Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, DraftDay and Draftster 9/13/14

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Pitchers

Early
Julio Teheran - FD 8300 DK 8500 DD 18900 DFSTR 5500
Just a terrible slate of pitching in the early slate. You will be able to spend on bats for sure considering the universally low salaries across the pitching category. Teheran is the most expensive but is also in a solid spot against the Rangers who rank in the bottom third of the league in team wOBA against righties. They don't strike out as much as I'd like but really can't hit either so there is some evening out. Teheran's had a rougher go of it lately and has been having a tough time striking batters out. Though I'm loathe to just recommend the higest salary guy, and I do recognize some of his shortcomings, I'm still fine with playing him as the win expectation should be there against a weaker squad.

Consider Jeremy Hellickson but I probably won't go there

Late
Tyson Ross - FD 8900 DK 9800 DD 18250 DFSTR 7900
Ross isn't a great pitcher, but he's been damn good this season. I wish he was pitching at home of course, but there are a lot of things I want that I can't have (yet). His 3.11 xFIP and close to nine K/9 play well against a Diamondback team that ranks 24th in the league against righty pitching. If Ross can limit the walks even a little bit he's in line for a big night.

Jered Weaver - FD 7600 DK 7600 DD 15000 DFSTR 6400
Personally I think he's fading big time as a pitcher, but sometimes matchup and price make for a play in spit of what's happening in comparison to his historic performance. Weaver gets the Astros who strike out more than 23% of the time against righties and rank in the lower half of the league in team wOBA on that side of the split. He should be in line for a win against Feldman and I think he hits value.

Consider Jeff Locke on the K upside against the Cubs

 

Catchers

Early
Brian McCann - FD 3100 DK 3800 DD 8200 DFSTR 10000
He isn't a tremendous value but the early slate is a short one and I think taking a guy on the right side of his split, against an average pitcher (slightly better) in a hitter's park isn't the worst way to go. A better value on DraftKings but in play everywhere. He's hitting in the middle of the lineup and has run bad in general this whole season.

Late
Yadier Molina - FD 2500 DK 3500 DD 7700 DFSTR 3000
He's always been better against lefties and this is a good spot running into one of the Rockies' stable of crappy lefties. Molina's sporting a .834 OPS and 133 wRC+ against southpaws this season. He gets Jorge de la Rosa who get slugged around by righty bats and I'll be playing some Cardinals for sure on this slate.

Salvador Perez - FD 2500 DK 3500 DD 6500 DFSTR 3000
Rubby de la Rosa's been knocked around a ton this season and I think some of the Royals are in play against him today. Perez is better against lefties but the splits aren't stark and he's facing a subpar pitcher at super low prices.

Strongly consider Carlos Ruiz

 

First Basemen

Early
Freddie Freeman - FD 3400 DK 4700 DD 10450 DFSTR 7000
I'll him all over my early game lineups against Lisalverto Bonilla. Yup, I don't know who he is either. Bonilla's got only a few major league innings and his minor league track record is hit or miss. Freeman's crushed lefties this season with an OPS close to .900 and a .391 wOBA on the season.

Consider Mark Teixeira

Late
Jose Abreu - FD 3500 DK 4900 DD 11050 DFSTR 3000
Logan Darnell could be in trouble today against some of these White Sox bats. Now Darnell's actually been a little unlucky this season so some of his numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt. His peripherals and xFIP are fine. But Abreu, even with his unsustainable Hr/FB% still has it in on lefties for the season. We are only given the sample sizes we have and I think we can buy on the matchup alone.

Joe Mauer - FD 2900 DK 4000 DD 8500 DFSTR 5000
Scott Carroll is one of the worst everyday pitchers in all of baseball with a strike out well below five batters per inning. Mauer's high walk rate against righties and his .344 wOBA make him a solid cash game play considering he doesn't have the high power upside.

Consider David Ortiz

 

Second Basemen

Early
Ben Zobrist - FD 2800 DK 4300 DD 8300 DFSTR 4400
It's been a struggle against righties this season though now he's coming awfully cheap and facing RA Dickey who's allowed a .326 wOBA to lefties this season. The big story here on Zobrist are the prices as he's coming fairly cheap. I know the Rays' offense in general doesn't offer a ton of upside, but hitting at the top of the order has its perks.

Late
Ian Kinsler - FD 3100 DK 4300 DD 8550 DFSTR 3900
Danny Salazar actually has reverse splits for his career allowing a .789 OPS against righties. That's news for some of these Tigers' hitters (as they run righty all the way down the lineup) and Kinsler is about league average on that side of the platoon. He's coming pretty cheap across the board all things considered and the pickins' are slim on the late slate for second base.

Javier Baez - FD 2900 DK 3400 DD 7500 DFSTR 3300
His strikeout rate is just insane, but Jeff Locke isn't a huge K guy (even with some reverse splits) and I think Baez can do some damage today. I wouldn't play him in cash games but the upside is there even with the bad ballpark.

 

Shortstops

Early
Jose Reyes - FD 3300 DK 4700 DD 9350 DFSTR 3600
Our system's got no love for Jeremy Hellickson and some of his last games have been great to stack against because he's gotten lit up. Today could be a similar story against the Blue Jays today in the Rogers Centre.

Late
Jhonny Peralta - FD 2900 DK 4300 DD 8600 DFSTR 6400
He's tuned up lefties this season with an .866 OPS in that platoon. His batted ball profile suggests its not completely luck for his success and though he isn't necessarily an offensive dynamo, getting to face Jorge de la Rosa has its benefits. Namely: you get to hit.

Alexei Ramirez - FD 2700 DK 3700 DD 7900 DFSTR 3000
Assuming Darnell gets the start here, Ramirez gets the nod considering he's on the right side of the split with a slightly better than average 108 wRC+ and .331 wOBA on the season. The Babip's a little low which points to some run bad, but overall he makes a good play against a below average lefty in a hitter's park.

 

Third Basemen

Early
Chase Headley - FD 2900 DK 3600 DD 8100 DFSTR 6400
Assuming he's over the concussion scare, I think he's a fine play on the short early slate considering the price and the positional scarcity. He's a better hitter against lefties leaving him on the wrong side of his split against the right Gonzalez. But this is a tough position and I think going cheap with a third baseman hitting around the middle of the lineup offers you as much advantage as anyone.

Consider Evan Longoria

Late
Todd Frazier - FD 2800 DK 4300 DD 9200 DFSTR 5700
He's actually hit righties pretty damn well this season with an OPS over .800 and a 124 wRC+. The nice thing here is how much Gallardo has struggled to strike batters out over the short term. Living on that kind of edge gets tough over the long term and with third base getting thin I think the prices here are fine enough.

Consider Aramis Ramirez

 

Outfielders

Early
Nick Markakis - FD 2600 DK 3700 DD 7150 DFSTR 3000
Alejandro De Aza - FD 2900 DK 3600 DD 8150 DFSTR 8600
Part of Shane Greene's success this season has been how well he's run against lefties. On that side of the split his xFIP is actually in the mid 4's and his ERA has remained lower because of an unsustainable strand rate on that side of the split. If Markakis and de Aza are hitting 1-2 in this early slate then I'm all over them for all formats. It's a bit tough rounding out the value in the OF here and I like how they can compound each other's success against a pitcher who's run a little hot.

Matt Joyce - FD 2600 DK 3200 DD 6600 DFSTR 3000
Against a pitcher like Dickey I'm loving Joyce's 13.5% walk rate against righties and 124 wRC+. He's a great candidate to pay off on the cheap and the ballpark helps boost some moderate power expectation.

Consider David Dejesus if he plays

 

Late
Matt Holliday - FD 3300 DK 4300 DD 9250 DFSTR 3500
Went yard last night and is in a similar situation tonight. He's facing a subpar lefty in Jorge de la Rosa who's been lit up by righty bats this season to the tune of a .788 OPS. Holliday has a .908 OPS against lefties this season with a .400 wOBA. That, combined with his historical averages, is more than enough to buy him on value today.

Andrew McCutchen - FD 4200 DK 5500 DD 11650 DFSTR 6800
Even running bad he's raked lefties for better than a .900 OPS and close to a .400 wOBA. I'm buying him almost all day against lefties and Felix Doubront is just one of those guys. This is a great cash game spot for a guy so good on one side of the platoon split.

Marlon Byrd - FD 3100 DK 3600 DD 7350 DFSTR 3000
Though the strikeout rate is a little out of the box on the season (27%) I think you can still buy him today against Brad Hand. Hand has allowed close to an .800 OPS against righties this season and the ballpark gives Byrd another little power boost.

Dayan Viciedo - FD 2500 DK 3800 DD 8500 DFSTR 7400
He's run a little bad against southpaws this season, but the historical averages are still there with a 124 wRC+ and .360 wOBA. I'm willing to buy him in a hitter's park against a subpar lefty in Darnell.

Consider Yasiel Puig

 

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