Daily Fantasy Football Picks for Week 15 - FanDuel, DraftKings, Draftday, and Draftster

We hope week 14 was as much fun for you as it was for us! Ups and downs, strikes and gutters - but our feature guy from the week 14 picks article (Le'Veon Bell) did enough to make up for any woes we were having elsewhere. But why live in the past? On to the picks!

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Quarterbacks

Andrew Luck - FD 10100 DK 9300 DD 17350 DFSTR
Topping the list this week? Andrew the Giant. Even after an underwhelming game against the Browns, owners still walked away with a more than fine performance. Why? The Colts have simply given up on the run game. Like many teams, they've shuffled a lot of their runs into short passes, and Luck is involved in all of it. While it wasn't great to see him struggle against the Browns (he completed just 24 of his 53 attempts!), the numbers continued to roll in. And, to be honest, I just love him in this Houston match-up. The Texans have allowed the 5th most passing yards to opposing QBs this year, and the Colts aren't shy about running it up when the getting is good. Our projection system is in love, here.

Ben Roethlisberger - FD 8700 DK 7900 DD 14550 DFSTR
For some reason, the daily fantasy football sites are refusing to acknowledge that, for better or worse, Roethlisberger is an elite fantasy QB. He's paid more than 3x this FanDuel price in 4 of the last 6 weeks - with 2 of those being his 6 TD monsters. Like Luck, the Steelers are getting a ton of mileage out of their short passing game, and Bell is running the ball so terrifically that defenses basically have to sell out to stop the run. This week, Big Ben and the Steelers draw the best card in the deck - the Atlanta Falcons. They've allowed the most passing yards of any team this season. I'll be on Ben in nearly all my GPPs, and cash games as well if the money works out that way.

Mark Sanchez - FD 7500 DK 6500 DD 13600 DFSTR
Sanchez is a mixed bag to be sure, but there's a lot to love in week 15. First - the match-up. Sanchez scored 21.48 FanDuel points against the 'Boys on Thanksgiving - good for roughly 3x on this FanDuel price. Which leads me to exhibit B: the price. While LeSean McCoy has been grabbing a lot of the red zone action, Sanchez doesn't need to do a whole lot on these bargain basement prices to justify his deployment. Grab him in this one if you're looking to catch lightning in a bottle.

Jay Cutler - FD 8600 DK 7500 DD 13300 DFSTR
Drew Brees - FD 9200 DK 8400 DD 15300 DFSTR
The mother of all Hail-Marys. Both of these guys are as likely to go 3x on their price this week as they are to disappear entirely, and both have match-ups like you read about - their defenses are nestled next to each other at 29th and 30th against the pass this season. With a gun to my head I guess I'd grab Cutler. Even with Marshall out, I simply like the Bears' weapons better than the Saints. But I wouldn't be surprised to see either put up a monster game.

Also considered: Matthew Stafford

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Running Backs

Le'Veon Bell - FD 9600 DK 9600 DD 17600 DFSTR
Well, it's weird to brag about picking Le'Veon Bell every week, but here we are. The guy has gone over 200 yards in three straight weeks and sprinkled in 5 touch downs during that time as well. He's basically a rich-man's version of what Matt Forte was earlier this season. The Steelers are more than leaning on him in every phase of the game - he's averaged 32 touches over that span - and he has yet another terrific match-up this week. The Falcons are spiraling, and Bell will be the anchor of many successful cash game lineups this week.

Joique Bell - FD 7500 DK 5900 DD 10550 DFSTR
It was widely assumed that Reggie Bush would slice into the lesser Bell's value, but all Joique did was put together 133 total yards and two touch downs. His second straight week with more than 23 FanDuel points. And his price hasn't gone up. Bush touched the ball 12 times and was generally horrible on those touches. Bell was in there on seemingly every play inside the 10 yard line. He's their guy, plain and simple. And while Minnesota has done some interesting things against the pass this year, they're ranked 23rd against the run. I think the Lions get up, and Bell grinds them down.

LeSean McCoy - FD 8100 DK 6600 DD 10250 DFSTR
While McCoy is getting up there in miles, and is absolutely capable of disappearing, let's not forget what he did in his two games before this most recent dud against Seattle. Well, like Sanchez - we have proof of concept here. McCoy and the Eagles' running game utterly destroyed the Cowboys middle-of-the-road run defense the last time around. For cash games it's best not to over-think these things. McCoy will get the carries almost regardless of the game script, and is one of the surest bets for 20+ carries in the game. He'll get them, and he'll produce.

For GPPs:
Chris Ivory - a great match-up, and a lot of opportunity. And a ridiculous price.
Mark Ingram - Very affordably price for what he was doing a few weeks ago. All it should take is the Saints to get a lead on the ailing Bears for Ingram to be back north of 20 touches - especially if the weather is tough in Chi-town.

For Cash games: Demarco Murray. Even when they got stomped by the Birds, he had a fine game.

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Wide Receivers

Alshon Jeffery - FD 8400 DK 8200 DD 12800 DFSTR
Jeffery was about fairly priced before Marshall went down. Now? We might see a true blow-up. The only thing holding back Jeffery in our projection system is the Saints' effectiveness against opposing #1 receivers, but given the amount that Cutler almost has to look at Jeffery, that shouldn't matter much. Jeffery and Bennett were already very highly targeted receivers in the red zone as compared to the rest of the league, and they were basically splitting time with Marshall. Lots of TD upside here as well. But frankly, receivers with his talent who are getting 12-15 targets in a game will have trouble NOT putting together a solid game on any price.

Antonio Brown - FD 9100 DK 8700 DD 14800 DFSTR
The game's safest receiver added to his resume on Sunday, piling up 9 receptions and 117 yards while missing out on the end zone. There's not much to say about Brown, other than he's the NFL's most targeted receiver AND pulls down the highest % of those looks when compared to other huge volume guys. Against the game's worst ranked pass defense? Yup. Cash game play.

Josh Gordon - FD 7800 DK 7400 DD 10300 DFSTR
There's a lot not to love about Gordon's week 14 line. Believe me. I had him almost everywhere. But there were signs of hope, too. Gordon played a season high % of offensive snaps, and tied for the team lead in targets. The Browns were also trying to just force the game to end (unsuccessfully) against the Colts, which limited Gordon's downfield looks significantly. While it's weird to say this - I'm actually excited about him getting the chance to be paired with a rookie QB. No one could be worse than Brian Hoyer. While I lack the bravado I had about selecting Gordon last week, I'll be rolling it back against the Bengals 21st rank pass defense this week.

Charles Johnson - FD 6600 DK 5000 DD 7950 DFSTR
For what it's worth, the Minnesota rookie is what passes for a #1 up North nowadays. He converted his 8 targets into 4 catches, 100+ yards and a score last week, and continues to be Bridgewater's go to guy when the Vikes need a ball in the air. The not-so-secret in this game is that the Vikings will have ZERO chance to run against Detroit's best ranked running defense. They haven't been able to run against ANYONE. And they've got to be tired of watching Asiata plod to the line and fall over. I think Johnson sees 10+ targets while the Vikings try to chase the Lions' offense.

Steve Smith - FD 6800 DK 4800 DD 9400 DFSTR
Whoa, it's like a throw-back to week 3 or something! With Torrey Smith dealing with a swelling knee and serving as a decoy, the Senior Smith put up 70 yards and a touch on 11 targets. But what's overwhelming you here is the price - when Smith Sr. was the #1 target in Baltimore earlier this season he was crushing these prices with regularity. While I think the Ravens will get up, keep the ball on the ground, and stay up, Smith makes for an excellent mid-tier option against a Jags team that still manages to be in the bottom half of the league in passing yards allowed in spite of trailing by 100 points every game.

Kelvin Benjamin - FD 7600 DK 6200 DD 10850 DFSTR
The Panthers put a surprise beat-down on the Saints, causing Benjamin's targets and yardage to plummet. And even on 2 receptions, he managed to land one in the end zone. The suddenly frisky Panthers could beat the Bucs down as well, but far more likely is a close contest where the Panthers can't just lean on the well-aged legs of Jonathan Stewart. He's still a guy who will see ~10 targets per game going forward, and is his team's preferred deep threat AND end zone target. A lot to love about the upside here, regardless of who goes out as the QB.

Keep an eye on: Julio Jones. You hate to see the sore hip after what he's done the past two weeks, but if the Falcons are telling truth and he IS being held out for precautionary reasons, he could be the highest upside play of the week.
 

Tight Ends

Martellus Bennett - FD 6200 DK 5900 DD 11150 DFSTR
It's Martellus Bennett - Huge gap - everyone else for me, this week. With Marshall out, Bennett went back to gobbling up all of the short stuff - hauling in 12 catches on 15 targets in week 14. He was already the team's leading red zone target with a fantastic 19 looks this season, and he and Jeffery rate to split Marshall's leftovers (which would amount to roughly another 1 RZ target per game). The opponent really doesn't even matter here, but the fact that it's against a bottom 5 pass defense only sweetens the deal.

Greg Olsen - FD 6700 DK 5400 DD 11200 DFSTR
If you must, Olsen profiles like a poor-man's Bennett to me, this week. He's one of the only safe tight ends in the game - this week in particular, with the questions swirling around Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski's tough match-up. He gets red zone targets. He's targeted when the Panthers are winning, or losing. He's safe. Ish. But unspectacular. This Bucs game should see him gathering 10-11 targets, and the Bucs' less than stellar defense should give him the opportunity to get in the end zone.

If you're dead set on going cheap: I don't mind rolling it back with Jordan Reed again. He's the only guy in the low 5s price range on FanDuel that has a legit shot at 10+ targets. He's also had less than 25 yards receiving in 3 of his last 4 games. But so has every other tight end less than $6k. This is a GPP play, nothing more.

Hell bent on playing Gronk? Go for it, I guess. He's obviously got the best upside of any tight end, week after week. But I think Bennett is a favorite to outscore him straight up, and with prices continuing to inflate as the season progresses, I imagine I'll be happy to have the left over cash.

 

Kickers

Just a strategy note on kickers, since I figure I'll share what's working well for me this season.

I've been taking kickers against teams that don't have spectacular defenses in decent weather conditions. I don't look at the kicker's individual "skill" at all, just opportunity. Typically kicker will be the very last spot I fill, and while there are situations I'll avoid (I wouldn't play kickers against Seattle, for instance, or any team that's a 6.5 point or more underdog), I think you can justify playing just about any other kicker in a GPP format especially. Don't sweat this too much - just pick a guy that fits in with the rest of what you want to do and go from there.

 

Defense & Special Teams

Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens have been oddly awful against the pass this year, but they're a top 5 run defense once again. The bad news for the Jags? They're bad at basically every phase of the game. I actually don't hate Bortles as a punt this week, but I could also see him dying in real life on the field. The ball will be in the air early and often, and in GPP formats where you're chasing DTDs, the Ravens are your best bet.

Detroit Lions
Full disclosure, our projection system is a little non-plussed with the Lions in this go-around. But me? Not so much. Like I wrote earlier, I can't imagine how the Vikings will gain a single yard on the ground. And then I'm supposed to be afraid of Teddy Bridgewater and a bunch of rookies/practice squad guys? Not buying it. Bridgewater spends most of the game on his back, or at the very least, looking despondently as balls bounce off the turf.

Cincinnati Bengals
Not for the faint of heart. But before last week's drubbing, the Bengals had gone three straight weeks without allowing more than 13 points. With the Browns trotting out a rookie QB this week, or even Brian Hoyer!, the Bengals could absolutely run it up on the defensive side of the ball. With AJ Green firing, they could actually do something on offense to slow this game down and keep the Browns in that 10-13 point range that should have this game paying nicely for you.

Give a follow on Twitter @dailyfantasysr and @dougnorrie.

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