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Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

12/23/2014
Doug Norrie

Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 12/23/14

Welcome to our daily fantasy basketball column - where we provide the best daily plays on a points per dollar basis.

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Point Guard

Jarrett Jack - FD 4900 DK 5000 DFSTR 4400
This is if and only if Deron Williams sits again. I am putting Jack at the top of the list though because if he's starting PG then you basically have to play him at these prices. In his last two games playing big minutes with Williams out Jack has averaged 14/4/6. That's way more than enough to make him a must play as our system already likes the guy on his per minutes production. Check in closer to game time on Deron's health status.

Russell Westbrook - FD 11200 DK 11900 DFSTR 8200
He falls into much the same category as Jack (didn't think you'd see that comparison between Jarrett and Russell did you?) but Westbrook's top end value is very much tied to the health of Durant. This is to say, if Durant is out it's Russell time. His usage rate is off the charts when he's the first, second and third option for the Thunder.

Mo Williams - FD 5500 DK 4700 DFSTR 4900
He's back to playing the big minutes from the point as the Timberwolves seem done easing him back into the fold. Williams' price is about where it was pre-injury and he was a bargain then. We were only waiting for him to have the full run taken back from Lavine. Kyrie and the Cavs often make a good matchup for opposing point guards. The only question is whether the T-Wolves can keep it close. Williams isn't the best point guard in the world, but this play is all about the price.

Stephen Curry - FD 10500 DK 10900 DFSTR 8600
If Westbrook isn't in the cards because of Durant's return, you've got Steph. I don't need to go through the explanation here unless this is your first NBA rodeo. The Lakers allow a crazy 20% more than league average scoring to opposing point guards. And Steph is Steph. He's playing at a crazy high level over the short term after a run of inconsistency at the beginning of the year. I love the matchup and just hope the Lakers can keep it close.

Shooting Guard

Victor Oladipo - FD 6100 DK 6000 DFSTR 6200
With Elfrid Payton moving back into the point it has pushed Oladipo back over the two. He responded in his first game after the switch with a 23/3/3/3 line against the Sixers. Yeah, it's the Sixers, I get it. But remember that he faces the Celtics tonight, the fastest paced team in the league. Though he'll most likely have Avery Bradley on him, which does bump Dipo down a notch, I think he should be a safer play because of the volume and pace of the game.

Klay Thompson - FD 7900 DK 7800 DFSTR 6300
He gets the Lakers obviously, which is a great thing. Kobe isn't exactly a ball hawk anymore (understatement) and Klay should see plenty of opportunity considering the matchup. The two things that concern me here are the prices and the blowout risk. It's one of the best teams facing one of the worst and there stands a solid chance Klay doesn't see the fourth quarter.

Dwyane Wade - FD 8800 DK 8400 DFSTR 7500
If he plays he's got a solid matchup against the Sixers. Philly isn't quite the run-and-gun defensive sieve they were last season, but they aren't too far behind. They are sill well below average defending shooting guards and we know Wade's usage goes to the stratosphere when Bosh isn't around. Monitor this going in because if Wade is a go then he deserves a long look for cash games.

Avery Bradley - FD 4800 DK 4300 DFSTR 4300
On the other side of the ball from Oladipo we have Bradley who isn't spectacular by any means, but goes and gets his 33 minutes every single night. At these prices there's value in that kind of consistency. I don't think he will win you an GPPs but I don't mind getting some cash game money in on him.

 

Small Forward

Shabazz Muhammad - FD 6000 DK 5600 DFSTR 3000
His prices still haven't even come close to his new found opportunity with the Timberwolves. He's now their primary scoring option and is playing heavy minutes. He's still underpriced by a wide margin and I'll be playing him for a while if the salaries are going to take an eternity to correct. That's a good thing. He's been crushing it since Brewer left town and he takes so many shots that he keeps his floor plenty high that he can withstand even a subpar shooting night because he's coming so cheap.

Luol Deng - FD 5900 DK 6500 DFSTR 5700
With the Heat so banged up right now Deng is being called upon to play heavy minutes. I like him regardless but he's close to a must start if Wade is out again. Deng gets a nice defensive matchup against the Sixers and is needed to handle some increased scoring duties if Wade isn't around. Like I said, I would pay him even with Wade back, but his value ticks up if he's one of the primary options.

LeBron James - FD 10300 DK 11600 DFSTR 9500
He's one of the better big money options on the night in terms of value. With such a huge slate you are going to need to have some of you high-priced guys crush it in order to hang. If you think there is any way the Timberwolves can hang (and even a chance for LBJ if they can't) then you are getting a chance at the highest total of the night with Lebron. Minnesota really doesn't have anyone who can keep up with or contain him. It could mean the game getting out of hand early. But Minny, if they can just score some could help Lebron crush this number tonight.

There is somewhat of a logjam (in a good way) at SF tonight with guys like Demarre Carroll, Robert Covington, Wilson Chandler and Jeff Green coming in around the same multiplier.
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Power Forward

Once again power forward is a mess.
Markieff Morris - FD 6200 DK 6600 DFSTR 6000
In what should be a high-scoring game Markieff makes for an interesting consideration. His price has dropped a bit on a subpar game mostly due to a poor rebounding effort. The Mavs are a quick team and below average in defending the opposing power forward from scoring and rebounding. Markieff's price is in the lower mid tier mostly because he is prone to some total stinkers. But on a night where the position is crazy tough I think he makes one of the best options.

Mirza Teletovic - FD 4500 DK 4900 DFSTR 4300
Kevin Garnett - FD 5000 DK 4000 DFSTR 4600
Don't feel great about either of these guys because they split minutes (can one of them just be out please?!) but Denver is just that bad against opposing power forwards. They get crushed so it stands to reason that either of these guys could pay their price even in limited minutes. This is what happens when there aren't a number of punts on the board (which there could be of course) but you need to take the value where you can get it.

I think you can consider Blake Griffin at a slightly elevated price point mostly because the rest of the field is bad.

Center

Mason Plumlee - FD 6400 DK 6900 DFSTR 3800
I said it the other night and not much has changed. Plumlee's price still hasn't come close to the value he's providing now that he's the starting center with Lopez out. The minutes are locked in. And he's been crazy efficient averaging an 18/10 since taking over to go along with some solid block numbers. Basically, he's an upper tier center priced in the midrange and tonight faces one of the worst teams in the league at defending opposing centers. He is far and away the cash game play tonight and the rest of the field is well behind him in terms of value.

Tyson Chandler - FD 6900 DK 6700 DFSTR 5700
It stands to reason that the addition of Rondo will only help Chandler get more efficient looks. Though he's clearly the fifth of the five starters in terms of offensive options, Chandler can grab enough rebounds to make up for his lack of scoring considering the price. The Suns are one of the worst teams in the league at containing opposing centers and Chandler is cheap enough for some safety. Though as I said I much prefer Plumlee.

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