Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, and DraftStreet for 6/15/14

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Pitchers

Corey Kluber FanDuel 8500 DraftKings 8800 DraftStreet 18856
Kluber has been nothing short of brilliant since a few hiccups early in the season. He's striking out close to 11 batters per 9 and limiting the walks. Frankly, he's putting up ace numbers and has been one of the best pitcher's in the game. The xFIP is 2.75, more than a half run lower than his ERA. And the Red Sox are a sneaky team to target for pitchers. These guys don't go up and down the lineup like they have in the past and are middle of the pack against righties. It isn't a super safe play, but nothing today feels that way. I'll take the K upside Kluber presents without facing one of the top flight offensive teams. He's underpriced a little because he's playing the Red Sox. Take advantage.

Ian Kennedy FanDuel 6800 DraftKings 9100 DraftStreet 18397
He's coming off a rough outing against the Phillies last time around. That was in a hitter's park and Kennedy is a flyball pitcher used to the friendly confines of Petco. He should feel right at home in CitiField. The Mets rank near the bottom of the league in wOBA against righties and just generally stink. I'm buying on Kennedy on the matchup as well as his prices and the awesome K rate and peripherals this season. He's got about a 4.5/1 K/BB rate and the ballpark should keep the flyballs from going over the fence. I'd consider him in cash games.

James Shields FanDuel 8400 DraftKings 9000 DraftStreet 18115
I had a whole genius write up done on this Shields play and it got deleted right before post so now I am annoyed. I know you don't care about this, just venting. Anyway, it centered around how this was a risky pick. The White Sox are good against rigthies, but they also strike out a ton which boosts Shields's upside. It's a close one and I would only do it in GPPs, but is Shields can limit the damage and not extend innings he can put up a decent amount of points in this one. It relies on the K's almost completely, and that is a risk.

Marco Estrada FanDuel 7300 DraftKings 7500 DraftStreet 15456
Not in love with this pick, but it feels like awfully slim picking around the pitching ranks today. We'll have to try and pick some value off the margins. Estrada is just meh. Which is negated to some degree by the Reds equal amounts of meh. The system likes Estradas chances of turning in a solid game today, I suspect because the bottom of the Reds order, especially against righties, is less than major league caliber.

 

Catchers

Carlos Ruiz FanDuel 2500 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 5006
Chooch has monster splits against lefties. Basically over the last year he's OPS'd over .900 which is almost .300 points higher than what he does against righties. All of his stats come from when he hits against lefties. (Well, not all, but most of the good ones) You need to have him on your radar in Citizen's Bank Park against the lefty Wood. Not convinced? 152 wRC+ against that hand over the last year. It's on today and the price is so advantageous. DFS is made for situations like this.

Buster Posey FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 6825
Said yesterday that Posey's price had dropped to a point where he was also very much in play against righties even on the wrong side of the split. He paid off in a big way and I'm going back to the well again today. Juan Nicasio is trashy, not as bad as Bergman, but still bad. The park doesn't do Posey any favors, but the price is ranging low for one of the best offensive catchers in the game.

Derek Norris FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 3800 DraftStreet 4857
Lefty killer through and through. Norris is one part of the Athletics' catching duo that platoon splits the shit out of opposing pitchers. Norris is great in this respect and he pounds southpaws with a .425 wOBA against them over the last year. The problem with Norris (and Jao when he plays) is they get pinch hit for late in the game depending on matchup. The A's are good (or bad depending on your POV) in this respect. It eats away at his ABs and is what puts him a little lower on the list.

Strongly, strongly Consider Evan Gattis who I probably could have done a whole write up for but there are a lot of good catcher picks today.

 

First Basemen

Anthony Rizzo FanDuel 3500 DraftKings 4500 DraftStreet 8266
Feels like I'm writing about him everyday. The price just refuses to catch up to his skill set and he keeps running up against shitty pitchers in good hitter's parks. Those make for a solid ingredients we want to stir together and turn into a recipe for some profit (see what I did there? Literary shit.) A.J. Burnett's strikeout stuff is gone while his walk stuff is very much thriving. Coincidentally, Rizzo's BB rate is through the roof this year as compared to his career averages. Love this play today.

Adrian Gonzalez FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 6535
I can't figure Bronson Arroyo out this season. For his career he gets manhandled by lefties, and then all of a sudden this year it's righties he can't get out. Who knows? Our system is definitely working in some part on his career splits against lefties because of the sample size. But this season is bringing it a little more to the middle. On a weak first base day this play seems fine and I think the Dodgers run a train on Arroyo anyway.

Kendrys Morales FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 4100 DraftStreet 6156
Joe Mauer FanDuel 2400 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 4393
A little off the board here and first base isn't the worst place to save some money today. I'm not in love with many of the big tag options either because of matchup or price. I'd consider playing either of these guys today against Porcello. The park isn't ideal, but both come in around punt prices on the better side of the split.

Consider Mark Reynolds

 

Second Basemen

Ben Zobrist FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 3500 DraftStreet 6334
Recommended him on Friday and if you played him you most likely profited in some way on the night. He is still coming in real low in terms of salary and faces Brad Peacock who while striking plenty of guys out, also walks the ballpark to the tune of close to five batters per nine. That's about as high as you'll get for a starter. Would probably consider Zobrist more of a GPP play though because of Peacock's K rate which can hamper bigger innings.

Anthony Rendon FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 4500 DraftStreet 5968
Is a 3B on DraftStreet, but what hampers you there gives you crazy position flexibility on a site like DraftKings. Rendon is an extreme splits kind of guy and even though Jamie Garcia has been decent this season, he is very much in play as are the heavily-right handed Nationals.

Robinson Cano FanDuel 3800 DraftKings 4700 DraftStreet 7602
A little lower in our system but from a points/ $ perspective but wanted to put him out there because the raw points rank among the best in the system. Zobrist actually ranks higher today in both metrics, but Cano is a guy I would play against Nick Martinez who has some of the worst peripherals you'll see from a starting pitcher. He walks out as many batters as he strikes out (4 per 9 for each, both horrible numbers). What has me not wanting to stack Mariners is that they're a lite-hitting bunch in their own right. But Cano offers some upside here and is still affordable.

Howie Kendrick FanDuel 2400 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 5411
Is significantly better against left handed pitching, about seventy points higher in terms of OPS. He carries a 130 wRC+ over the last year against that hand his price, in some spots, has dropped close to the minimum. Mike Minor is no slouch which keeps me from outright playing Kendrick across the board at these prices on this side of the split.

Consider Jason Kipnis

 

Shortstops

J.J. Hardy FanDuel 2200 DraftKings 3300 DraftStreet 4251
One day he will hit a home run and we will rejoice in the streets like a freed people coming out from under the oppression of a ruthless and evil dictator. It will be that kind of day my friends. And I want to be around for it. God damn it, I want to be there. Today is the day. I can feel it. JA Happ in Camden Yards. Get your noisemakers and pop guns ready. It's going to be a celebration bitches.

Brad Miller FanDuel 2400 DraftKings 3000 DraftStreet 3371
Miller's biggest issue is the strikeout. Which makes him a perfect target today as he is a big time favorite to K less than usual when facing Nick Martinez. Miller is running something awful in Babip this season at .231 and I think there is some regression to come. It starts today. Mitigating his swing and misses while also facing a guy with control issues puts him in a much better spot. He's been bad this season for sure. This is a risky play but I think the upside is there.

Jose Reyes FanDuel 3900 DraftKings 5000 DraftStreet 7524
Chris Tillman is not good. This is a fact. His xFIP sits in the high fours, his command is gone and he can't strike people out. Plus he's a flyball pitcher hurling in one of the best hitter's parks in baseball. This is a lethal combo and makes many of the Blue Jays in play today. Reyes isn't the highest in terms of dollar value today, but his raw points are there and I think the Jays put up some runs.

Consider Jean Segura and Asdrubal Cabrera

 

 

Third Basemen

Josh Donaldson FanDuel 4000 DraftKings 4700 DraftStreet 8434
Our system isn't too terribly high on him but I'm willing to make an exception for a guy who dominates lefties. Vidal Nuno is bad against everyone (actually a little worse against lefties) but mediocre enough to keep Donaldson as a solid pick. His 198 wRC+ and .442 wOBA against lefties over the last year tells the whole story. Again, from a points per dollar standpoint he doesn't rank as high as I'd think. But the value should be there.

Manny Machado FanDuel 2700 DraftKings 3400 DraftStreet 5173
Seems like he might be kind of a dick, but Machado has been peppering the ball recently, and this might be his lowest price point for the rest of the season. I say that because he is facing JA Happ - a young man who holds the dubious distinction of having 38 Ks against 24 BB this year in 57 IP, and the unfortunate biological condition of being left handed and facing Manny Machado.

Kyle Seager FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 3800 DraftStreet 5858
Here's the thing - if Kyle Seager can't take advantage of a dude who doesn't strike anyone out AND who has walked more guys than he's K'd - I'm a monkey's uncle. Seager and the Ms can still really hit right handers in spite of Seager's recent funk, and if those liners find gloves, don't blame me.

Pedro Alvarez FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4100 DraftStreet 5877
Listen - I'm not one to advocate for Alvarez on Alvarez crime, but Pedro's biggest weakness (striking out) is mitigated by Henderson's biggest weakness (not striking anyone out). Pedro is most pleased to face right handed pitchers who stay around the zone - and he could realize his tremendous upside in this one.

Consider Aramis Ramiez and Carlos Santana

 

Outfielders

Justin Upton FanDuel 3800 DraftKings 5200 DraftStreet 6848
Upton has turned into a boom or bust guy, but considering who he's facing, I'm picturing a much higher chance of boom than bust. Hector Santiago has been all over the place this year. Upton has bombed lefties to the tune of a .565 wOBA this year (lol) and his career number of .398 isn't too shabby, either.

Christian Yelich FanDuel 3800 DraftKings 4100 DraftStreet 5464
Yelich has tortured right handing pitching over the course of his brief career, and Vance Worley was just incredibly bad last year. Is Worley really going to rush in and do anything to stop tough lefties when he had a 4.62 K/9 last year? Crystal ball says, "No."

Angel Pagan FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 6424
Nicasio has simply been a nightmare wherever he's pitched this year, and Pagan is an underrated fantasy and real life player. Pagan has sported a 121 wRC+ against righties this year, and again, that's all righties - most of whom do not suck as bad as one Juan Nicasio.

Jay Bruce FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 5326
Don't look now, but Jay Bruce has extra base hits in 3 of his last 4 games, and he might just be saving his season. You're still getting insane upside production at mid-tier prices - so I'll be taking advantage of a buyer's market whenever he is facing a right hander.

Yoenis Cespedes FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4500 DraftStreet 6915
Our projection system doesn't like Cespedes as much as we do - and that's probably because it often has a tough time projecting foreign converts. Needless to say, Cespedes is a true lefty killer, and Sr. Nuno isn't going to be the exception to that developing rule. Pretty sure Cespedes hit a ball 859 ft. the last time he faced Nuno as well.

Austin Jackson FanDuel 2600 DraftKings 3700 DraftStreet 5376
Jackson is a reverse platoon split guy like you don't see too often, and now he gets to face a 5.70 ERA meatball tosser. He'd be higher up in the list if it weren't for recent performance - but I love Jackson as a low risk low reward type for double-ups.

Melky Cabrera FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 4500 DraftStreet 7616
The Melk man is probably the truest platoon-neutral player in the game, and can provide value for you in a number of different ways. Chris Tillman can provide value to your fantasy hitters in all different ways. A walk? Sure! How about a home run, my good sir? A 3 hit game? Why not!

Desmond Jennings FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 3700 DraftStreet 5502
Jennings prefers pitchers of the opposite hand, but I love him in Rays stacks against the wild (and generally bad) Brad Peacock. Price here is quite low for the potential upside, as well.
Strongly consider Jayson Werth

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