Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

06/30/2014
Doug Norrie

Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, and DraftStreet for 6/30/14

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Pitchers

Some really solid options and value going here today.

Hisashi Iwakuma FanDuel 8000 DraftKings 8900 DraftStreet 15810
Ooh boy do the Astros strike out a lot against righties. Their 24% K% is tied with the Marlins for worst in the league. Iwakuma isn't going to blow it out of the box in terms of strikeouts but he also is a control freak, walking less than a batter per nine. That's about as good as you'll see and his ability to stay in the zone makes up for his lack of K's because he can go late in games. The Astros can hit a little, but again it's mitigated by the strikeout rate. Solid cash game play here. Editor's note: Iwakuma is going tomorrow with Walker going today. This would downgrade Iwakuma for today as he will accrue you zero points. Nod to Matt Null for the catch. 

Mat Latos FanDuel 7800 DraftKings 9400 DraftStreet 17023
The strikeouts haven't been there in his first three starts off the DL. Granted, two of those games were against the first and seventh top teams in the majors against righty pitching, so I'm not looking into it too terribly much. A little more troubling is the velocity is down a tick from his career averages. Could be him working his way back. Or it could be something worse. This game will show us a great deal because the Padres are other-worldly bad, ranking dead last in the league against righties by a fairly large margin. I'm willing to roll it on Latos in this spot because the opponent is so trashy and the park really helps him (and all the revenge game!).

Jesse Hahn FanDuel 6300 DraftKings 8300 DraftStreet 16114
Has basically come out of nowhere to put up some of the better pitching numbers around in his short major league stint. He is K-ing more than ten batters per nine and the 2.65 xFIP is right in line with the low ERA. The Reds aren't an ideal matchup, but if you looking for a slightly cheaper option and chasing the K, this is a good place to start.

Strongly consider Jake Arrieta and Alex Wood who I honestly could have done a whole write ups about today and will be playing a decent amount.

 

Catchers

Wilson Ramos FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 5679
He's got some pretty advantageous splits going against lefties for his career and this season he's only furthered the idea that these are the hands you want to target for Ramos. His career 122 wRC+ and .800 OPS mean he's got some upside against Yohan Flande today. Flande has actually been more unlucky than bad with the mid 7's ERA so he isn't a pushover by any means. But on a shorter slate at a weak position we can take a long look at Ramos.

A.J. Pierzynski FanDuel 2200 DraftKings 3500 DraftStreet 3107
This is primarily a price thing. The catching position is super thin and I'll be mainly playing Ramos because of the splits. But if you are looking to just completely punt it then roll with Pierz. He doesn't have a huge strikeout issue. It's more of a hitting issue, but at the minimums he has just a hint of power that makes it kind of not as gross as you'd think. Whatever. Catcher sucks today.

 

First Basemen

FWIW I kind of hate this position today too
Anthony Rizzo FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 5200 DraftStreet 10215
Our system isn't over the moon about the guy, but I didn't like many of the other potential bats ahead of him. Rizzo is quickly becoming a superstar at a power position and Jake Peavy has really struggled this year especially in his command. The walk rate is way up presenting an advantage for Rizzo who's altered his approach to include a ton of patience. He's OPS'ing over .900 and though Fenway doesn't play great for lefties, I think that downside is mitigated by Peavy's BB rate. *Note: His price on DraftStreet is too high. I won't be playing him there.

Kendrys Morales FanDuel 2700 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 4844
Because I think first base is a bit of a landmine today I think you can go cheap here with Morales against Duffy. Splits aren't completely in his favor against the lefty, but the positional options are scarce with many of the better bats in less than spectacular matchups.

Consider Joey Votto

 

Second Basemen

Robinson Cano FanDuel 3700 DraftKings 4700 DraftStreet 6179
Getting a little weird in Seattle right now. Can't imagine this is what they were paying all this money for. I mean I'm sure they expected a little power decline because of the shift in park. But not like this. This is something else all together. The HR/FB% has been basically cut in half. I suspect some of this is bad luck but the groundball rate is way up which is a red flag. But even with the decline the OPS is still around .800 with the Babip running low (thanks to the GB%). Against McHugh I think you can take a stab at him with Houston playing well with power for lefties.

Ben Zobrist FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 5215
I'm a long time Zobrist apologist so take this is a moderate grain of salt. But I love the walk rate and his position at the top of the Rays' order. David Phelps is one of the lesser pitchers going today and Zobrist gets the right side of his split in a park that really helps power to lefties. Phelps' walk rate limits Zobrist's downside because he should be able to reach base.

Strongly consider Brian Dozier

 

Shortstops

J.J. Hardy FanDuel 2500 DraftKings 3600 DraftStreet 5199
Finally hit a home run so we at least know he can do it. Whether he does it again is up to debate. Personally, I think there are a few left. The rest of his batter ball profile doesn't have any of those warning signs. It looks similar to his career averages and Camden Yards is always a great place to jack one. Hardy is still cheap as can be in spots and Joe Saunders makes trash look positively inviting.

Ian Desmond FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 6071
Splits slighty favor his facing lefties and Yohan Flande isn't a dude we should necessarily avoid even is some of the dude's peripherals are kind of on point. Desmond's been on a power tear this season with 14 already and some speed to boot. The price is still advantageous and he's a nice cash game option in a weaker field.

Consider Elvis Andrus

 

Third Basemen

Ryan Zimmerman FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 4500 DraftStreet 6629
Been running bad in Babip since coming back and should see some regression there that helps his overall slash line. He's been much better for his career against lefties with close to a 140 wRC+ and .900 OPS. This is a good spot for Zimmerman on a day that's a bit difficult to find quality upside bats. I think he's the top play for the money at the position.

Manny Machado FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 4100 DraftStreet 5078
Bat's been coming around lately with a couple of home runs in the short term. This is a great sign from a guy who'd been really struggling in the early season. Machado might not be the guy who hit a gajillion doubles earlier last season. But he's got a professional bat, is better against lefties and Joe Saunders is Joe Saunders: a soft-tossing lefty with an xFIP over five.

Consider David Freese

 

Outfielders

Nelson Cruz FanDuel 4000 DraftKings 5100 DraftStreet 9360
Adam Jones FanDuel 4100 DraftKings 5100 DraftStreet 8392
I'll have a ton of these guys. Every single metric for daily success is in their favor except for maybe price. But on FanDuel they are bargains and the raw upside for both makes it worth it to try and squeeze them in. Both hit lefties, especially Cruz and Joe Saunders blows bad. Camden Yards is one of the best park for righty power and the top of the lineup should be able to do some damage. These guys will be heavy cash and GPP plays especially considering many people will be punting some infield positions because of the matchup. Getting two high upside outfielders on the same squad in the OF is an incredible advantage today and I don't plan on fading this too much.

Jayson Werth FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 4100 DraftStreet 5859
Struggling with the power for sure. Hasn't hit a home run since June 11th and the LD% has dipped a bit. But man am I buying a ton of him at these prices against the lefty Flande. Werth's overall numbers are suffering a but from not having faced enough lefties this season. He's only got 72 PA's against them and the results have been right in line with his career lines, i.e. super solid. Werth has a .370 wOBA against lefties and his career number 146 wRC+ is a reason to buy cheap today. I will personally have plenty of shares here because the salary makes it easy to fit guys like Cruz and Jones.

Kole Calhoun FanDuel 3400 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 8013
Josh Hamilton FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 7403
Oh yeah. Let's get on both of these guys against Hector Noesi, a flyball pitcher going in U.S. Cellular, a field that plays up power to all sides of the plate. Trout factors in here as well, but the splits and price on these two guys have me excited. Noesi doesn't strike out many batters, has n xFIP in the 4's and let's up too many line drives to prevent the damage from being done today by the Halos.

Consider Shin-Soo Choo
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