Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 2/4/15
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There are some high quality plays here tonight with some questions marks going in. The good news is that many of the question marks are injury situations on the same team meaning if we get word early you can make the switch from one to the other.
J.J. Barea - FD 3900 DK 3400 DFSTR 3400
Devin Harris - FD 3700 DK 3900 DFSTR 3700
JJ started last game (much to my chagrin) and played big minutes with the first unit. It really looks like that will be the case again tonight and at these prices he becomes a pretty much a must start if he's rolling with the first team again. Even against a defensively stout Golden State team where he'd be tasked with hanging with Curry, this play is all about the price and opportunity. Keep an ear out for news but short of hearing anything I'd assume JJ is starting again.
Brandon Knight - FD 7600 DK 7100 DFSTR 6700
Jerryd Bayless - FD 4400 DK 4300 DFSTR 3800
This is another situation to monitor very closely. Knight sat out last game and even though he didn't draw the start, Bayless played 33 minutes coming off the bench. I think we would see the same scenario again if Knight sat. That being said, if Knight is back in the lineup I'd be fine rolling him against the Lakers who are by far the worst int he league at defending the opposing point guard.
Russell Westbrook - FD 11000 DK 10600 DFSTR 8700
I'm putting him a little lower on the list not because his raw points aren't there, but the guy above do offer some crazy points per dollar value going into this slate. That being said, we've seen what Westbrook can do when he gets rolling downhill with Durant out of the lineup. He becomes about the best in the business and you can consider him at these prices if he's going to be the top gun again. It really looks like Durant will sit again. This is an interesting spot.
Wayne Ellington - FD 5000 DK 5200 DFSTR 3500
There's a reason the Lakers are Ellington's fifth team in seven seasons: he isn't that good. But in DFS we don't make actual basketball skill our number one priority. No, instead we are looking for price and opportunity. I'll say it ad nauseum because it really is the biggest factor for many player's value. Ellington is a prime example. He's thrust into the starting lineup, playing tons of minutes and chucking up shots like Kobe's inhabiting his body somehow. He's averaging 15 looks a game over his last five and that kind of volume means something. He'll rebound just enough to not totally kill you when the shot isn't falling and should see his looks again tonight.
Dion Waiters - FD 4800 DK 4500 DFSTR 4100
Only in play if Durant sits again. But with KD shelved Waiters started last game and got his. He put up 15 shots in a nutso 41 minutes on his way to a 24/4/1 line. As with most shooting guards, Waiters is reliant on his scoring first and foremost. And with Westbrook dominating so much of what happens on the court, Waiters will have to capitalize on his opportunities. But if Durant is out and Waiters starts again, this is a great price to buy at a tough position.
DeMar DeRozan - FD 7000 DK 7000 DFSTR
He can sink your ship for sure, but Brooklyn has had a tough time against shooting guards this season. He's coming off an ugly game with limited minutes, but I'm looking for a bounceback game from Derozan here. He's put up more than 15 shots per game every time out and when he's hitting them he tops value on this price rather easily.
Consider Eric Gordon who's playing real well, but you are no longer getting him at a discount.
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Trevor Ariza - FD 5200 DK 5400 DFSTR 5200
His price has really dropped lately and even at this number he's still been up and down over the short term. He's got some really stinker performances in him which concerns me from a safety perspective. But this position is very tough today and you are going to need to play one of the fewer lower-middle tier options out there. Ariza is one of them. The Bulls have been just a little better than league average this season against small forwards and the prospect of the game staying close has me thinking Ariza sees his full run. Our system loves him here. I'm a bit more bearish.
Khris Middleton - FD 5800 DK 5600 DFSTR 4400
Jared Dudley - FD 4800 DK 4500 DFSTR 3500
I'd be willing to run them both out there assuming they are both in the starting lineups. That's less of a concern with Middleton as his minutes are locked in right now. He's seeing tons of run and playing well. He's really scoring dependent but luckily the Lakers allow tons of that. Dudley on the other hand could shift back to the bench if Ilyasova returns. I don't see that happening, but it's worth monitoring. Both of them will see minutes in the right situation and it's always good to have exposure to team's facing the Lakers.
Chris Bosh - FD 7800 DK 7800 DFSTR 7600
We highlighted Bosh as an elite play last night and he delivered. The big consideration with Bosh is that his usage rate skyrockets when Wade isn't in the lineup. He obliged by jacking up 24 shots on his way to a 34/3/2 line. The problem with Bosh is that he isn't rebounding at a rate you would expect from a power forward and is very scoring dependent. The good news is Minnesota has struggled everywhere on defense this year, power forwards included. He'll get matched presumably with Thad Young who, unlike Greg Monroe, can follow him around the perimeter. But I like Bosh here because the Heat him to score and should give him ample opportunity again.
John Henson - FD 5000 DK 5000 DFSTR 3700
This is of course assuming Pachulia can't go again tonight. If that's the case then Henson will surely be one of the most popular plays of the day and it's totally warranted. He's a per minute beast and just needs the run. The Lakers are of course a mess and he should be able to get things done on the interior. He should easily be able to hit value on these prices as long as he plays more than 26 minutes. If Pachulia is out this one is easy.
Brandon Bass - FD 5300 DK 5200 DFSTR 4700
Jared Sullinger - FD 6200 DK 6500 DFSTR 6700
I'm always very speculative of the Celtics and how Brad Stevens hands out minutes to his guys. For every game when a guy plays thirty you'll see him take a hit because Stevens goes with a unit that's working. Bass and Sullinger have both been victims in circumstances like this which is the only thing giving me pause on these guys. The Denver front court can get slaughtered so the matchup is choice. I'm just worried one of them sees like 22 minutes which would be a huge problem.
Tarik Black - FD 3500 DK 3000 DFSTR 3000
He is drawing the start in place for Jordan Hill and a modest minutes bump makes him a nice GPP play. He hasn't seen a ton of run, so this is rather speculative, but if the Lakers are willing to see what they have in Black then you could see him out on the court for a while. That alone would have him hitting value at these basement prices.
Hassan Whiteside - FD 7400 DK 7700 DFSTR
Price hasn't reached the breaking point yet considering just how much this guy can produce in limited stretches. It's frustrating to not see him come back in the game even when he seems to be producing at a high level. But the Heat do seem to be watching his minutes. And yet in just 24 last night he goes 11/10/5 with relative ease. Imagine if he hit thirty on a given night? Pekovic isn't a slouch, but I'm still buying on Whiteside tonight with the idea that it stays closer and the Heat are looking for a win down the stretch. The biggest case though for Whiteside is just how big of a wasteland this position is after him. There are so many question marks. I think that, as much as anything, makes me want to play him almost exclusively. I will give some other considerations, but they don't match his upside or really even his floor relative to price.
Consider Marcin Gortat if you think he can break out of his slump. You can also take flyers on Ian Mahimni and Roy Hibbert