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Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for ScoreStreak 6/11/14
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Total Bases
Our system has David Ortiz ranked as far and away the #1 option for total bases tonight, and for good reason. Since 2013, Ortiz has a .417 wOBA and .285 ISO vs. right-handed pitchers. Tonight he’ll be facing Josh Tomlin. Tomlin has been decent this year and has only a .261 wOBA vs. left-handed batters, however, when he does give up hits to them, it’s usually as home run as evidenced by his very-high 1.71 HR/9 innings to LHB. I think Ortiz is in a good spot to homer today, and with the short slate tonight, Ortiz is a solid option for total bases.
E5 has been crushing the ball since early May, and tonight squares off against Kevin Gausman. Since 2013, Encarnacion has been an elite hitter vs. right-handed pitchers as evidenced by his .396 wOBA and .292 ISO vs. them. Gausman is a highly-ranked prospect and has shown flashes of brilliance in his brief major league career, however he does give up a .325 wOBA and 1.82 HR/9 to RHB since 2013, but note that this is a pretty small sample size. As I noted in my picks yesterday, inexperienced pitchers are more prone to make mistake pitches or hang pitches, and more times than not, elite hitters like Encarnacion deposit those mistake pitches into the seats. Jose Bautista would be my 2A today for all of the same reasons I like Encarnacion today, so it really comes down to a matter of preference between the two of them.
Hits
Cano has made a living hitting vs. right-handed pitchers, especially right-handed pitchers like Chase Whitley, who he’ll be facing tomorrow. Since 2013, Cano has a stellar .333 batting average vs. right-handed pitchers. It does come as the result of a fairly high .340 batting average on balls in play, however it’s supported by a very solid 24.7% line drive rate and a very low 10% strikeout rate, so he makes solid contact and puts the ball in play frequently, which is about all you can ask for when it comes to a high-variance category like hits. For his part, Chase Whitley gives up a .292 batting average on an extremely high .359 BABIP vs. LHB. His strikeout rate is also an average 6.94 K/9 vs. LHB. To me, this is an ideal matchup that presents as good of an opportunity for a hitter to get at least two hits as we’re going to see today, so roll Cano out there with confidence.
Reyes has historically hit RHP very well. Today he goes up against Kevin Gausman, the same pitcher as referenced in my Edwin Encarnacion pick above. Since 2013, Reyes has hit .302 vs. RHP with a .325 BABIP, a solid 23.8% line drive rate and strikes out only 11.7% of the time vs. RHP. In his short big league career, Gausman has actually been pretty good vs. LHB, allowing only a .241 batting average against them, along with a .268 BABIP and a solid 8.49 K/9 vs. LHB. While not the ideal matchup for Reyes, since he’ll be hitting leadoff which should lead to 5 AB’s, one of which will likely be against the terrible Blue Jays bullpen. Reyes has been hitting extremely well lately and I like his chance to get at least one hit off of Gausman, and for the #2 slot in the hits category, one hit is all that’s needed.
Strikeouts
Scherzer is my #1 pitcher in the strikeouts category by a fairly large margin because once again today, ability meets opportunity. Much like Darvish yesterday, he’s one of the best strikeout pitchers in the game (as evidenced by his elite 10.34 K/9 this year) facing a team with one of the highest strikeout percentages (23.5% or .01% less than the Marlins). The White Sox do have a pretty good offense and Scherzer has been getting hit around a little more than usual lately, but the Tigers willingness to let him throw around 120 pitches means that he’ll have the opportunity to get his K’s, and that’s the only thing we’re worried about in the strikeouts category.
Our system actually has Sale ranked 3rd behind Scherzer and Samardzjia today, however I have much more confidence in Sale reaching the 7 strikeout total needed for the #2 slot to nab the points in the strikeouts category than I do Samardzjia. Samardzjia has been really up and down with his K’s this year, and is facing a Pirates team who he struck out only 3 batters against in their meeting earlier this year. While Sale’s matchup vs. the Tigers isn’t ideal, he is averaging 9.97 K/9 this year, and in his career vs. the Tigers, he’s averaged just over a strikeout per inning. On a short-slate, sometimes you just have to go with the guy you think is the best even if on a normal day he wouldn’t be one of your top choices. This is the case for me with Sale today, and when I find myself having to make a choice like that, I usually just go with the guy that has the most talent, and Sale has a world of it when it comes to striking hitters out.
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