Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 2/9/15

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Point Guards

J.J. Barea - FD 4700 DK 4600 DFSTR 3500
With Rondo sidelined through the All-Star break, the Mavs' diminutive point guard zips to the head of the point guard rankings. The price still hasn't caught up with his potential and opportunity, and if he's really going to play 32-33 minutes as the primary ball handler in the league's best offense, these prices should be ~%15 higher. The Clips do a pretty good job at depressing opposing PG scoring, but it won't matter given then price inefficiency here.

Chris Paul - FD 9400 DK 9100 DFSTR 8300
It'd be remiss to not to recommend Chris Paul, who will be going up against the defenseless Barea AND be without Blake, who tends to take a lot of the shots for this team. We haven't seen Paul's 5th gear a whole lot this season, but his performance against OKC shows that it's still there, and the Clips really can't afford to put it on cruise control in one of the most competitive conferences in NBA history. The combination of increased usage, bum of a defender, and a fast placed (and theoretically close) game makes Paul just about the safest way to invest a good amount at a high multiplier on any site.

John Wall - FD 9000 DK 8900 DFSTR 7800
Orlando has allowed 4% more points and 9% more assists to opposing point guards than league average, and Wall is the type of player who will keep the ball when it's coming easily to him. Don't be spooked by the checkered recent game log - Wall was paying 5x on this FanDuel price repeatedly, and nothing has really changed here except for the fact that he was pulled during a handful of blowouts. Is that a risk here? Sure. But I like him quite a bit against the young Payton, who gambles a little bit too much to stay in front of Wall and prevent him from creating chaos in the paint.

Also considered: Langston Galloway. Our projection system likes him quite a bit, if you elect to go cheaper.

Keep an eye on.. Ricky Rubio. If the Wolves play it cautiously with his ankle, Mo Williams would move to the head of the point guard class after his nice game against Detroit in plenty of minutes on Sunday.

Shooting Guards

Jamal Crawford - FD 5000 DK 5200 DFSTR 5400
Hopefully you heeded the advice in last night's picks, and got access to Crawford paying nearly 6x on this price against OKC. Dallas has been better than league average against the shooting guard position this year, but the increased usage and minutes (and even further increased usage with Blake gone) make Crawford essentially a must play.

Kevin Martin - FD 6500 DK 5800 DFSTR 5700
There are 7 minutes left in the Detroit/Minnesota game, and Kevin Martin has hoisted 16 shots so far. The dude is back into his full usage role, and not being shy about it. While a blow-out seems likely against the ATL, wouldn't Martin still get up these shots as the Wolves played catch-up? I also like the match-up with Kyle Korver, especially because the other high-usage guys on his team have considerably tougher defensive opposition tonight.

Kyle Korver - FD 5100 DK 5000 DFSTR 4800
On the other side of the court, this has "good Kyle Korver" game written all over it. K-Mart wasn't known for his defense 4 injuries ago - and in a meaningless game where he'll be shouldering the offensive load? It's nearly impossible to imagine him chasing Korver around the court. The Hawks' All-Star should get plenty of looks, and the Hawks' rotations are steady enough that he should be able to pay these paltry prices regardless of how the game unfolds.

Lots of similar guys at shooting guard tonight, to be honest. Check out a free three day trial of our projection system if you'd like to sift through them yourself.

GPP Special: Klay Thompson. A hell of a match-up with Philly, but a blow-out seems inevitable. Play at your own risk, but a huge performance is totally in play.

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Small Forwards

Tobias Harris - FD 6100 DK 6300 DFSTR 5900
Harris was a near universal play at this price on Sunday, and I don't expect that to change very much on Monday. The price is just wrong here if the new coaching situation is going to mean these huge piles of minutes, and you can expect a 10-20% price increase when we get back from the All-Star break if this continues. Pierce is still a decent defender, but should be no match for Harris' max-energy youthful game.

Kevin Durant - FD 10700 DK 10000 DFSTR 9100
Durant put up a decent fantasy performance on just 29 minutes against the Clips, and draws a sexy match-up with a Denver squad that's giving up 4% more points and 7% more rebounds than league average to opposing small forwards this season. Chandler can do some thing well defensively, but shouldn't be able to hang with Durant's stupid size/range combination. Some risk of a blow-out here, but Durant is as safe a bet for 40+ fantasy points as anyone in the industry in match-ups like these, with upside for considerably more if the Nuggets manage to avoid a blow-out.

DeMarre Carroll - FD 4900 DK 4600 DFSTR 4600
The price has dipped on Carroll after a combination of injury and general underwhelming performance, but the minutes have returned, and the production really should follow. The Timberwolves have really struggled to defend the small forward position this season - allowing 11% more scoring than league average - and like Korver, Carroll plays a pretty consistent rotation for the Hawks. I don't think it's a super sexy upside play or anything, but it's a nice way to walk away from the position without feeling like you invested a ton of money in Durant if it meant skipping out on a better big money guy, like Chris Paul.

Power Forwards

Ryan Anderson - FD 5300 DK 5400 DFSTR 5100
The last time Davis sat, Anderson dropped 38.3 fantasy points against Blake Griffin and the Clippers. If Davis sits again, I'm anticipating a similar performance against the Jazz. Favors would prefer not to chase Anderson around the perimeter, and I'm pretty sure Tyreke and Eric Gordon are going to slash and kick to Anderson all damned day long. I can't imagine making a lineup without him in it - is that high enough praise?

Chris Bosh - FD 7700 DK 7300 DFSTR 7500
I'm prepared to call the last 2 games for Bosh an aberration. Against a truly awful Knicks defensive front court, I'm thinking we're going to see the Bosh we saw against the Pistons on the 3rd - when Bosh went 14/23 for 40 fantasy points. The salary is just ridiculously low here for what Bosh should be able to do with Whiteside and Wade out, and he's looking like an awfully safe play in a game that the Heat need to win to keep pushing toward a play-off spot in the East.

Dirk Nowitzki - FD 6300 DK 6200 DFSTR 7000
Dirk is seriously flying under radars right now, and for good reason. There are some injury question marks, and the performance has been up and down. But you stop it right now if you think that will carry into this game. In the piranha infested waters of the West, every game with other contenders seriously matters. And with Spencer Hawes covering Dirk, what exactly are you expecting here? I'm expecting utter domination, and 30-35 minutes for Nowitzki in a game the Mavs will really, really want to win. Look out for huge usage and lots of open looks against Hawes, who really has no business guarding anyone on the perimeter.

Also considered: Paul Millsap

Center

Spencer Hawes - FD 3500 DK 3000 DFSTR 3800
Hey, just because he can't guard the perimeter doesn't mean you can't play him in your daily fantasy basketball lineups! The case here is obvious - Hawes draws one of the few power forwards in the league who shouldn't be able to shut him down out of hand (the aforementioned Dirk), and Doc left him out there for 35 minutes against the Thunder. Seriously - the Clippers have no big man depth whatsoever, and this price is a joke for a guy who will play 35 minutes at reasonable usage.

Brook Lopez - FD 6700 DK 6500 DFSTR 5600
If you decide you want to pass up the free money that is Spencer Hawes, take a hard look at Lopez. He's re-ascended the Center throne in Brooklyn, and has been positively crushing this price. I mean, the dude put up 60+ fantasy points a week ago against Portland, to say nothing of the 4 other games in his last 6 where he's paid ~5x or better on this price. He's had some of those games against good defenders - like Horford, Valancunias, and Gortat - so you can bet he'll bring the full force of his game against whomever the Bucks try to throw at him.

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