Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 1/18/15

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Point Guard

Russell Westbrook - FD 10600 DK 10200 DFSTR 8300
On a short slate, getting the right big money guy in is basically life or death. On tonight's slate? That looks like Westbrook. I don't think I've ever seen a line like 17/15/17 with 4 steals that he put up against the Warriors - who were second at preventing fantasy points to opposing PGs before Westbrook got his hands on them. So what can he do against the Magic's 26th ranked PG defense? Is "the sky's the limit" a dopey cliche? Because it really is. I don't think 60 fantasy points is a likelihood, but he seems the safest guy for my money to put up 5x at these high prices.

Elfrid Payton - FD 5300 DK 5300 DFSTR 4600
PG value is kinda sick for such a short slate. For some reason, the daily fantasy basketball sites ignore guys like Payton, whose situation and production can turn on a dime as his skills develop and his team figures out how to use him. These prices have begun to be simply stupid. He's put up 8x and change, 6x, and 5x in his last 3 games, and it looks pretty sustainable to me. He's a great rebounder for the position, and his defensive skills are translating wonderfully to the NBA. OKC has actually allowed the 6th most scoring to fantasy PGs this season, so this could be another great game for the Magic rookie.

Also considered: Trey Burke. As predicted, he bounced back back from a few unspectacular performances against bad match-ups to put up 5x on this price against the Lakers. It's a tougher match-up with San Antonio, but Burke has been pretty safe on this price regardless of match-up since Burks went down.
 

Shooting Guard

Victor Oladipo - FD 7100 DK 6800 DFSTR 6200
I imagine he'll be the top recommendation in many places, and for good reason. Victor crushed these prices in tough match-ups with the Bulls and Rockets (2nd and 9th against opposing PGs), and gets a far more favorable match-up against the Thunder (though they aren't slouches necessarily). Either way, the Magic SG has been playing 37+ minutes per night and making good on his incredible physical gifts.

Tyreke Evans - FD 7700 DK 8300 DFSTR 7300
Eric Gordon - FD 4800 DK 5300 DFSTR 4400
Tyreke ruined everyone's night on Friday, but if Holiday is out, these are my next two best plays at shooting guard tonight. Tyreke's projections are a little off since he'll be playing PG against Toronto (where they've allowed the 10th most Fantasy Points to opposing PGs), and Gordon will take on their league average SG defense. Both are underpriced relative to their production potential, and should see big minutes and a relatively safe output. Last game not-withstanding, for Tyreke.

Also considered: Manu. He's buried this price the last two nights, and our projection system likes him. Seems weird to play a guy who plays 22-23 minutes, but it could pay off.

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Small Forward

Gordon Hayward - FD 7300 DK 7800 DFSTR 6900
Well, Hayward was our top recommendation on Friday, and he absolutely blew the Lakers out of the water to the tune of 31/3/7. As I pointed out before that game - Hayward's minutes are absolutely reliable if the Jazz can hang. The X-factor here is Leonard, of course. He theoretically has the skills to take Hayward out of the game - but on a short slate with not a lot of great plays at SF, you may just have to grin and bear it and hope Hayward pays value while acknowledging that he might not absolutely go off.

Kevin Durant - FD 10600 DK 10700 DFSTR 8600
The Durantula's minutes are fully back. While a blow-out is in play, I don't think you can pinch your pennies on such a short slate. Durant and Westbrook are clicking like crazy at the moment, chewing up tons of usage and delivering for OKC. With Tobias Harris likely out again, that will leave Channing Frye? to cover Durant. He can't. Durant is going to go off yet again, and I think he'll pay whether he plays 3 quarters or 4.

It's a weird position tonight.James Johnson, but the minutes are so in flux. My suspicion is that Leonard winds up being the top play at the position, and depending on how the money shakes out, I might just wind up playing him and Hayward over Durant just to make the money work. You can also consider Quincy Pondexter, who's been getting a lot of run with Davis banged up.