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Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

08/23/2014
Doug Norrie

Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, DraftDay and Draftster 8/23/14 - Late Games

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Pitchers

Zack Greinke - FD 9700 DK 10800 DD 19450 DFSTR 8700
Seems a pretty simple play really. Greinke's having a great year, looking very much like the pitcher he was a few season's ago during his Cy Young run. He's striking out close to ten batters per nine and his 2.65 xFIP is right in line with his minuscule ERA. He's a heavy favorite against the Mets today who rank 27th in the league against righty pitching. They strike out more than 20% of the time against righties and are just generally bad. Greinke will be a popular cash game play across the industry and it's tough to find many reasons to fade him.

Danny Salazar - FD 7000 DK 7200 DD 13700 DFSTR 6400
If you enjoy playing with fire, then consider your pyromaniac ways with this guy. What's to like? Salazar has big time strike out stuff and can rack them up real quick. He K's more than 9.5 batters per nine and can look awesome for short stretches. The operative word there is "short". He'll be facing a squad in the Astros that strike out the second most in the league against righties at an insane 23.1% clip. The problem with Salazar is consistency. He will look awesome and then "that inning" happens and the wheels come completely off. You saw what Carrasco did to the Astros yesterday so the upside is there for Salazar, but it's so risky.

 

Catchers

Miguel Montero - FD 2400 DK 3400 DD 8200 DFSTR 3000
Went yard last night (one of our picks, so phew) and is in another solid spot today against Cashner. Cashner is better than Despaigne by a wide margin, but he isn't an elite pitcher. I tend to think he's a bit overrated. Chase Field favors lefty power and Montero can really only be considered when facing righties. But his numbers in that split are strong and the DBacks running a little light in hitting, he's stuck in the middle of the order. Liking his prices all around.

Derek Norris - FD 2700 DK 3400 DD 6800 DFSTR 3000
C.J. Wilson seems a little broken and Norris has spent the better part of this season embarrassing lefty pitching. He's among the league leaders in that platoon split and the best catchers against lefties this season. His .959 OPS is good no matter what your position and the .416 wOBA gets me giddy.

 

First Basemen

Garrett Jones - FD 2500 DK 4400 DD 7350 DFSTR 6700
I really wouldn't even be thinking about him if it weren't for Coors Field and honestly even then he isn't necessarily the run away value play at the position today. There are some other cheap options out there. But Jones gets the nod facing the righty Lyles. Lyles induces a bunch of ground balls which is really the only way to live in Coors. But he's still not a dominating pitcher. Jones is coming at punt-y prices in a nice situation here.

Billy Butler - FD 2500 DK 4200 DD 7650 DFSTR 7400
Something's got to give in this matchup. Butler's horrible against righties. Tepesch is basically bad against everyone (lucky lately with a few "decent" starts). I'm buying the Butler side here. Prices are cheap and the Royals should put up a few on Nicky T.

Consider Freddie Freeman against Leake in Great American Ballpark if you want to spend a little at first.

 

Second Basemen

Chase Utley - FD 3500 DK 4200 DD 9300 DFSTR 5800
Shelby Miller's been a little bit of brutal this season. What started out bad hasn't gotten any better. He's walking tons and tons of guys and the strikeouts are down considerably. Seems lost. That's great news for Utley as he's as tough out for righties as it is and has an .824 OPS against them this season. His contact rate plays well to Miller's weakness which is throwing strikes. And the strikes he does throw get his hard.

Consider guys like Charlie Culberson and D.J. Lemahieu as tom Koehler is a reverse splits pitcher who's worse against righties.

 

Shortstops

Jimmy Rollins - FD 3000 DK 3900 DD 8450 DFSTR 5200
Much of what I wrote for Utley holds true here as well. Rollins actually has a decent walk rate against righties (over 10%) and he's struggled with Babip this season, depressing some of his raw numbers. At a position that's always tough to fill, I like him against a bad pitcher in a good hitter's park. He isn't the best hitter in the world, but anytime I can find shortstops with wRC+'s just a sniff above average I'll take it in a good matchup.

Elvis Andrus - FD 2500 DK 3700 DD 7450 DFSTR 3000
Mostly the story here is that Jeremy Guthrie is a bad pitcher that doesn't do anything particularly well (except hammer checks for his major league service). Tough to make a case for Andrus here except that he's hitting at the top of the order against a mediocre arm and coming at super cheap prices. Speed is the key here.

Third Basemen

Josh Donaldson - FD 3700 DK 4400 DD 9900 DFSTR 3000
He's below replacement level against righties this season. But lefties? Ooh baby, he's about as good as it gets. In line with his historical averages, Donaldson is tuning up southpaws with a 1.115 OPS and .469 wOBA on the year. It's a little Babip heavy, but not overwhelmingly so and he's quickly proven to be one of the best hitters in the game on this side of the split. C.J. is a little above average, but not in a way that would have me off Donaldson here.

I'm not straying too far from Donaldson here but some other guys you can consider are Adrian Beltre coming cheaper against Guthrie and Pedro Alvarez as a punt in the off chance he starts against Peralta.

 

Outfielders

Shin-Soo Choo - FD 2700 DK 3800 DD 8850 DFSTR 3200
Leonys Martin - FD 2500 DK 3500 DD 7000 DFSTR 5800
I've been taken to task for my Choo love this season. He's struggled through injury, but has actually hit a little of late. Martin on the other hand has been about the same as Choo but without the expectations. Both of them meet in a nice place today against Guthrie. The latter isn't a favorite to put either guy down on strikes with any regularity and both can add value in the run-scoring department. These picks are cased primarily on matchup because Guthrie is stinky*. And both allow you to fit some higher priced bats to go along with Greinke.
*industry term

Giancarlo Stanton - FD 5100 DK 5700 DD 12650 DFSTR 8200
Feel like I'm contractually obligated to put him in here because of the park. He doesn't rate out particularly high from a dollar perspective in our system. Though he's have a great year against righty pitching historically he's much better against lefties. Still coming in tops in raw points on the slate so if you've saved everywhere else, plug him in. He's a beast of course. The price just feels steep considering the splits.

Alex Gordon - FD 3500 DK 5000 DD 9250 DFSTR 10800
Shit the bed against Colby Lewis last night, but I'm a glutton for punishment. I'll have him back in there today against Tepesch. Very steep on DraftKings so I don't think I'm going there, but on FanDuel I like his price for cash games.

Strongly consider Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna
Give a follow on Twitter @dailyfantasysr and @dougnorrie.

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1 Visitor Comment

  1. Does the elbow concerns decrease Grienke’s value today?

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