Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings 11/7/14

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Point Guard

Kyrie Irving - FD 7600 DK 7400
So a thing with DFS, especially basketball, is not letting one game effect the way you feel about playing a guy going forward. The other night Kyrie was awful and I played him in a lot of spots. He shot as bad as you are going to see from the guy. It simply will not happen on night-to-night basis and we need to get over the times he screws us (last game being one of them). He's in a super solid spot against the Nuggets and I like him to pay his number. It's a great sign for him (maybe not for the Cavs in general) that he's going to take his shots no matter what. That will raise his floor almost any night.

Donald Sloan - FD 5800 DK 5600
He's another guy I need to look past screwing me and realize that if the minutes are going to be there, these prices still haven't caught up. I played him when he scored five points and avoided him two nights ago when he poured in thirty. The truth is somewhere in between (trending lower) but that is still fine in terms of his value. The Celtics are playing the third fastest PACE in the league to go with the sixth worst Defensive Efficiency. That's a great spot for cheap opposing point guards like Sloan.

Deron Williams - FD 7600 DK 7400
The biggest part of Williams' value is in his minutes. He plays a ton of them, averaging about forty a night. If you are looking for cash game safety at a mid-tier price, he's one of your guys. I don't think he's ever a favorite to run super hot, but there's something to be said for banking his 40 (or so) points and calling it a night. Oh and the Knicks stink.

Elfrid Payton - FD 5800 DK 4700
Still coming cheap and I think he has upside.

 

Shooting Guard

Jimmy Butler - FD 6700 DK 5200
Jimmy Buckets gets to play Philly tonight and that's about all you need to know about this thing. It'll be the story for a couple guys on the Bulls tonight. Their slow pace butts up against a Philly team playing at one of the fastest clips in the league. The Sixer defensive efficiency hasn't been horrible, but I'm still inclined to say they are the Sixers and won't put up a ton of defensive effort on a night-to-night basis. Butler's value is wrapped up in his minutes and his value across the stat line.

Kyle Korver - FD 4600 DK 4800
Tough position tonight as always and I will often default to Korver as an ultra-safe play at a position that is never easy to fill. He gets his looks, plays his minutes and just generally doesn't sink the ship. He won't bust it out enough to have you hit top end on his prices, but he does enough across the stat line that you aren't too worried about him chucking up an absolute stinker.

Arron Afflalo - FD 5600 DK 5000
Man he came close to just crushing me the other night against Sacramento. Somehow enough of my other guys were able to pick up the slack that I was able to money cash games even with him in the lineup, but it was a lot closer than it should have been. He was dreadful. But he is starting, gets enough minutes on the right night and should be safe at these prices, though that might be pushing it some.

Consider Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

 

Small Forward

Chris Copeland - FD 5400 DK 5100
Early in the season, you're going to see a lot of pricing inefficiencies while the sites (or their algorithms) figure out who's who. Copeland is one of those guys. While the Pacers aren't starting him, the guy did incredibly well with 37 minutes off the bench against Washington. It's definitely a risky play, but the upside here is too good to ignore against the offense-minded Jeff Green.

Tobias Harris - FD 7000 DK 6300
Our projection system has a torrid love affair with Tobias Harris, and for good reason. Not only is he devilishly handsome, he is also good at basketball. More than that, he's got some of the most consistent opportunity in the game. Now - this is an interesting point - this actually LIMITS his upside in a lot of ways, because his price accounts for the fact that he's pretty consistent. But he'll deliver his cash game line with as much consistency as anyone at the position. One has to consider Wiggins an upgrade to Love defensively, so we can't really comment on the matchup - this is basically a straight system play.

Josh Smith - FD 7800 DK 7600
He's basically Tobias Harris with a wider range of outcomes. He'll have the odd game where he plays 44 minutes, and the random game where he gets in foul trouble and misses half the game. What do we love about him here? It's that Milwaukee thing again. The Bucks were the 4th worst team in the league when it came to defending the small forward last year, and Smith is a classic guy who loves to beat up on bad teams. Lots of upside and chest pounding possible here.

Also consider: Lebron James, KJ McDaniels, Gordon Hayward
 

Power Forward

Taj Gibson - FD 6000 DK 5100
Pau Gasol - FD 8400 DK 7500
It'd be no surprise to see the Bulls be cautious with Noah, given the fact that they'll likely blow the Sixers out of the water. And if they do? Gibson becomes a must-play yet again. He played 44 minutes against the Bucks and put up a ridiculous 23/10/2 with only 1 turnover. Again, if Noah misses the game he is a must play in all formats against a fast-paced Sixers team that incidentally was a bottom-3 team against the PF last year.

Pau gets the same treatment as Gibson, but more from a safety perspective. I'll likely not play him in GPPs because I think you can dig up better upside elsewhere, but if Noah misses the game, the safety is assured.

Greg Monroe - FD 7400 DK 7000
Monroe made a lot of owners absolutely ecstatic in his last time out, putting up more than 50 fantasy points in 36 minutes. And you know something? I... kinda buy it. He's shooting a little more this year, and he always had the potential to put up huge rebound numbers. Monroe's price won't stay here for long, but while it does, taking him against a Bucks team that allowed 11% more points than average to opposing PFs last season is a great place to start.

Kevin Love - FD 9000 DK 9000
Well, the price is starting to get weird on Kevin Love. I get that he's been a shell of his former fantasy stuff, but one HAS to believe that with all the media heat, Love will see his shots and general usage increase. It'd be one thing if Kyrie delivered on all those shots he's been chucking, but he hasn't. Denver was 28th against opposing PFs last season, and the guys they do run at that position are much better suited to defend guys down low. Prediction: the break out game we've been waiting for, and an immediate price increase.

Also considered: Patrick Patterson (if Valanciunas or Johnson miss the game), Channing Frye (if he starts), Nerlens Noel.

 

Center

Roy Hibbert - FD 6300 DK 7100
I'm going to go ahead and call Hibbert easily the safest play on a relatively large night in the NBA, with some upside to boot. With every person on the Pacers basketball team hurt, the offense can't help but give Hibbert lots of opportunities to put big nights together. Even on a night where he went 0-7 from the field, Hibbert paid better than 4x on his FanDuel price. Boston's undersized front court makes a nice match-up for Hibbert's below the rim game, and I'll be playing him in all my cash games.

Al Jefferson - FD 9100 DK 8500
We gave you Al-Jeff for Wednesday's games when he was a 1% start in the FanDuel slam, and he wound up putting up the best night of any center going (on a points per dollar + total points basis). With 25 field goal attempts, his averages are now right around where they should be. Horford has been playing limited minutes, and given what we saw opposing centers do against the Hawks in Horford's absence last year, this could be another huge Al-Jeff game.

Tyson Chandler - FD 5700 DK 5800
Chandler is one of the most secure center plays going. The Mavs rotations are set - he's playing 30 minutes a game barring any craziness. He isn't scoring dependent, and the blocks and boards are basically a lock given the spacing Dirk gives him down there. A great safety play, though I don't think there's a whole lot of upside due to the way the Mavs run their offense.

Also considered Steven Adams