Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 1/2/15

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Point Guard

Mike Conley - FD 7500 DK 8400
On such a huge slate in the NBA, how is the discerning daily fantasy basketball expert to know where to begin? Well, the PG playing against the Lakers is always a great place to start. Conley's minutes are extremely consistent, and he has a way of chewing up teams with bad PG defense. He's pretty reliably around paying value on this price, and has some monster upside games in there as well (3 39.6+ performances in December). Conley is easily the cash game play of the day, for me.

Kyrie Irving - FD 8800 DK 9300 DFSTR 7000
With Lebron out for a couple of weeks, Irving will rocket to the head of the class in terms of safe point guards. It's only a shame that the sites adjusted so quickly to his price. Instead of being the steal of the century, he's merely a great play - and I expect his price will rise another 5-10% in relatively short order. The Hornets have given up slightly more fantasy points than league average to opposing PGs, and I expect that to continue here.

Trey Burke - FD 5500 DK 5600 DFSTR 5300
I kind of hope normal DFSR basketball writer Doug Norrie isn't reading these picks. But he will, because he's worried I'll make a mistake. What's up, Doug? Don't worry - it only took me 3 picks to make one. Well, here's my case for Burke. The minutes are back with a vengeance, and it doesn't look like anything he's done with those minutes is entirely unsustainable. With Burks gone, those shots have to go somewhere, and Burke could very well be one of the primary beneficiaries.

Also considered: Russell Westbrook, Matthew Dellavadova

Shooting Guard

Tyreke Evans - FD 7300 DK 7800 DFSTR
Shooting guard is one of the thinner daily fantasy basketball positions on any given night from a value perspective. So, more often than not, I find myself wanting to get away from it cheaply and relatively unscathed. While Tyreke's not exactly cheap, he's damn consistent for the position. He plays 35 minutes unless there's an extenuating circumstance, and does enough of everything to provide solid value from night to night. He's paid 5x in 3 of his last 5 games, and I like him even more given what Beverley should do to swallow up Holiday. Easy cash game play for me.

Dion Waiters
This is more of the "since Lebron is out" special. It hasn't manifested itself entirely so far, but I think the Cavs will struggle for scoring quite a bit with Lebron gone and Love banged up. Waiters has a super high floor on these prices, and I suspect they'll climb 20% by the time Lebron returns.

Eric Bledsoe - FD 8800 DK 9700
It's gonna cost you, but Bledsoe has looked terrific recently, playing tons of minutes and looking good in the minutes he does play. I won't play him everywhere because I'm concerned about the blowout, but don't be surprised if Bledsoe is part of winning GPPs lineups against a horrific Philly defense.

Tony Allen - FD 4300 DK 3500 DFSTR 4500
I think we've seen enough of Tony Allen since his return from injury that we can reasonably project his minutes. With the Lakers' up and down style, I think Allen will pile up a ton of hustle stats, paying this price easily. Lots of upside if the Lakers look even worse than usual.

Also considered: Kyle Korver for safety

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Small Forward

P.J. Tucker - FD 4800 DK 4700 DFSTR 4300
Our projection system has Tucker conservatively pegged for 28 minutes, and it still likes him as the best SF of the night. Why? Well, it's Philly's terrible defense again. They've allowed 15% more points and 13% more rebounds than league average to opposing small forwards. Tucker's on a nice and consistent run recently, including a 30 fantasy performance against OKC his last time out. Love this play, and will have him everywhere.

Robert Covington - FD 5600 DK 5700 DFSTR 4600
Covington's minutes have quietly come back up - he's played 35+ minutes in 4 of his last 5 games - and the production has basically followed. He's routinely paying between 5x and 6x on these prices, and the matchup with Phoenix (one of the fastest teams in the league) is a great one. It seems like one of the easiest and most logical stacks in the world, especially what we're seeing elsewhere at the position tonight.

Rodney Hood - FD 4000 DK 4000 DFSTR 3000
This is strictly an opportunity thing. If Hood is going to play 30 minutes a game, it will be awfully tough for a chucker like him to not pay value on a $4k price. But he's bad enough that he might not stick in the lineup. I'm monitoring the situation closely, but going to play Hood mostly in GPP formats.

Also considered: Trevor Ariza, if safety is your thing. The minutes are still there.

Power Forward

Anthony Davis - FD 11300 DK 11600 DFSTR 8900
If you're saving up everywhere, it probably means you want to spend somewhere. That somewhere? Anthony Davis. He's not quite on everyone's radar yet, because he hasn't turned the recent minutes increase into a direct production increase, but for my money he's the safest big $ play I can remember. He's playing 38-41 minutes per game, and he's one of the very highest points per minute guys that exists. I love the match-up against Josh Smith (or even Dwight Howard, if he covers Davis), and think Davis should anchor all cash game lineups.

Tristan Thompson - FD 5900 DK 6100
Since he entered the starting lineup, Thompson hasn't paid less than 4.5x on this FanDuel price. With Lebron out, it stands to reason that there will be more of everything go around - including points and rebounds for Thompson. There's nothing about the Zeller/Biyombo/Williams front court that should spook you. A breakout game is coming for Thompson at some point in the not too distant future, and I think it could start tonight.

Ed Davis - FD 5200 DK 5200 DFSTR 4600
Another case of inappropriate pricing. Davis is playing 30 effective minutes a game for the Lakers right now, which is more than pretty much anyone else on the team can say. The broken nose thing isn't ideal, I guess, but it shouldn't effect a lot of what Davis does if he has the mask on. Monitor it closely - but this is one of the safer PF plays if Davis is a go, even against a tough Memphis front court.

Paul Millsap - FD 8400 DK 9100 DFSTR 7500
A bonus pick in case Ed doesn't play. Millsap is an interesting guy, because he basically plays two different kinds of rotations: 36+ minutes, and 30 minutes. This makes him tough to stomach in cash games, but in big tournaments he's a guy that could definitely provide solid upside on this price. Utah's been a little bit worse than league average against PFs this season, and if it's one of Millsap's big minute nights, he could go off.

Center

Cole Aldrich - FD 5100 DK 5300 DFSTR 3600
Aldrich was looking like the play of the day against the Clippers until the Knicks fell down by 25 points and they started shooting 3s every time down the court. If Stoudemire doesn't return, Alrich is a virtual lock for 30+ minutes against a Detroit front court that is a heck of a lot more sizzle than steak on the defensive end. When he's the starter, he's just drastically underpriced. That's really all there is to it.

Marc Gasol - FD 9100 DK 9800 DFSTR 8100
If spending at Center is your thing, Marc Gasol is really the only option. He's scored 40+ fantasy points in 4 of his last 5 games, and he is getting by far his best match-up in this one against the Lakers. While the blowout potential is very real, Gasol has only paid less than 4x this FanDuel price in one of his last 10 games. If Memphis does stomp the Lakers, it will probably be at the hands of a lot of Gasol dunks and layups.

Zaza Pachulia - FD 4900 DK 4100 DFSTR 3900
With Sanders sidelined and Ilyasova out as well, Pachulia looks to be a relatively safe bet for 25 minutes. I think I like Aldrich's safety (because: Bucks) a little better, but I think Pachulia has arguably as much upside.

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