Daily Fantasy Football Picks for the Conference Championships - FanDuel, DraftKings, and Draftster

The conference championship game! It seems like only yesterday that we were just minting a fresh DFS football season, and alas, we're headed toward the end. But that doesn't mean we can't make a few bucks, first. Let's do this!

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Quarterbacks

Andrew Luck - FD 9200 DK 8200 DD 14550 DFSTR
I went back and forth and forth and back when trying to figure out who to list first here, and ultimately landed on Luck. There are a few reasons. His match-up is the least terrible of all the remaining match-ups (as Flacco showed us last week). He has the highest fantasy upside of all of the remaining quarterbacks because A) the Colts will likely be playing from behind, B) they've moved a lot of their running game into a short passing game, and C) he's generally awesome. His price point is the lowest it's been in ages, perhaps all year. He scored 20+ fantasy points even when the Colts got drubbed by the Pats earlier this season. And that was a game the Pats tried to shorten by running the ball 40 times. While I think Revis can eliminate Hilton, I think Luck has developed enough of a rapport with his other weapons that he can pay this price and then some this week.

Tom Brady - FD 9100 DK 8500 DD 13800 DFSTR
Russell Wilson - FD 8900 DK 8000 DD 15000 DFSTR
So, Luck feels like the #1 guy for me this week. But I'm having too much difficulty picking between the next two. Both of them are looking at a rematch with a team they didn't do a ton against, fantasy wise, in 20+ point beatdowns of the opposition. In closer games, it stands to reason that both will get a little more play. But how much? My suspicion is that the Pats are the more likely of the two teams to move in the direction of the pass, as Jonas Gray's 200+ yard performance smacked more of a message to be sent than anything else, but it'd also make sense for the Seahawks to unless Wilson even more as the stakes have gone up. He's always a threat to put up numbers with his legs alone. This is going to feel like a cop-out, but after Andrew Luck, I'm basically flipping a coin between the next two guys, and deploying them based on how I'd like to stack guys throughout the rest of my squad.

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Running Backs

Daniel Herron - FD 7000 DK 5900 DD 10850 DFSTR
What we wrote about Herron last week:
In short weeks like these, you're going to need to find value somewhere to get any elite guys whatsoever into your lineup. Enter one Daniel "Boom" Herron. It looked for all the world like the Colts were saving their smaller but more talented backs (first Bradshaw, then Herron) and putting miles on Richardson during the season, and that's exactly what they did. Herron touched the ball 22 times en route to 141 total yards and a touch down, and was the Wild Card round's most productive back. The only risk here, I suppose, is that the Colts trail early and need to play catch-up - but I'm fairly confident that Herron's receiving totals at the very least are secure, and that he'll be the week's highest points-per-dollar guy again even against a very tough Broncos run defense.

Well, Herron had even more touches than the prior week - racking up 31 touches for 95 yards and another score against an incredibly tough Denver run defense. While I don't think he'll run the ball 23 times in this game (the Colts will likely be behind), the fact that the Colts have moved a lot of their running game into short passes means Herron's still got the highest floor on a points per dollar basis of any RB going this Sunday. The Pats just got shredded by Justin Forsett, so I don't think their run defense is nearly the concern that Denver's top-ranked unit was. This difference should justify the increase in Herron's price.

Marshawn Lynch - FD 8600 DK 7600 DD 13250 DFSTR
Where do you find safety this week outside of Boom Herron? It ain't easy. You can pray that Blount gets a decent load in New England, or you can try to run Eddie Lacy up against Seattle's run defense, which was the 2nd best team in the NFL in terms of yards per carry and yards allowed. Or, you could play Marshawn Lynch. Lynch was pretty darned disappointing last week, but allow me to make the case for this week. First of all, Lynch is a yards per carry monster - his 4.7 YPC number tied Le'Veon Bell and Demarco Murray. Second of all, Green Bay's front seven can get pushed around in the run game - they allowed 4.3 yards per carry. Third - Lynch posted 5.5 YPC and scored 2 touch downs when the teams met to kick off the season. Lastly, and perhaps most importantly - Lynch touched the ball an astounding 58 times in the red zone this year. Upside is here, relative safety is here - Lynch is the best big money play outside the QB position today.

LeGarrette Blount - FD 5400 DK 4500 DD 8000 DFSTR I26
Second time's a charm, or something? Listen, the last time the Pats played the Colts Jonas Gray famously eviscerated them in the run game. Jonas Gray, who no one had ever heard of before on a team that barely runs the ball, ran for 200 yards and 4 touch downs. Now, the Patriots completely abandoned the run against Baltimore last week, but there were a couple of clear factors in play there. First of all, the Ravens passing defense is WAY worse than their rush defense. And second of all, the Pats were down 14 on two separate occasions. This game feels pretty unlikely to follow that game script, which means the carries will go some where. On the shortest week in the NFL DFS season? I like Blount to put a little something together to pay this price, and it will let you spend elsewhere.

 

Wide Receivers

Julian Edelman - FD 7500 DK 7200 DD 12350 DFSTR
We gave you Edelman on the top of the receiver rankings last week, and he's back there again this week. Why? Let's break it down. I'm pretty much ruling out Jordy Nelson because I think he's going to see a heavy dose of Richard Sherman. I'm ruling out TY Hilton because I can't imagine a scenario in which he isn't stranded out on Revis Island. But enough about those other guys - Edelman is legit on his own. He saw 14 targets last week, and famously tossed a touchdown as well. Even more - it looks for all the world like LaFell is going to draw Vontae Davis, which should secure Edelman's floor and raise his ceiling. Sure looks like a must-play.

Donte Moncrief - FD 5300 DK 3500 DD 8100 DFSTR
On the same line of thinking, if Revis is going to shadow TY Hilton, this likely means Moncrief is going to see heavy looks from Luck. Moncrief disappointed owners last week, but he still saw 8 targets. I suspect that number will actually go up in this one, and while he's obviously not a guy that should be considered "safe," the upside here is tremendous - especially if the Colts are playing from behind.

Davante Adams - FD 6000 DK 4300 DD 5400 DFSTR
The last time the Packers played them, the Seahawks allowed the Packers to spend Jarrett Boykin on Richard Sherman and focus their bigger guns elsewhere. Since then, the Seahawks have shown that they don't mind having Sherman shadow a top guy. If Sherman shadows Cobb or Nelson (or picks one of the two), Adams instantly becomes a terrific play. If Seattle is going to line up Sherman on a specific side, the Pack could give Adams the same treatment Boykin got. All that said, the Packers deployed him fantastically last week - he tied Cobb for the team lead in targets (11) and led the team in receiving on the back of some very athletic catch-and-runs. He looks like a terrific value play.

Randall Cobb - FD 8800 DK 7700 DD 12800 DFSTR
I don't love a lot of high priced receivers this week, to be honest. If I had to choose one, though? Give me Randall Cobb. When the Pack and the Seahawks met in week 1, the Packers were still very much in "Jordy's going to get all the targets" mode. And even then, Cobb reeled in 6 catches for 58 yards and a score. This late in the season, I think it'd be silly to say that Cobb's nose for the end-zone is all luck. It's part of the Packers' game plan. And of all of the Packers' receivers, I'd say Cobb is the least likely to get the Richard Sherman shadow treatment. I'm still hesitant to spend up this much given how good Seattle's defense is overall (and Rodgers' questionable health), but this could be the one area where a risk really pays off.

Not for me: Danny Amendola. There are a number of reasons I'm not looking at Amendola this week. First of all, 11 of his 22 fantasy points came on a play the Pats might never run again. Second of all, there should be far less looks for Amendola if the Pats are playing from ahead, as everyone suspects. The argument for him is that LaFell's targets could be spread out, but I think most of those will go to safer targets in Brady and Edelamn. For the price it's hard to say you're going "wrong" with Danny, and the upside is obviously there, but I'll look elsewhere.

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Tight Ends

Rob Gronkowski - FD 8200 DK 7800 DD 14000 DFSTR
Gronk's ever-increasing price isn't making this one an easy one to stomach, but who else are you going to play this week? Luke Wilson has done a little something, but sees basically no targets. The Packers don't have a legit option. The Colts split their tight-end looks between Allen and Fleener. That leaves Gronkowski. Here's the case, if you need it. Gronkowski's usage goes up in high leverage games, because this is why the Pats are cautious about managing his health. He saw 14 targets last week, and stomped the Ravens for 7 catches, 108 yards, and a score. And there was room for a lot more. My recommendation? Go cheap at all three wide receiver spots if you need to, and roster Gronkowski.

Coby Fleener - FD 5500 DK 4300 DD 8200 DFSTR
I don't totally recommend playing him, but it felt silly to not list any other tight ends. All I'm making a stand on here is playing Fleener over Dwayne Allen. Allen looks to be the preferred red zone target at the moment, but Fleener out-targeted him 6 to 4 last week, and I believe Fleener has more big play ability. In a game where I figure the Colts will be trailing, AND where Hilton's targets are greatly reduced, we could see Fleener in the 8-9 target range, which makes him a very interesting gamble for GPP tournaments.

 

Kickers

Just a strategy note on kickers, since I figure I'll share what's working well for me this season.

I've been taking kickers against teams that don't have spectacular defenses in decent weather conditions. I don't look at the kicker's individual "skill" at all, just opportunity. Typically kicker will be the very last spot I fill, and while there are situations I'll avoid (I wouldn't play kickers against Seattle, for instance, or any team that's a 6.5 point or more underdog), I think you can justify playing just about any other kicker in a GPP format especially. Don't sweat this too much - just pick a guy that fits in with the rest of what you want to do and go from there.

 

Defense & Special Teams

Seattle D
I honestly think it's the only responsible thing to do. They're the only top top defense remaining, and they were able to soul-crush a healthy Aaron Rodgers in week 1. With the calf questions lingering, doesn't it look like Rodgers is easily the most likely guy left on the board to go out there and lay an egg? For cash games, it's almost impossible to imagine not spending up and grabbing the Hawks this week.

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