Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 1/14/14

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Point Guard

Kyle Lowry - FD 9600 DK 10100 DFSTR 7900
Still going to be another game without Derozan and that’s always fantastic news for Lowry. The only real question on him isn’t the production, but rather the price. His price is way up there because he’s been the go-to guy for the Raptors for quite some time now. He gets a solid matchup with the Sixers of course, but this game could turn ugly quick. Factor that in, but in terms of raw projected points, Lowry is your man.

Jeff Teague - FD 8300 DK 8500 DFSTR 6900
He rested last night, which was unfortunate as we were scrambling a bit to get in Dennis Schroeder in. But it wasn’t injury related and Teague has been a veritable monster in the short term. The Celtics haven’t been fantastic against point guards this season though some of that could be contributed to Rondo earlier in the season.

Michael Carter-Williams - FD 8200 DK 8500 DFSTR 7500
His price has dropped in the short term because of some real bad performances. He’s had some truly horrific shooting games and his minutes took a little dip. But I like where the price has come to and even with a tougher matchup against Lowry, think you couldl separation with this type of play tonight.

Monitor the Jrue Holiday situation as it could send some ripples down the Pelican lineup if he were to sit again. Also strongly consider Marcus Smart who seems rather locked in to 30 minutes a night.

 

Shooting Guard

Monta Ellis - FD 7500 DK 7300 DFSTR 8300
Going back to the well tonight with Ellis against Denver. Shooting guards have been a problem for the Nuggets this season as they are scoring close to 10% more points than league average against Denver. Ellis is in a solid situation here and even though he’s ball dominant, the points have still generally been there with Rondo around. Plus the price has dipped a little in the short term making him a solid value play at the position tonight.

Joe Johnson - FD 6600 DK 6300 DFSTR 5800
Know this: if you roster him, you will be one of the few. He has a tougher matchup against the Grizzlies. But our system has Memphis allowing about 11% more scoring than league average to opposing shooting guards and the twos are performing well in general against this team. It feels weird for sure. But JJ’s price has come down after some poor shooting nights and the Nets just generally struggling. You will be in the minority, but I think Johnson is actually an okay play here tonight considering the position is very weak on this slate.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - FD 4400 DK 3900 DFSTR 4100
You need to catch him on the right shooting night for sure. But considering his price and the minutes he’s been playing of late, the floor his high enough to consider him in cash games. This should be a closer game with New Orleans and KCP has a nice matchup considering the Pelicans’ struggles against shooting guards. What I don’t love about KCP is that most nights he is really scoring dependent. That is troublesome. But the price is cheap enough your risk is somewhat mitigated.

Consider Lou Williams in some GPPs. Arron Afflalo is in play as well. Also, Roy Devyn Marble is interesting if Tobias Harris is out again.

 

Small Forward

Jae Crowder - FD 4600 DK 4600 DFSTR 3000
If you played NBA DFS on Sunday there’s a good chance you had a piece of this guy (or wished you had). He got a big minutes bump from Brad Stevens and did everything he could with the new opportunity. Dude was everywhere on his way to a ridiculous 22/3/3/4/2 line. He’s still in play tonight, but there are a few reasons to temper some of the excitement a bit. He isn’t going to shoot that well from the field every night and I wouldn’t count on all of those points from the blocks and steals. But he’s still more than viable at his price point if we assume the minutes are there to stay in the short term.

James Johnson - FD 4900 DK 4900 DFSTR 4600
Still playing big minutes for the Raptors and the price remains very affordable. Johnson can pour in points in a number of different ways as long as he has the run and I love him in cash games because of it. He’s able to contribute across the stat line and when the scoring is there he really crushes this price. But the fact that every part of the line is in play for the guy has me playing him at this point and a good degree higher as long as he’s starting.

Nicolas Batum - FD 6100 DK 6000 DFSTR 5100
The Clippers are just brutal against small forwards this season and it’s no secret that this is a big weakness for their team. Some of it stems from them lacking the length to get out quick and extend their D. Also, Matt Barnes. Batum is a do-everything kind of guy and strikes me as safe in a game like this that should be high-scoring and closer throughout. His price is still completely affordable.

DeMarre Carroll - FD 5300 DK 5200 DFSTR 4600
Wanted him to play against Philly last night but the Hawks rested everyone and still killed the Sixers. Demarre should be back tonight against the Celtics in what also should be a fast-paced game with the Hawks able to score relatively easily.

Consider Trevor Ariza

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Power Forward

Anthony Davis - FD 11100 DK 11100 DFSTR 8800
Brow is tops in overall projected points tonight and it isn’t particularly close. If there was one guy to spend up for it’s Davis and I’ll be working, on this larger slate, to get him into lineups. When a projected multiplier is as high as Davis’s considering the price then you are looking at a dude with an awesomely high floor. Some of it comes from pulling Detroit’s PF deficiencies from the Josh Smith era of course. But they are still susceptible to attack in the front court. Should be a really good game with Davis at the forefront of the attack.

Paul Millsap - FD 8000 DK 8300 DFSTR 7700
Loved him last night against the Sixers. And then he got benched. I’m headed right back to it tonight with Millsap facing a Boston frontcourt that gets completely destroyed by opposing power forwards. They struggle with keeping opposing fours off of the glass as well as scoring. Millsap can put up some duds at these prices for sure, but the matchup (as Anthony Davis illustrated Sunday) is one ripe for the picking. That Millsap was rested last night means he should be ready to go tonight.

J.J. Hickson - FD 4400 DK 4500 DFSTR 4100
The only reason I don’t have him right under Davis in terms of how much I like him tonight is that I simply don’t trust Brian Shaw when it comes to Denver’s frontcourt minutes. If I knew Hickson was going to be out there for say 30 minutes as a lock I’d say he’s a must play at these prices. As it stands, he’s just merely a really, really good play. Makes a nice salary cap relief guy and really helps get Davis in your lineup. Hickson can beast even in limited run. If he plays over 30 minutes there’s a good chance he helps you win a GPP.

Jared Sullinger - FD 6700 DK 6700 DFSTR 6100
We had him as a top play against Brow and company the other night and Sullinger obliged to the tune of a 27/10/3 line that just destroyed his price and ended up being one of the top plays of the day relative to salary (Sunday was a huge scoring day). He is in a nice matchup again tonight against Millsap and the price is still advantageous if he’s over thirty minutes.

Consider Amir Johnson against the Sixers

Center

Chris Kaman - FD 4800 DK 4600 DFSTR 4800
If he’s playing the big minutes now from the five then he is reaching close to must-play territory considering his prices. This is a bigger slate so it’s a little easier to get away from him if there is value somewhere else. But Kaman, in the lower tier of salary is a nice cash game play considering he can rebound and score safely and gets a nice matchup against DeAndre Jordan. It was only one game that he saw over thirty minutes so keep in mind we could see a decrease in run. But even with a minutes downgrade he still makes a value play.

Hassan Whiteside - FD 5200 DK 5700 DFSTR 3000
This isn’t an ideal matchup if you assume he will be facing up against Bogut for the better part of the game. These are the kinds of games that take the luster off a new found toy like Whiteside. Everyone reaches their value peak as the prices rise. And while I don’t think he’s gotten there yet, I’m always worried when the matchups get real tough. But as long as the minutes are there for the guy, you can still get his skill set in at this price.

Jusuf Nurkic - FD 5200 DK 5700 DFSTR 3600
Imagine what would happen if he actually got to play 30 minutes. Just imagine.

Al Horford - FD 7300 DK 6600 DFSTR 7100
If you are looking to get some more money into this slate at center then Horford has a solid matchup against the Celtics who really struggle with opposing bigs. Horford put up a monster 21/10/10 against the Sixers last night in only 29 minutes last night. Now I know that had as much to do with the guys who were missing as with the matchup, but he is a fine value against the Celtics tonight.

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