Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, and DraftStreet for 6/19/14

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Pitchers

Tough day for pitching in both the early and late slates. You are getting mid-tier pitchers facing above average offenses. This is a bit of a minefield. No real obvious plays as far as I can see.

Chris Archer FanDuel 7300 DraftKings 9000 DraftStreet 16999
Archer has a couple of things going in his favor today. He's pitching in one of the best pitcher's parks in all of baseball in Tampa Bay. The park factors have it below average to both sides of the plate (worse for righties) and this helps the Rays from really succumbing to blow em up innings. Archer has been fine this season outside of an elevated walk rate. This makes him a bit of a risk, especially in terms of going late in games. He's made it up to seven innings only once in his last ten starts. The walks kill pitch counts, but he faces a team in the Astros who strike out more than league average against righties. Again, this is a tough day for pitching.

Scott Kazmir FanDuel 8600 DraftKings 8400 DraftStreet 18885
The Red Sox are merely a middle of the pack team this year against lefties. All of the things that went right for them offensively last year aren't clicking in the same way. And though they do have a few dudes that can light up lefties (Pedroia and Bogearts to name a couple), as a whole they are a team you can target in terms of opposing pitcher. Kazmir's 3.5:1 K:BB is perfectly acceptable and he's continuing to cut down on his free passes. This is such a great sign for a guy who was known for control issues early in his career. I like, don't love this play today.

Zack Wheeler FanDuel 6800 DraftKings 7400 DraftStreet 15752
Turned in a rough one last time around against the woeful Padres, an outing that I have firmly slotted in my memory because I just happened to play him everywhere. But I'm back on the horse today. Wheeler has a high ceiling (low floor) because he has true K stuff. When it's clicking he can pile on the strikeouts. But the command isn't always there as he walks nearly four batters per nine. This is about at the breaking point for a starter and Wheeler flirts with disaster at times. But the Marlins K a ton, almost 24% of the time, against righties. It's an acceptable risk on a short pitching day.

Homer Bailey FanDuel 8400 DraftKings 8800 DraftStreet 15692
Because you'll need at least one pitcher if you're playing the early slate. Grin and bear it. I'm sure everyone out there has a Homer Bailey bad beat story to relate. That's the problem with this guy. He flaunts his upside and then brings the heavy downside. The home runs are killing him this year as the rest of his numbers are fine. The Pirates a good hitting squad, it's just that the early slate is tough and I wouldn't pay for Sanchez against the Royals who hardly every K.

Consider Zach McAllister

 

Catchers

Brian McCann FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 3500 DraftStreet 4201
Is really struggling this year, though he had a good game last night (against a lefty of all people). McCann was brought to the Yankees for his supposed offense. This hasn't come to fruition though there are some luck factors playing into this, namely his .231 Babip which should continue to regress to his career mean. The Yanks have moved him down in the order, somewhat hampering his AB and counting stat expectation (didn't hurt last night) so there's that. But by and large I think he's a great price against Hutchison playing in Yankee Stadium.

Devin Mesoraco FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 4100 DraftStreet 6563
He's cooled off from his blistering start and the prices have too. He isn't a great play but the early slate of games is very weak with value on catchers. Mesoraco offers a chance to grab the better side of his split even if it isn't the best side of Jeff Locke's. Mesoraco is coming in the mid tier of catchers and I think the Reds will put up some runs today. If I don't go with him, I'll probably completely punt the position because I just don't think it's advantageous to put a lot of money into this position today even with the discount on pitching.

Consider Miguel Montero

 

First Basemen

Miguel Cabrera FanDuel 4600 DraftKings 5600 DraftStreet 9225
I can see putting some money into first base though. Miggy faces off against Danny Duffy and I think we are buying him at somewhat discounted prices today considering the pitching situation and the overall player pool on the early games. Miggy is in a bit of a power drought with only one home run in his last twelve games. It's not like the price is cheap mind you, but I think you can more than fit it considering he's got close to an 1.100 OPS against lefties over the last year. The Tigers have bitten me before on seemingly obvious stacks, but I'll go back to the well again.

Joey Votto FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 6132
It's worth it to mention again that Jeff Locke is actually much worse against lefties in his career, making for an odd reverse splits situation. This actually lines up perfectly with Votto who hits lefties really well with a career 142 wRC+ and .885 OPS against them. Votto's hit in every game since getting off the DL so there doesn't seem to be any lingering injury concerns. The big issue for him has been the power, or lack thereof over the short term. I still think he more than pays his price, but the upside is limited if he's keeping the ball in the park. Too much needs to go right.

Adam LaRoche FanDuel 3400 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 6014
This is a top play in the late slate of games. Laroche can only be considered against right handers of course but Gavin Floyd is not slouch. Believe me, I want him to be but the guy's been solid this season. I still like Laroche though because the walk rate is even with the strikeout rate (no easy feat) and he's hitting for power. Floyd isn't as good as his sub 3 ERA would suggest and makes a nice option without breaking the bank.

Consider Mark Teixeira

 

Second Basemen

Ian Kinsler FanDuel 3500 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 7397
I've been over this many times this season essentially every time Kinsler faces a lefty, but here we go again. His splits greatly favor him hitting against southpaws and Danny Duffy's numbers suggest he'd rather not face righties while on the mound. Kinsler has the highest expectation for any second basemen according to our system and I think you should have some exposure to him in cash games at least today. The splits have even out a little this season, but for his career his 136 wRC+ is 30 points higher than for righties. Will be mentioning some more Tigers today and Kinsler should be on your radar.

Dustin Pedroia FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4600 DraftStreet 6349
For the late slate of games I want to target Pedroia simply because he continues a solid run against lefties even with the reduced power. His 124 wRC+ and .814 OPS are acceptable from the second base position and the lack of homers has kept his price in check. That's a double-edged sword of course but his HR/FB% is trending just a smidge low. Doesn't stand to get a big boost from playing in Oakland, but I think you can consider him just on the splits.

Consider Jason Kipnis and Chase Utley

 

Shortstops

Jimmy Rollins FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 6331
Shelby Miller has been awful this season, sporting an xFIP in the mid 4's while lowering his strike out and increasing his walks. In case you're new, these are bad, bad trends and point to something being just wrong with the guy. I actually think there are some decent Phillies stacks to be had today because Miller is worse than his ERA suggests. Rollins is walking at the highest rate of his career, something he can for sure take advantage of today with Miller and he's hitting for power as well with more home runs so far than he had all of last year. Always a tough position to fill but you can go to him in the late slate.

Asdrubal Cabrera FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 5972
Am not psyched about this pick because he has a tough matchup against Garrett Richards today, but you need to start someone at shortstop in the early slate don't you? He rates out highest in our system for late slate shortstops even against a guy who has K upside. Cabrera has a small combination of power and speed that can help him turn in big performances. This pick though is a little more a war of attrition at the position as no one stands out in particular in the early slate of games.

Consider Xander Bogaerts

 

Third Basemen

David Wright FanDuel 3500 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 5804
Finally went yard on Monday after an extended drought so it's nice to know he can at least still do it. Wright is a classic extreme splits guy. He's serviceable against righties and just awesome against lefties. Over the last year there is a nearly a .300 point difference in his lefty/right OPS numbers with the former coming in over 1K. Even this year Wright is struggling, but it ain't because of him facing lefties. He owns a 173 wRC+ and .975 OPS this season. Maybe he just hasn't faced enough of them to yank up his other numbers. This is a fantastic play at the prices against Andrew Heaney a top prospect but a rookie nonetheless.

Nick Castellanos FanDuel 2400 DraftKings 3500 DraftStreet 4082
Whenever you see Kinsler on our list you need only scroll down a bit to find Castellanos. Like his diamond mate, Nicky C goes gangbusters over lefties with the latter's splits offering a much more extreme range. Even in a relatively small sample size this year Castellanos is raking to a 147 wRC+ and .389 wOBA against lefties. Get on a Tiger stack today. It's going to happen sooner than later that this predominantly right-handed lineup tees off against a mediocre lefty.

Consider Matt Carpenter and Pedro Alvarez

 

Outfielders

Alejandro De Aza FanDuel 2500 DraftKings 3500 DraftStreet 5301
Adam Eaton FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 3700 DraftStreet 4897
I like both of these guys as cheaper plays against the rookie Yohan Pino. Both Eaton and de Aza have a reduced price tag (de Aza because of some Babip issues.) and are in a good spot today. They each carry some speed (not really any power) but our system thinks they are coming at discounts today against the rookie.

Jay Bruce FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 4689
Remember that Jeff Locke is a reverse splits guy and that you should be taking a look at some Reds' lefties today. Bruce is worse against that hand but some of this comes out in the wash because of Locke's skill set. Bruce has big power upside, something you're looking for to win big GPPs and I think some people will be off of him because they'll see the L/L matchup and assume it's a stayaway. Could make a nice contrarian option.

Melky Cabrera FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 6973
Think David Phelps could get tagged in this one. Melky's been solid this season, racking up the hits, popping in for some power and just taking advantage of getting to hit in front of guys like Bautista and Encarnacion. Sitting ahead of those two guys in the lineup will always carry with it some value. Today against Phelps it could really pay off.

This is from yesterday but with the rainout the ideas still hold true
Kole Calhoun FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 3600 DraftStreet 5050
Josh Hamilton FanDuel 3500 DraftKings 4500 DraftStreet 6919
I've said this before but every five days it's worth repeating. Just Masterson is a Hall of Famer against righties. Unfortunately, some players have learned to hit from the other side of the plate and that's a problem for the guy. A big problem. This season lefties are rocking a .382 wOBA against the guy. This is as bad a number as you'll see from pretty much any pitcher with a consistent major league gig. But he blows righties away. The Halos don't have too many lefties in their lineup, but these two guys who own righties on their own will be hitting in the first 4-5 spots in the order. They have big upside on Masterson's deficiency alone.

Some other cheap options with good matchups Domonic Brown, Austin Jackson and Chris Young

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