Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, DraftDay and Draftster 9/17/14

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Pitchers

Cole Hamels - FD 9600 DK 11000 DD 19950 DFSTR 7200
Sale and Price are so damn expensive today that I think you can almost safely avoid them from a points/$ perspective. I'd prefer Sale slightly because the matchup against the Twins is much better than Price against the Royals, but even with that I don't think they're favorites to hit value on those prices. Hamels though, while a step below in talent, is coming on FanDuel about $1,600 less ($1,800 less on DK) and matching up against the woeful Padres in Petco. Seems like a no-brainer really considering Hamels' peripherals have been solid this season and he's posted a 3.27 xFIP. Again, from a talent level he isn't on par with the other big guns, but the price and matchup dictate a play here.

Francisco Liriano - FD 8700 DK 9900 DD 15750 DFSTR 8100
Very few other pitchers have the short term strike outside of Liriano. When he gets it rolling down hill this dude puts up some crazy inning-to-inning K numbers. That being said, he's always risky as his command can sometimes submarine him. Or can knock him out of games early because the pitch count gets elevated. The Red Sox are a middle of the pack team that strikes out 22% of the time against lefties. Liriano smells like a GPP play, but on the right night he can put up some big points for a little less than the studs.

Dillon Gee - FD 7000 DK 7600 DD 11850 DFSTR 5700
Coming very cheap against a Miami team that's sans Giancarlo Stanton. Stanton is so good in comparison to the rest of the Marlin team that his absence really pushes pitchers up the value tier. Gee has a solid multiplier at these prices and our system hasn't even totally accounted for Stanton sitting. The Marlins K a ton against righty pitching and Gee, going in a pitcher's park, is a value considering the matchup. Makes a solid pairing in two SP sites.

Carlos Carrasco - FD 7500 DK 8900 DD 13050 DFSTR 11100
The Astros go down on strikes like they have contract clauses that give bonuses for whiffing. Carrasco has put up fabulous numbers with a K rate close to nine while walking less than two batters per nine. He has an xFIP under three and has been a super pleasant surprise this season for the Indians.

Consider Clay Buchholz

Catchers

Derek Norris - FD 2200 DK 3400 DD 6850 DFSTR 3000
Derek Holland's been real good since returning from the DL, but catcher is a tough position to fill today and with so many good pitchers going you are bound to run into one of them somewhere. Consider Norris's prices and his splits against lefties this season, I think you can take a flyer here. Again, the matchups for catchers leave a lot to be desired, so even with Norris's recent struggles, his .864 OPS platoon plays here at punt prices.

Mike Zunino - FD 2200 DK 2800 DD 6200 DFSTR 3000
C.J. Wilson is an up and down pitcher and Zunino is significantly better against lefties. Wilson has a high walk rate and an xFIP in the 4's. Zunino's K rate is a bit more than you'd out of a cash game play, but the power upside is for sure there and he cuts down on his K expectation just a little considering Wilson's control issues.

Consider Evan Gattis if he's back from the strep throat

First Basemen

Adam Lind - FD 3100 DK 4200 DD 9150 DFSTR 10900
Going to want to be on some Blue Jays bats today against Bud Norris. For his career Norris is worse against lefty bats and this season has allowed a .727 wOBA on that side of the split. Lind has been one of the best bats in the majors against righty pitching with a .982 OPS and .426 wOBA. His prices are more than reasonable and Camden Yards is above average for lefty power.

Steve Pearce - FD 3600 DK 4400 DD 8850 DFSTR 9100
He's hit lefties well all season with a 1.052 OPS and 192 wRC+. A big reason for these numbers is that his walk rate is actually higher than his strikeout rate. The other numbers frankly look pretty sustainable and it doesn't seem like Pearce has just luckboxed his way into a fantastic season on this side of the split. The price is completely reasonable against Happ today and he makes one of the better first base options.

Jose Abreu - FD 3900 DK 4900 DD 12100 DFSTR 10000
Though it isn't extreme, Yordano Ventura has been slightly worse against righty bats this season. Today is awfully tough to find solid hitter value and I think you are going to end up overpaying in some spots simply because pitching is coming a little cheaper. Abreu makes for one of those guys you might go an extra dollar or too because the other options a little cheaper don't offer anywhere close to the upside.

 

Second Basemen

Javier Baez - FD 3100 DK 4200 DD 8300 DFSTR 7000
Daniel Corcino is just kind of a dude who happens to be pitching in the majors more on circumstance than any kind of crazy big league upside. He doesn't have a high K rate throughout his minor league run which is great news for Baez whose strikeout numbers are a bit untenable. But the power is real and anytime I can buy him cheaper facing a mediocre arm I'm willing to run it because his price is depressed from when he's overpowered in other matchups.

Ian Kinsler - FD 3700 DK 4500 DD 8850 DFSTR 5000
Another situation in which I think you are overpaying some, but the cost is okay considering what kind of matchup you are getting him in. Kyle Gibson has no strikeout upside at all and Kinsler's been about average against righty pitching this season. I think the Tigers as a whole get to Gibson today allowing for an extra PA or two for Kinsler out of the leadoff spot.

 

Shortstops

Jose Reyes - FD 3200 DK 4700 DD 9050 DFSTR 6500
Reyes is by and large the best big money value at shortstop today. His price on DK is a little steep, but on FanDuel I'd say he's close to a must start at $3200. He gets to face Bud Norris in Camden Yards and hitting from the leadoff spot in a game that should feature some runs is more than enough to buy heavily on the guy where the price is right. Reyes has a solid contact rate against righty pitching and though his wRC+ is only slightly above 100, the talent and matchup have me ready to buy him in earnest.

Alexei Ramirez - FD 2600 DK 3700 DD 8100 DFSTR 5800
Man shortstop is so brutal today that I'm recommending a guy on the wrong side of his splits because the price is low enough that I think you can take the hit on expectation just to have basically a warm body in your lineup. Alexei is about league average against righty pitching and doesn't strike out a ton. Not a ton to get excited about here except the price.

 

Third Basemen

Josh Donaldson - FD 3700 DK 4400 DD 9800 DFSTR 5800
Like I said with Norris, Derek Holland has been solid since returning from the DL, but here's another one of those situations in which the batter splits can overwhelm even a suboptimal matchup. Donaldson has tuned up lefties this season with a 1.064 OPS and .450 wOBA. For his career Holland has allowed a mid .700's wOBA to righty bats and Donaldson is worth it as a slight overpay here simply because there are few bats who've had more success against a particular hand.

Conor Gillaspie - FD 2200 DK 3500 DD 7100 DFSTR 3900
Digging a little deeper here, but Gillaspie makes an interesting punt option against Ventura. I know I've picked three White Sox already. It isn't that I think they are overwhelming values, but when we are picking along the margins they do seem to be a team that could provide value on the day. Gillaspie has a .842 OPS against righty pitching this season and has actually run super bad in his Hr/FB%.

Consider Todd Frazier

Outfielders

Nelson Cruz - FD 3800 DK 4900 DD 11250 DFSTR 3400
Adam Jones - FD 4000 DK 4500 DD 9500 DFSTR 6800
Facing J.A. Happ in a hitter's park seems like just the right time to go the extra dollar two on these guys. They are both pushing it on the salary side, but I think they're worth it against Happ who has a career 4.53 xFIP against righty bats. Camden Yards is one of the best parks in baseball for righty power and both these dudes have crushed lefty pitching this season. Jones has an OPS over 1.000 and Cruz isn't too far behind. If I am going to spend up in the outfield I want to have exposure to at least one of these guys today.

Billy Hamilton - FD 2800 DK 4200 DD 7850 DFSTR 3000
Jay Bruce - FD 2800 DK 3600 DD 7650 DFSTR 3000
Don't be fooled by Kyle Hendricks' 2.38 ERA. His xFIP is actually around .400 and he's benefited from some run hot in his Babip. Hendricks has a 4.36 xFIP against lefty bats and is probably due for some regression coming over the last couple weeks of the season. Bruce and Billy always seem to come in pairs and are sitting at cheaper salaries because of their inconsistency. Feel a little more like tourney plays because they (and the Reds) just can't always seem to put it together. But they each can turn out big point games on the right night and in the right matchup. Update: Both Hamilton and Bruce are out of the lineup tonight. Man the Reds are awful.

Marlon Byrd - FD 3000 DK 3600 DD 7300 DFSTR 3300
I really wish the Phillies had a couple more quality righty bats because Eric Stults is so garbage-y, but Byrd will have to do. He hasn't crushed lefty pitching this season mostly because of his strikeout rate. But that's fine against Stults who strikes out less than six batters per nine and just generally sucks.

Consider Colby Rasmus
Give a follow on Twitter @dailyfantasysr and @dougnorrie.

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