Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, DraftDay and StarStreet 8/5/14

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Pitchers

Felix Hernandez - FD 11100 DK 12700 DD 21300 SS 32400
With some big name guys going today (I bow before you Clayton, believe me I do) I think Felix stands out as the best big name guy for the buck. He’s got a great matchup against the Braves who rank 27th in the league in team wOBA against righties. They also strike out 22% of the time. Felix has been, in a word, dominant. His xFIP isonly slightly above his 2.01 ERA and he’s adjusted from his reduced fastball velocity by just making his secondary pitches work while maintaining pinpoint control. He never walks batters, allowing him to go late in games. In terms of the big salary guys, he is a clear play over Kershaw and Price today.

Gio Gonzalez - FD 9000 DK 9900 DD 15700 SS 27200
This one’s just as much about Gio’s skill set as it is about the opponent. The Mets are dreadful against lefty pitching, ranking 27th in the league with a .671 team OPS against southpaws thanks in part to an ungodly 24.7% K rate. That second numbers really speaks to Gio’s K upside today. He should have plenty of opportunities for the strikeout if he can keep the walks in check (never a slam dunk). But he’s been solid of late and if you aren’t breaking the bank on pitching then he’s the dude.

Phil Hughes - FD 6800 DK 7600 DD 12600 SS 20900
Coming on the crazy cheap today. I know it’s been an up and down season for the guy. And the Padres have been hitting like (kind of) crazy of late. But there’s a great deal to like about Phil today. He’s pitching at home, a ballpark he’s favored as a flyball guy finally getting out of Yankee Stadium. Even with the Babip regression happening for the Pads, let’s face it, they still stink. Hughes has a stupid low 0.85 BB/9 rate and his peripherals are balla. The xFIP is about three quarters a run lower than his ERA. And the prices! He’s the guy to make the King Felix’s work on two pitcher sites.

Alex Wood - FD 7700 DK 7000 DD 14800 SS 21600
Zack Wheeler - FD 7500 DK 8200 DD 14400 SS 23400
I’m putting them both together here because they are a bit odd to recommend considering they’re facing the two top dudes I just mentioned. On two pitcher sites I’d (almost) never have my two guys facing each other in a GPP because the upside gets crushed by negating a win from one side. But both these guys have solid matchups in the Mariners and Nats respectively (Wood’s matchup against the M’s is slightly better but the win expectation is lower). Both guys have xFIPs in the mid to lower threes and have nice K rates. They are upside GPP plays, but our system likes both from a points per dollar standpoint.

 

Catchers

Wilin Rosario - FD 2800 DK 4000 DD 7450 SS 6300
Doesn’t get much easier than this and on sites like FanDuel he should be nearly 100% start unless there is a chance of heavy rain in Colorado (or you are new to DFS). Otherwise, it’s all systems go. Rosario faces a lefty Travis Wood, who basically stinks with a mid 4’s xFIP, low K rate and walks a ton of dudes. Rosario meanwhile kind of crushes lefties and this season is more of the same with a .922 OPS on that side of the split. His prices make this one easy and I’m hesitant to even throw too many other names out there.

Derek Norris - FD 3100 DK 3700 DD 7550 SS 5900
But I will. Norris is still destroying lefties on the season with a crazy 1.050 OPS on that side of the split. His price has finally come back down to Earth after being out of bounds for quite a while. That’s great as he’s back firmly in the buy zone against Drew Smyly. Actually makes the decision on Rosario just a tad closer, though getting hit for late in games on the platoon does hurt him a bit.

Welington Castillo - FD 2500 DK 3700 DD 6000 SS 3900
Castillo is one of those guys who’s fared better against lefties over the course of his career even if this season’s been a bit of a mess. He’s only an upside play facing Brett Anderson in Coors Field. I wouldn’t touch him if it weren’t for the park. Even with the positive splits (this season withstanding).

 

First Basemen

Adam Dunn - FD 3100 DK 4200 DD 9050 SS 6200
Jose Abreu - FD 4800 DK 5500 DD 13450 SS 10300
I’m going cheap for sure at first base today. I don’t see enormous upside in the top salary guys and Dunn is a dude who offers some safety considering out of the three true outcomes he presents, two of them garner some fine enough points in game of all types. And Jose Abreu is just about as good a hitter as there’s been thisseason. They come at different price points for some flexibility. Colby Lewis isn’t as bad as the high 5’s ERA suggests, but he’s not good either. Some K potential is there for, but so are the walks and home runs against a guy like Lewis.

Not much else to like for the money today but you can consider Gaby Sanchez and Mark Reynolds

 

Second Basemen

This position is a barren wasteland of broken dreams and bad splits. It’s a nightmare and I’m advocating going cheap and crossing fingers.

I’m going to list a few guys our system likes for the money and give you the pluses and minuses of each.

Alberto Callaspo - FD 2200 DK 3500 DD 5600 SS 3400
Plus: He’s cheap and a little better against lefties.
Minus: He’s not a 2B everywhere and he sucks.

DJ LeMahieu - FD 2200 DK 3500 DD 6700 SS 4300
Plus: He’s cheap and playing in Coors.
Minus: He sucks.

Rougned Odor - FD 2200 DK 3000 DD 5000 SS 3700
Plus: Playing against Danks in a hitter’s park.
Minus: Bad splits and he sucks.

Now that’s some hardcore analysis.

 

Shortstops

Jose Reyes - FD 3800 DK 4600 DD 9100 SS 8100
Nice matchup against Bud Norris whose low K rate, high walk rate and mid 4’s xFIP all point to a dude who sucks. Reyes is actually coming a bit cheaper than normal today and the matchup dictates a play. We want him making contact and getting on base. Norris offers chances at both of those scenarios (not mutually exclusive) and Reyes is much better facing righty pitching.

Elvis Andrus - FD 2600 DK 4300 DD 8700 SS 6200
I love picking on John Danks. Love it. Why? Because the guy doesn’t make it a point to pitch particularly well when on the mound. That’s why. Andrus’s upside comes from getting on base, stealing said bases and letting the bros behind him take care of the rest (no guarantee). Today though? Expectations are a bit higher as you’ll see with Beltre and Rios coming down the pike.

Starlin Castro - FD 3200 DK 4500 DD 8200 SS 6200
On here because he’s slightly better against lefties, makes contact at a solid rate and is playing in Coors against Brett Anderson. Doesn’t require too much explanation beyond that though I will say that his prices are a little high even with all of those factors in place.

Consider Hanley Ramirez against the lefty Santiago

 

Third Basemen

Tough choices here today.

Adrian Beltre - FD 3700 DK 4600 DD 10000 SS 8200
Going to cost you in some spots for sure, but man does he have some upside against Danks. Beltre is one of the true lefty platoon masters and this season is no exception with an OPS right around .900 on that side of the split. The ballpark helps here as well considering U.S. Cellular Field is one of the best places for boosting righty power. Going to be tough fitting in a bomb squad of hitter today, but Beltre is a guy you should consider.

Conor Gillaspie - FD 3000 DK 4100 DD 7550 SS 6100
Colby Lewis isn’t as bad as you’d think. But he’s still bad and some lefty Chi-Sox could be in for nice days considering Lewis’s struggles with that side of the split. Gillaspie has raked righty pitching this season and his career numbers point to a guy favoring that platoon. He’s Babip-ing like a pro in that split, but also kind of getting killed by the Hr/Fb ration so it probably evens out. Right?

Strongly, strongly (that’s two!) consider Nolan Arenado against the lefty Travis Wood in Coors Field. I want to have shares of all these guys today.

 

Outfield

Three guys are standing out to me here in a big way. There’s some other value on the margins or coming cheap, but I’m trying to keep it in an around these three dudes. On FanDuel, playing all three is completely within reason in cash games even when trying to fit a stud like King Felix up top.

Alex Rios - FD 2800 DK 4200 DD 8600 SS 6100
Keeps coming cheap against lefties and I’ll take that all day long. He’s crushing them this season and over the better part of his career. This season keeps the good times rolling with an OPS over 1K against lefties and a 174 wRC+. His prices are just too sweet and he’s fairly easy to fit in if you’re spending on pitching. Rios against Danks in U.S. Cellular is a match made in DFS heaven. (Which is actually located in Coors)

Nelson Cruz - FD 3400 DK 4400 DD 9600 SS 7800
Speaking of guys who do dirty and disgusting things to lefty pitching, I’d like to introduce you to my friend Nelson. He’s another guy with hefty platoon splits and faces Mark Buehrle who’s on the regression train to Sucksville. Mark B isn’t good despite what the run hot ERA suggests. And Cruz mashes lefties with the Rogers Centre providing a nice power backdrop.

Mark Trumbo - FD 2700 DK 4000 DD 7600 SS 5700
Falling off the radar a little, and is hurt with Goldschmidt out of the lineup, Trumbo is a guy who’s historically killed lefties. He’s had a rough go of it this year returning to injury but some of his issues are luck related. He’s limping with a .190 Babip against lefties, but still close to an .800 OPS even with the ball not dropping in. Danny Duffy’s a low K, high walk guy whose xFIP is a full two runs worse than his ERA.

Alejandro De Aza - FD 2600 DK 3700 DD 7250 SS 5300
Adam Eaton - FD 3600 DK 5000 DD 9200 SS 8500
For the second day in a row. This time it’s Colby Lewis who’s no Nick Martinez. But he’ll do.

Consider Jonny Gomes and Scott Van Slyke
Give a follow on Twitter @dailyfantasysr and @dougnorrie.

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