Daily Fantasy Football Picks for Week 16 - DraftKings

DFSR is excited to bring you Bryce McVay. Dude knows his stuff and he'll be bringing you picks specifically for DraftKings with an emphasis on that site's scoring system and value. We are pumped to have a great new voice in the DFS landscape.

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I will be providing a slightly different strategy to my picks. Specifically, I am going to give three tiers for each position. I can’t put an exact price range on where mid-level picks begin and end, but generally if two players differ by over $1,000 then they are separate tiers. The chief reason for these tiers is to show that there is more than one way to skin a cat, or this case win a double up.

If you choose plays based on tiers and create a short list, then this gives you multiple ways to form a lineup. Start creating lineups using a high-end QB and see what you produce. Then start over with a high-end RB and so on and so forth. Compare the lineups and make the call on which one you feel is the highest producer.

This method will eliminate the problem of getting to your last one or two positions and simply picking the highest priced player at those remaining positions. If you get down to the last few spots and realize you have too much or too little cap space left then it’s back to the drawing board. You want to avoid picking plays because you have the room. Stick to your short list.

One final note, I only play DraftKings and I have noticed that DK is not offering very many leagues that include the Saturday games. My favorite style of league are the guaranteed prize pool double-ups, thus I am only offering picks for the Sunday games as these are the leagues I will be playing in.

I wish everybody a very special and happy holidays as we creep near 2015 and look forward to bringing in the New Year with my family and friends.

Quarterback

Generally, the QB position is underpriced this week. I don’t think there is much reason to get creativity. Nevertheless, I will still create multiple lineups with each of my tiers.

Drew Brees DK $8,300 (ATL @ NO)
I don’t need to really go to deep into this one. Brees has a more than reasonable price tag against a bottom-three pass defense. My only concern is that Ingram and the run game will get the scores and Atlanta’s offense will have trouble keeping up without Julio Jones. If Julio is active, I like the play even more, but if he’s not the play is still my favorite QB of the week.

Matthew Stafford DK $7,000 (DET @ CHI)
This price tag baffles me. Calvin Johnson seems healthy enough. Golden Tate remains an elite WR2 and Chicago may currently be playing the worst overall football in the NFL. 21 points for value seems like a shoo-in.

Alex Smith DK $5,600 (KC @ PIT)
A 2013 pro bowler while leading his team to a wild card playoff berth, a career winning percentage of .548 and a career QB rating of 82.8. That doesn’t seem like something that could possibly describe the former number one overall pick, but those are the facts. Is it safe to say that Smith is the most underrated quarterback in the NFL? Sounds safe to me. Another stat that keeps popping up is that Kansas City has not had a WR touchdown all year, even though Smith does have 18 touchdowns this year. I personally think this trend comes to an end this week against Pittsburgh (See Dwayne Bowe). The Steelers are creeping into Jets and Falcons territory when it comes to the worst secondary in the league, but on the flipside the Steelers offense is surging and can put up points in a hurry. Smith will have to throw in this game and at his 5.6K price tag all we need is 250 yards passing yards, 20 rushing yards, and one passing touchdown to achieve value. P.S. I know he doesn’t fit into the “Low” price range but these constraints vary slightly for QB’s.

 

Running Back

I am completely skipping the so-called top tier guys because I’m not a fan of any of them. Of course Lev Bell is a monster but he’s the most expensive player on DK this week and has a matchup against a better than average run defense in Kansas City. I’m not playing him in double-up formats. I am giving you two middle-tiered picks (although I think these guys are both top four options this week)

Eddie Lacy DK $7,300 (GB @ TB)
The key to this pick is an injury, not to a Green Bay Packer, but to a Tampa Bay Buc. The Bucs placed Gerald McCoy on the injured reserve ending his season. The Bucs defense, now without their best player is in big trouble with Green Bay coming to the west coast of Florida motivated to get a win and keep themselves in the first round playoff bye discussion. The Packers will win this game easily and I think Lacy finds the end zone at least once.

C.J. Anderson DK $6,900 (DEN @ CIN)
Mr. Anderson is everything drafters wanted from Montee Ball at the start of the 2014 season. He has a knack for scoring in the red-zone, provide solid pass protection for Peyton, and produces with 2-3 receptions a game. He had an injury question mark going into last week but had no setbacks and looked healthy from what I watched. In this offense, he may have the highest probability to score of any running back and he is double-up gold.

Johnathan Stewart DK $5,200 (CLE @ CAR)
I was watching a random player interview with Clay Matthews Jr a few weeks back. The interview asked him the question, “which running back is the hardest to tackle?” He first pointed out the obvious in Adrian Peterson but ultimately said Johnathan Stewart was the single hardest running back to bring down. Since then, I've kept my eye on Stewart and see why Clay admitted to this. Last week, Stewart ran like a beast and he now plays the Cleveland defense that was torched by Jeremy Hill last week. In fact, the Browns lack of tackling is truly embarrassing. There are two things to watch with this pick, is Deangelo Williams active on Sunday, and will Stewart have trouble holding on to the ball. He had two fumbles (one fumble lost) last week and the one which didn’t result in a turnover was at a very critical time of the game. I am hoping a veteran like Stewart will get this under control and his playing time won’t be affect. Keep an eye on the injury report.

 

Wide Receiver

Calvin Johnson DK $8,700 (DET @ CHI)
Basically, you are flipping a coin between ODB Jr., Antonio Brown, and Basking Shark. After careful deliberation, I am choosing the Shark. I think all plays are safe and feel free to play two of the three if you go super cheap everywhere else. I can’t possibly make a case against the other two, but I will speculate that ODB Jr. must be doubled this week and I think Fisher and the Rams have to realize this. For that reason, I think he comes back to Earth this week. Calvin had a tough week against Minnesota but that was expected, the Vikings seem to have his number. The Bears on the other hand…do not.

Jordy Nelson DK $7,700 / Randall Cobb DK $7,100 (GB @ TB)
I commonly list these guys together because it’s impossible to predict which will do better. Moreover, considering the overpriced WR’s this week, Nelson and Cobb are actually in the mid-level tier at the position. As previously discussed, the Bucs will be without the pressure of Gerald McCoy and I think the Packers are going to humiliate the Bucs this week. I can see a week where Nelson and Cobb both have a score and 100 receiving yards. I am seriously considering playing them both as a tandem because at the very least one will reach the 6-100-1 stat line.

Dwayne Bowe DK $3,200 (KC @ PIT)
I am not going to admit to “loving” this pick. It would be silly to love a guy who hasn’t scored a touchdown all year. However, I do LOVE the matchup and as I mentioned under the Alex Smith header, I really think the Chiefs get a touchdown from a receiver this week. Bowe is the most likely candidate to be on the receiving end. The very best part of the pick is his punt price of 3.2K. Even if he doesn’t score, a simple 5 for 50, 4-60 gets us to 3.0 value.

 

Tight End

Rob Gronkowski DK $7,000 (NE @ NYJ)
A better matchup than last week and $600 cheaper. Yea, its strange, I know. He is far and away the most consistent tight end right now and you really aren’t paying much. Consistency aside, we must always default to achieving value. In this case, Gronk needs 21 points for 3.0 which is extremely likely. I see Gronk reaching the 100 yard bonus pretty easily, especially if Brandon LaFell were to be inactive. Signs point to LaFell playing but Gronk still remains a great play.

Travis Kelce DK $4,600 (KC @ PIT)
A superb match-up against a terrible secondary (See Alex Smith). He was the same price last week and more than achieved value with a 5-59-1 stat line. He did lose another fumble but with a Tight end this problem shouldn’t really affect his play time or targets.

Charles Clay DK $3,500 (MIN @ MIA)
Clay has averaged 5 receptions/game over the last four and is priced as a punt at 3.5K. Not the best matchup, but an average game produces 3.0 value. To be honest, I don’t really like the low-end tight ends this week and will do most of my lineup experimentation with Gronk at this position.

 

Defense

Buffalo Bills DK $3,500 (SF @ SEA)
I believe the Bills unexpected win was more of an aberration (i.e. 8 drops by the Packers) than a defensive gem. Nevertheless, the Bills defense is top three in the NFL and the Oakland Raiders are bottom three offensively. They led the NFL in sacks and that is everything when it comes to choosing DK defenses.

Detroit Lions DK $3,100 (DET @ CHI)
I am not sure what’s better for this matchup. Cutler or not Cutler. As we all know by now, Cutler is being benched in favor of Case Keenum. I honestly believe Cutler would produce more sacks and turnovers than Keenum but the matchup is still fantastic. The price tag puts the Lions in the mid-level tier even though this is for sure a top five option.

 

Follow me on Twitter @brycemcvay and look for updates come Sunday. I try and keep my readers informed on who I end up playing. Even now, I haven’t finalized a single lineup because the sport is soo fluid it becomes detrimental to make a lineup now without considering every single variable up the very last moment.