Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, and DraftStreet for 7/12/14

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Pitchers

Stephen Strasburg FanDuel 8900 DraftKings 10700 DraftStreet 21003
I know he's better at home than on the road and Philadelphia isn't a place pitchers dream about pitching in. But the Phillies are second to last in the league against righty pitching with .288 team wOBA while striking out 21% of the time. Strasburg is in the midst of a Cy Young level season with a little run bad in the Babip. His xFIP is in the mid 2's with a crazy 6:1 K:BB ratio. That he's priced noticeably less than Price and Wainwright is fantastic news. He can be started in all formats. Great play.

Jesse Chavez FanDuel 7500 DraftKings 8200 DraftStreet 16569
The Mariners are a middle of the pack team against righties and this game going down in Safeco makes it all the better. Chavez has been a nice, somewhat out of nowhere, addition to the A's staff. He's got solid strikeout stuff, putting down almost a batter an inning. The xFIP is about a half run higher than the ERA so don't get overly fooled here, but he's still a solid option on the mound today.

Collin McHugh FanDuel 6900 DraftKings 7900 DraftStreet 14817
Speaking of sort of coming out of nowhere (That's a lot of "of's" in one sentence) we get McHugh who's been striking out guys like he's very much interested in staying in the majors. His 10.18 K/9 is a revelation and he faces the Red Sox, a team ranking in the bottom third of the league in team wOBA against righties. I think this will be a low percentage start today with high upside. That's the perfect scenario for a GPP where you can get some decent separation. Note: McHugh was placed on the DL this AM

Mike Minor FanDuel 7100 DraftKings 8000 DraftStreet 16797
Very risky but I think you can pull the trigger if you are looking for some upside. Minor's xFIP is nearly a full run better than his 4.54 ERA and he K's about a batter an inning. The Cubs have been a good hitting team against lefties, but also strike out an ungodly 26% of the time. If you want to shoot the moon on K's, this is the place to do it for mid level pricing.

Zach McAllister FanDuel 0 DraftKings 5700
Another place to go cheap and potentially grab a winner. The Tribe are a -150 favorite against the White Sox today and McAllister has shown flashes of swing and miss stuff. He's been decent and Chicago is prone to striking out. Not safe by any means, but McAllister is cheap across the board.

 

Catchers

Buster Posey FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 4945
Wade Miley’s actually been pretty good this year which is the only thing tempering me on Posey today. Well, that and the ballpark. So I guess it isn’t all perfect. But Buster definitely eats up lefty pitching to the degree that we can target him against effective pitchers. This isn’t a perfect play, but catcher is always tough and I’m willing to buy on discounts when the value is there.

Brian McCann FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 3700 DraftStreet 5419
Great hitter’s park and a pitcher who succumbs to the long ball way too often. I think if I were to go back and count McCann would be the guy I’ve written about this most this season. That’s because he’s been cheap from jump street thanks to a rash of bad luck. He’s still in the buy zone.

Yasmani Grandal FanDuel 2400 DraftKings 3600 DraftStreet 4924
For the night slate I think I will go cheap as can be as many of the options are fairly garbage-y. Grandal’s been better in his career against lefties and Maholm is just pretty bad across the board. The latter can’t strike anyone out and has an xFIP in the high 4’s. Target bad pitching always.

 

First Base

Carlos Santana FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 0
He’s a 3B/C on DraftKings and I’d feel great using him either of those slots on those sites. Santana is facing one of the game’s truly bad starters and I know Scott Carroll pitched well against the Red Sox the other night. I’ll take the historical numbers any day of the week. Santana’s 18% walk rate against righties is awesome and his low .700 OPS is much in part to a .200 Babip that’s already begun to regress. A solid play all around today.

Justin Morneau FanDuel 3400 DraftKings 4800 DraftStreet 7993
He’s getting a little expensive in some places, but Morneau is in such a great position today to do some damage. He’s been crushing righty pitching this year (especially at home) and has an OPS over .900 against that hand. Kevin Correia is a soft-tossing dude with limited K potential and unlimited get-blown-up potential. Rockies should put up some runs today with Morneau’s .393 wOBA leading the charge.

Chris Davis FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 5000 DraftStreet 5102
Striking out like his life depends on it. But I'm buying on the power upside and matchup against Shane Greene, a low K guy. This is strictly value with the understanding that he could post donuts across the board.

 

Second Base

Brian Dozier FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 4600 DraftStreet 8939
If he’s playing in Coors against a lefty, well I don’t know what else you want me to say there. The ballpark is obviously the Rocky Mountain goodness we’ve come to expect when it comes to the long ball and Dozier is much better against this side of the split. He’s got a mid .800’s OPS, has power, steals bases and is just generally an awesome fantasy player. The matchup against Matzek is choice and he’s a top play for sure especially on FanDuel and DraftKings.

FanDuel 3500 DraftKings 4500 DraftStreet 0
Getting deja vu all over again here? These picks looking similar to last night? Sure seems like it. But Kipnis, like Dozier, offers a unique power/speed combo that we salivate over in one-off situations like DFS because basement is raised considerably. Scott Carroll, over his career, has stunk and I’m going after a bunch of Indians today. Kipnis has been unlucky this season and his price is still way too low across the industry.

Consider Robinson Cano and Howie Kendrick in the late slate

 

Shortstop

Troy Tulowitzki FanDuel 4700 DraftKings 5800 DraftStreet 10402
I kind of hate going chalk with a lot of picks but how can I not recommend Tulo here? He’s better against lefties for sure. But that’s splitting hairs. He rakes righties as well with a .974 OPS and .421 wOBA. He’s playing in the friendly confines of Coors Field against Kevin Correia who’s a huge underdog to strike Tulo out. The price on DraftStreet is very steep but I think for his skill set the DraftKings and FanDuel prices are more than reasonable.

Asdrubal Cabrera FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 4000
As long as the ChiSox are throwing out crappy pitchers I’m going to keep recommending Tribe bats. It’s a simple equation and one I’m happy to continue exploiting. Cabrera isn’t a masher by any means, but hitting near the top of the lineup has its merits and he’s slightly better against righties. Scott Carroll is garbage-y and you can snag Asdrubal on the cheap.

Consider Elvis Andrus for the late slate

 

Third Base

Pedro Alvarez FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 5171
There’s a decent amount to like about Pedro today. He’s hitting in Great American Ballpark, a bandbox where he went yard last night. He’s facing Mike Leake who, while a decent pitcher, is prone to the home run and doesn’t have an especially high K%. This is a nice meeting place for Alvarez whose biggest issue is the strikeout and whose greatest asset is the power.

Trevor Plouffe FanDuel 2600 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 7183
Again, we are honing in on Coors Field today with Matzek on the mound and Plouffe fits that scenario. He’s better against lefties though this season has been a bit of a struggle. One area that could begin regressing is his Hr/FB% which is a bit low to date. No better place for that to jump than the paper thin air of Denver.

Lonnie Chisenhall FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 3600
How many Indians can I name? How about all of them? And yes I know Scott Carroll was good against the Red Sox last time around. But his season (and career) numbers are a joke. He doesn’t strike anyone out, walks almost as many as he K’s and has an xFIP in the high 4’s. Chisenhall works perfectly in that Indian stack you’ve always been dreaming about.

Consider Matt Carpenter

 

Outfield

Carlos Gonzalez FanDuel 3700 DraftKings 4700 DraftStreet 7150
Charlie Blackmon FanDuel 3400 DraftKings 4700 DraftStreet 8888
Corey Dickerson FanDuel 3900 DraftKings 4700 DraftStreet 8451 (if he plays)
Ooh baby I wish I could play the whole state of Colorado today against Kevin Correia, a guy with the 18th highest FB% in baseball among qualified pitchers. That’s bad news for him in Coors, great news for anyone stacking Rockies. These three guys (assuming Dickerson is back) are all interesting buys with CarGo representing possibly insane value at his prices. The other two guys are a little steep and you won’t be able to play all of them. But Gonzalez, finally back from his requisite trip to the DL offers the kind of upside and pricing we dream about in these scenarios.

Jason Heyward FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 6087
Couple of things to like here with Heyward. I still think he’s underpriced considering his skill set and his Hr/FB% is about half of his career averages. I think a power surge is on its way. Edwin Jackson can generate strikeouts, which is a bit of an issue, but he also is a flyball pitcher. Additionally, Jackson is below average holding runners on first and rates out poorly in keeping guys from stealing bases. This is a nice little bonus for Heyward who’s been running more than usual this season.

Adam Eaton FanDuel 2700 DraftKings 3600
Alejandro De Aza FanDuel 2700 DraftKings 3500
Our system is high on both of these guys against Zach McAllister today as potential value plays on a day in which plenty of high-priced arms and bats are tough to get into lineups. Neither guy will blow you away with anything in particular about their games. But they offer just enough of a trickle of numbers across the box score that it comes out as decent in the aggregrate.

For the late slate I’d take a look at…
Jay Bruce FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4500 DraftStreet 6304
Against Charlie Morton, more of a groundball pitcher but is playing in a hitter’s ballpark and Bruce’s biggest issue is the K, something which Morton is below average in generating.

Carlos Quentin FanDuel 2300 DraftKings 3500 DraftStreet 5056
Chris Denorfia FanDuel 2200 DraftKings 3500 DraftStreet 4206
Both of these guys are enticing against Paul Maholm as both rate out better on the lefty side of the split, and Quentin in particular is getting Babip’d to death with a .140 number that is so freaking low that when it starts regressing will make him amazing value.

 

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