Daily Fantasy Football Picks for Week 7 - DraftKings

DFSR is excited to bring you Bryce McVay. Dude knows his stuff and he'll be bringing you picks specifically for DraftKings with an emphasis on that site's scoring system and value. We are pumped to have a great new voice in the DFS landscape.

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I hope you read my Week 7 Thursday article “To Fade, or Not to Fade. That is the Question…or is it?” I discussed the ideas behind considering a player’s utilization rate and why this should very rarely play a part in our analysis. More importantly, I gave you a mock lineup for this week’s millionaire maker and promised that I would give you one more at the risk of my own embarrassment (or worse, chopping up 1mil because I couldn't keep these to myself).

 

I’ll be the first to tell you it’s very unlikely either of these lineups crack the top 100. My cash rate in the millionaire maker is 34%. I cashed on 7 of 15 lineups in week 4 and 10 of 35 in week 5. Considering the Millionaire Maker pays the top 15,000 of the 90,000+ entrants (~top 17%), I’ll gladly take a 34% success rate. The bad news is I still haven’t sniffed a four figure payout from this tournament. Unfortunately, an element of luck has to be on your side for you to see those kinds of gains. But hell, just like the lotto, you can’t win if you don’t play.

 

Week 7 Picks: Millionaire Maker Lineup Team B

Since I am such a considerate writer, here is the team I recommended on Thursday. Colin Kaepernick DK $6,500, Jamaal Charles DK $6,700, Arian Foster DK $8,300, Brandon Marshall DK $6,300, Justin Hunter DK $3,700, Golden Tate DK $5,900, Jermaine Gresham DK $3,500, Justin Forsett DK $5,600, Buffalo Bills $3,300.

I will not be including any of these picks in the lineup below, but normally I do overlap picks. If you have enough bankroll to make multiple lineups you should be using your top picks in multiple lineups while rearranging the boom/bust picks.

Quarterback

Derek Carr DK $5,800
Ok, I know what you’re thinking. This idiotic daily fantasy “expert” is telling me to put $27 of my hard earned money into a lineup led by...the QB of the winless of Oakland Raiders? Yes, yes I am. Remember my considerations, I aim for QB’s that will be playing from behind, so what better guarantees this then an 0-5 Raiders team playing a 4-1 Arizona Cardinals? The Cardinals are in the bottom five points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, Derek Carr played extremely well in last week’s start against the Chargers, Andre Holmes and James Jones are legitimate play makers, and the Raiders have very little to offer in the run game.

 

Running Backs

Le’Veon Bell DK $6,600
Over the past two weeks, the only difference between Bell and Demarco Murray, Matt Forte, Arian Foster, is the touchdowns. Bell hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 1 in fact. However, he is still average 20 DK points/game and over 4 receptions a game. I wouldn’t say I give players a bump simply because they are playing on Monday Night, but when I find a value pick and he happens to be playing on Monday, I get a bit giddy. Bell at home under the spotlight should find the end-zone at least once, add that to his average and were over 4.0 value. (i.e. 200+ point team)

Fred Jackson DK $5,500
“The oldest running back in the NFL”. ESPN affrims those words every time F-Jax makes a highlight. Here’s the thing, F-Jax don’t care! F-Jax get redzone carries! F-Jax average over 6 receptions/game over his last four! F-Jax always outperform first round bust C.J. Spiller!…In a game where I expect the Bills to be ahead, Jackson will once again be the focal point of the run game and see his 5-6 targets. I also think he has one of the highest probabilities at a multiple touchdown game.

 

Wide Receivers

Andre Holmes DK $4,800
This is a strategy play more than anything. After plugging in Carr as my QB, I look for his number one receiving option. One could make a case for James Jones, but in a GPP format I like the home run power of Holmes. Jones is also more expensive. Don’t think this pick is ONLY strategy based, Holmes exploded last week for 31 points and has 20 targets the last two weeks. $4,800 seems like a steal considering the facts.

Ashlon Jeffery DK $6,600
I put Brandon Marshall in my Team A, so I am putting Jeffery in my Team B. The Dolphins cornerbacks are short. The Bears wide receivers are tall. Two plus two is four. Jeffery has had a 100 yards or a touchdown each of the last four weeks. Either him or Marshall will have 100 yards AND a touchdown this week. Your guess is as good as mine.

Mike Wallace DK $5,900
I’m a Dolphins fan. So as a Dolphins fan I know never to play anyone from the Dolphins. This week will be my exception. Wallace has finally asserted himself as the clear-cut number one target for Ryan Tannehill. He’s had 5 receptions in 4 of 5 games, and a touchdown in 4 of 5 games. He gets a generous bears secondary in a game where I suspect the Dolphins will have to rely on their passing attack.

 

Tight End

Julius Thomas DK $6,900
“It’s TOOOO EASYY!!” That’s what Julius said when he ran an inside post route for his second touchdown against the Jets last week. I am also saying that as I make this selection. He is miles ahead of any other tight end in scoring and why do we think this will change? By far the best chance for a score so if you got the money, just spend it on him.

 

Flex

Andre Williams DK $4,400
I said it last week when the Cowboys took on Marshawn Lynch. The Cowboys run defense is bad! Pete Carroll should have read my article because he inexplicitly abandoned the run game giving the Beast only 10 carries (he had 61 yards by the way, 6.1 yards/carry for all you math geniuses). Williams looked decent in the game against the Eagles, unfortunately, no one else did as they were blown out. I think this game will be a battle of the run game as both teams look to control the line of scrimmage. Finally, K.I.S.S. Let’s keep it simple, Williams is $4.4K and will see every-down work.

 

Defense

Buffalo Bills $3,300
Ok, I couldn’t help myself. I am repeating the Bills as my defensive pick. The matchup is just too good. I am sure they will be the most played defense this week and I am completely fine with that. I think they will score the most points. There is no such thing as a fade.

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Good luck fellas, I have given you two of my many lineups that I will be entering this week in the Millionaire Maker. I would be elated if one of them comes through big time and the top prizes are chopped up by me and my readers! Cheers! Oh yea, I joined this hot new app/website called Twitter. My screenname ,which the cool folks call a "handle", is @brycemcvay.