Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, and DraftStreet for 7/8/14

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Pitchers

Julio Teheran FanDuel 9300 DraftKings 9900 DraftStreet 22075
I should start by saying that Teheran isn’t anywhere close to as good as his 2.29 ERA would lead you to believe. His xFIP is much more in the mid three’s area. That being said, he’s still a solid deal on a day that finding solid pitching value is anything but easy. The Mets are close the bottom of the league in team wOBA against righties. They strikeout about 21% of the time which keeps Teheran’s K potential solid. I also like how Teheran doesn’t walk anyone and has solid peripherals with a 4:1 K:BB ratio. This is a safe-ish place for cash games and I’m sticking him in those lineups today.

Phil Hughes FanDuel 6900 DraftKings 8800 DraftStreet 14799
Think old Phil has enjoyed the move away from Yankee Stadium? He’s shown a dramatic improvement in one key area and that is the free passes. He is walking less than a batter an innings, a direct result of pounding the zone, no longer afraid of the ball flying into the cheap seats in Yankee Stadium. The strikeout numbers are the same and the xFIP has dropped considerably. He is just a different pitcher, allowing his flyball style to play in a new stadium. And tonight he heads to Safeco to face a team in the bottom half of the league in wOBA. I love the new Hughes. You should too.

Sonny Gray FanDuel 8600 DraftKings 8100 DraftStreet 17362
This is a situation where an okay pitcher is in an okay matchup and we get okay value. Nothing blowing me away here, but there is a group of pitchers in the middle who all sort of look alike and we need to find ways to get even a sliver of separation. Gray's xFIP is in the mid 3's, he strikes out almost eight batters per nine but the walks are a bit of an issue. The Giants rank in the bottom third of the league against righty pitching and are a weaker hitting bunch in general. Price is right on Gray but don't expect a dominating performance.

Consider Masahiro Tanaka though he is expensive and the Indians rank up there against righties and don't strike out a ton.

 

Catchers

Brian McCann FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 3600 DraftStreet 6579
Things are beginning to look up huh? He’s starting to hit and the price hasn’t yet caught up. Progressive Field plays up power to lefties and Trevor Bauer, while a guy who can rack up the K’s, also has control issues and is prone to getting kind of rocked. McCann’s been a victim of some bad luck this season. The regression is starting to happen. Hope you’ve been buying.

Rene Rivera FanDuel 2300 DraftKings 2800 DraftStreet 4259
Yasmani Grandal FanDuel 2500 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 4247
Catcher is a tough position to fill most nights so I think I’m going to go super cheap with whoever gets the start against Franklin Morales in Coors. Both of these guys hit lefties better than righties and you are getting them at punt prices in the best hitter’s park in the league. Not bad reasoning by any means.

Jason Castro FanDuel 2600 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 4501
Carlos Corporan FanDuel 2500 DraftKings 2700 DraftStreet 4973
Kind of the same thinking here. Phil Irwin is making only his second major league start and his time in the minors has been inauspicious, mostly spent walking a ton of guys with the occasional run of strikeouts. I’m buying on the fact that he’s a quad A pitcher and both of these guys are coming super cheap.

 

First Basemen

Paul Goldschmidt FanDuel 5200 DraftKings 5700 DraftStreet 8765
First base isn’t a strong as normal today and this is one guy I’m willing to pay for because of the great splits against lefties. He’s expensive, but I think he’s worth it because of how great his platoon split is and the matchup against Brad Hand in Chase Field offers a ton of power upside. Honestly, even at his elevated salaries, he’s still a value play across the industry. If you are spending on anyone, he and Stanton below are the guys.

Anthony Rizzo FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4900 DraftStreet 5988
Rizzo, in the midst of his coming out season, gets to face David Holmberg, a dude who was garbage in the minors and I don't expect that to get any better in the majors. Holmberg had big time walk issues in the lower levels and that's been Rizzo's best area of growth. He's taking free passes 13% of the time. That could also be because the rest of the Cubs lineup is weak. Or it could be a new approach. Either way it's good news because he combines that with great power and you have a solid play.

Jon Singleton FanDuel 2500 DraftKings 3700 DraftStreet 4511
Picked him yesterday and that turned out pretty well didn't it? Much of the same thought process here today as he's coming cheap against a wild and untested pitcher. Irwin's K% is a little higher than I'd like to see against a guy like Singleton, but those numbers were in the minors. Combine that with Irwin issuing a ton of walks and the Astros could be in for a big day.

Consider Adam Laroche

 

Second Basemen

Dustin Pedroia FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4900 DraftStreet 6909
Pedroia just hasn’t been himself this season, against righties. But against lefties he’s got an OPS in the .800’s and is actually walking more than he’s striking out. Many around here know that for better or worse, I love picking on John Danks. I know he is close in his splits and righties don’t necessarily dominate him. But Pedroia’s success against lefties does enough to outweigh that and he’s a solid value today.

Aaron Hill FanDuel 2600 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 5018
This is a punt play that I’m buying based on matchup and the hopes that Hill’s splits start to come around. He has been pretty bad this season, but the Babip and Hr/FB% against lefties is on the low side and Brad Hand has an ERA in the sixes. Chase Field plays great to all sides for power and you can grab Hill on the ultra cheap.

Tommy La Stella FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 3400 DraftStreet 6043
I’ve been saying it all the time lately, but any guy who walks more than he strikes out is a dude to keep an eye on. Especially when that guy faces Jacob deGrom who owns an unspectacular 2:1 K:BB ratio.

Chase Utley FanDuel 3400 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 6316
Recommended him yesterday against Estrada and he more than paid the day. Going back to the well against Wily Peralta who also can let up the long ball, but is worse than Estrada in that he doesn’t have nearly the strike out stuff.

 

Shortstops

Jimmy Rollins FanDuel 2700 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 6143
He’s been worse against righties this season, but much of that is thanks to a low .255 Babip. For his career Rollins is more platoon neutral and I expect some of his numbers this season to climb as the Babip regresses to his career mean. Look for that to happen in a hitter’s ballpark against a pitcher who strikes out less than seven batters per nine. Rollins is a good, not great option at shortstop today who I can talk myself into because he’s far from cost prohibitive.

Xander Bogaerts FanDuel 2500 DraftKings 3300 DraftStreet 2793
He's slumping to beat the band. Man it's been a bad run for Xander over the last month or so. He's seen his numbers take a healthy nosedive along with the prices. It's the latter part that has me intrigued today. He is coming is at the minimums now and is facing a lefty, the better side of his split. Even for his struggles he has a 113 wRC+ against southpaws this season (aided by an early season slugfest) and the Babip has dropped to where he could be running a little bad over the short term. I'm buying.

Jean Segura FanDuel 2600 DraftKings 3700 DraftStreet 4515
Kind of hate even putting this play here but it's mostly a money thing. I don't see a ton of value at shortstop today as either guys are overpriced or are in bad matchups. This is the wrong side of his split but Kyle Kendrick stinks.

 

Third Basemen

Evan Longoria FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4700 DraftStreet 6553
Man is he killing lefties this season. His .982 OPS is right in line and even over his career averages and his .195 ISO is something that gets me more than a little excited. Jason Vargas is a low strikeout guy who doesn’t walk anyone and is able to induce weak contact. So he doesn’t necessarily get rocked. But Longoria’s splits are just too much to ignore here.

Martin Prado FanDuel 2600 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 5132
For his career Prado has been much better against lefty pitchers but is being held back a little this season by a Babip 25 or so points below his career averages. Honestly, there isn't a lot to love about Prado's performance this season, but I'm buying mostly on the career split numbers, a little run bad and the fact that Brad Hand is a couple different ways of garbage with a career xFIP over five and the ability to issue free passes like no other.

Matt Carpenter FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 6617
His bat was starting to come around there for a little while and the price is still at the buy point across the industry. Vance Worley is about 1.5 runs worse on his xFIP than his ERA and doesn't have big K potential. I'm still a fan of Carpenter's ability to get on base and his contact rate should be up this game.

 

Outfielders

Giancarlo Stanton FanDuel 4900 DraftKings 5600 DraftStreet 7551
If absolutely unbelievable numbers offend you I’d suggest moving down to the next guy on the list to spare yourself some stat porn. Here is comes. Stanton has been doing some dirty and disgusting things to left handed pitching. His OPS is creeping toward 1.200 and the wRC+ is a long way over 200. The wOBA is close to .500 and he’s basically just a manimal against lefty pitching. He faces Vidal Nuno in Chase Field and though you’ll have to spend today, the power upside is through the roof.

Carlos Quentin FanDuel 2400 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 6354
Chris Denorfia FanDuel 2200 DraftKings 3600 DraftStreet 5013
Enjoy Coors Field gentlemen. Because you won’t be on this list for awhile. Both of these guys have actually been super unlucky this season with Babips of .238 and .190 respectively. So that’s part of the reason for the Padre ineptitude. It isn’t the whole story, but it’s part of it. Coors is Coors obviously and both of these guys are better against lefties so there is reason to be optimistic. Franklin Morales is merely *meh and the prices on both of these guys are in the punt range.

Bryce Harper FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 5420
When he gets back into the *ahem* swing of things, these prices could look downright silly, especially the DraftStreet salary. Harper, if he could just stay healthy for an extended period, has all the requisite skills to help win you a tournament. He just needs to put it together. Today could be the start against Bud Norris, an average pitcher who is a bit susceptible to the long ball.

Marcell Ozuna FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 5808
This guy pounds lefties and is a great dude to pair with Stanton today at cheap prices, especially on DraftKings.

Shin-Soo Choo FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4800 DraftStreet 6970
Another weekday. Another weekday of us recommending Shin-Soo Choo.

Consider Jose Bautista and Jonny Gomes
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