Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

James Davis

Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 2/27/15

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Pre-writeup note: It's just such a damned huge slate. I can't list every single dude who is a good play. If you want to see our whole recommendation list, just grab a free three day trial of our projection system and be done with it.

Point Guards

Russell Westbrook - FD 11200 DK 11200 DFSTR 8600
Westbrook has basically been paying these prices on 28 minutes a game. And in this one? He'll likely see the bump back to his normal minutes rotation - about 35 minutes in close contests. Listen, Westbrook is already one of the highest usage players in the league, and with Durant out, it just gets absurd. The quality of the defensive match-up is almost neither here nor there, but it doesn't hurt that Lillard is clearly an offense first point guard. On a night that's a HUGE slate, it makes sense to spread out your exposure, but I'll likely make Westbrook the main "big money" anchor of my lineups tonight.

Mo Williams - FD 5500 DK 6100 DFSTR 5300
Gotta go with Mo! The price is still plain wrong, here. He's had a couple of off games in his last two, and STILL put up 5x in back to back contests (to say nothing of the 8x he put up against the Thunder). Boston is slightly worse than league average against point guards, but this is still a case of inaccurate pricing. Mo's price will steadily climb (I forecast another 15%-20% growth as the season progresses), so you might as well get him now while there's a hot buying opportunity. Now, on such a huge slate there is likely to be super-cheap buying opportunities and various positions, but Mo isn't a guy I would move off of, if I could.

Aaron Brooks - FD 4500 DK 4500 DFSTR 3700
He may not have gotten as many minutes as some had forecast, but Brooks was still a point-per-dollar monster in the Bulls' loss to Charlotte. And if he was able to put up 5.5x in 28 minutes against Charlotte's league average D, I suspect he'll be able to do quite a bit more damage to Minnesota's point guard defense, which has allowed 8% more scoring than league average this season. Ricky Rubio has been playing fine on the offensive side of the ball, but his gambling tendencies should give Brooks a lot of leeway to cause havoc.

Other reasonable mid-tier options: Jeff Teague, Ricky Rubio.

Possible punt: If Beal is out again, Garrett Temple makes a phenomenal play.


Shooting Guards

Jamal Crawford - FD 5600 DK 5500 DFSTR 5600
On the surface, it might seem counter-intuitive to recommend a shooting guard against Memphis, what with Tony Allen existing and everything. But the dirty secret? Defending the shooting guard has been Memphis' biggest weakness this season. Which is to say they've been league average against them. But still - Memphis' scary interior defense will push the Clips' production toward the wings, which means it's going to have to rest on JJ Redick (also a fine play, per our projection system), and Crawford. I think the Clips will be looking to bounce back after a tough loss, and that Crawford will be featured prominently in the attack this time around. And if worse comes to worse, he didn't kill you with what he did against Memphis last time out.

Tony Snell - FD 3600 DK 3700 DFSTR 3000
As I look across the shooting guard landscape tonight, I see a lot of question marks. Wade's minutes have been all over the place. Harden's got his ankle. Oladipo has serious blow-out risk. You know who has the highest points per dollar floor of any of these guys? Tony Snell. If he's going to play 30 minutes, it's simply hard NOT to pay 4x on these prices. And the blow-out possibilities against Minny only make his case even stronger (of the three guards, he is the least likely to have minutes probs in a blow-out). And I mentioned his floor - there's real upside here as well. If he's just going to be on the floor for 30ish minutes, he's shown 8x-9x potential on these prices.

Klay Thompson - FD 7100 DK 7800 DFSTR 7000
If you're looking for a middle-tier guy with nice security, our projection system thinks you could do a lot worse than Klay Thompson. He's got minutes risk against poor opponents, but Toronto should be able to keep it close enough that Thomspon plays his 35+ minute rotation. If that comes to fruition, it's hard to imagine the offense-first DeRozan chasing him around for the entire time enough to keep Klay from getting his. 4.5x his FanDuel price seems like a lock, with upside for more.

Also considered: James Harden, if this ankle thing winds up being no big deal. Our projection system loves him against Brooklyn.


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Small Forwards

James Johnson - FD 4100 DK 4700 DFSTR 4500
Why James Johnson's price hasn't climbed is anybody's guess. Even if you (probably rightfully) think his 41 fantasy point explosion against Houston was an aberration, you've still got to concede that his floor in the starting lineup was his 19 fantasy point performance against Dallas. And that would be almost 5x on this price! I could break down match-ups and whatnot, but I'll save you the time - while Johnson's price is this low, he's a must play while he's in the starting lineup, especially in games that rate to be close.

Danilo Gallinari - FD 5100 DK 5500 DFSTR 3900
As a guy who lived near NYC during Gallinsanity, I have to say I'm enjoying seeing Gallo log 30 minutes a game again. Amd so are his daily fantasy basketball players! Gallinari has scored 20 points and 5x on this FanDuel price in back to back contests, and is showing no signs of slowing down as the attrition of Denver's forwards continues. Will he crumple like aluminum foil at some point? Sure. But what do you care? This is daily fantasy hoops! While Utah isn't the best match-up for opposing 3s, we're in a "wrong price" situation here as well. Huge floor, and great ceiling for Gallinari in this one.

Trevor Ariza - FD 5700 DK 5900 DFSTR 5100
Well, with KJ McDaniels not seeing the floor, Ariza's playing time has weathered yet another wing acquisition! The man who does a little bit of everything has turned in back to back solid fantasy performances, and it looks for all the world like he'll continue to be a bargain with a super-high floor at these sub $6k prices on FanDuel.

A little riskier, but... Wesley Johnson has averaged 30 minutes off the bench in the last two games, and paid on these prices handsomely. Not many will play him, and could be an interesting separation play. Also, Quincy Pondexter somehow played 40 minutes last game. I don't know what to tell you. I just thought you should know.

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Power Forwards

Brandon Bass - FD 5400 DK 5600 DFSTR 4600
I'm sure I'm not the only one enjoying Brandon Bass week, part deux. He disappointed in his last contest with the Knicks, but had been sparkling on these prices before then, averaging 29 fantasy points per game since sliding into the starting lineup with Olynyk and Sullinger out. Charlotte's a tick better than league average at defending opposing small forwards, but Bass' opportunity and price make him basically a must play in any game that doesn't rate to be a blowout.

Terrence Jones - FD 6300 DK 6500 DFSTR 4100
Jones is back, and has picked up right where he left off as an underpriced daily fantasy basketball stud. He's starting, getting his minutes, and putting up better than 5x per game on this FanDuel price since returning from injury. And our projection system might actually be underselling what he could do in this one. While there's some blow-out risk, Thaddeus Young is a significant defensive downgrade at the PF position from the guy he took minutes from. Jones could hit the upper end (35+ fantasy points) of his normative production here and I wouldn't be surprised at all.

Derrick Favors - FD 7500 DK 7400 DFSTR 7300
Favors is a different fantasy player than he has been in the past - turning in far more consistent performances than he had earlier in his career. In his last 10 games, he's been between 30 and 35 fantasy points in 7 of them, put up 1 monster game, and 2 duds. For the most part, you'll take that track record for your cash games. What you really love here is the match-up: Denver has allowed more than a league average amount of every fantasy category, including 4% more scoring than league average to opposing power forwards. I don't know that I see a monster performance here, but you could do a lot worse from a safety perspective.

Also considered: Our projection system likes Aldridge, but I'm concerned about the thumb thing. Still, close game possibility here, and his thumb didn't stop him from launching 19 shots last time around. Stacking him and Westbrook with a bunch of punts could be an interesting GPP hail Mary.

A fun cheap guy: Kevin Garnett! He stomped this price in his first game back as a Wolf. He could definitely do it again.


Rudy Gobert - FD 6400 DK 6500 DFSTR 4700
I am just so damned delighted to see Rudy Gobert finally getting all the run at the center position that he can handle. Gobert has averaged an easy 38 fantasy points per game in his last two contests, posting 14 boards and 3 blocks in each. And the Frenchman will draw Denver's desperately awful center defense in this one - they've allowed 12% more scoring than league average to opposing 5s this season. I expect Gobert to be the highest % started center by a wide margin.

Marcin Gortat - FD 5500 DK 5200 DFSTR 5800
DFSR projection system favorite Marcin Gortat, ladies and gentlemen! He's averaged better than 6x fantasy points per dollar in his last three games, and gets his most favorable match-up by far in the Philadelphia 76ers. Listen - the Sixers might not win another game, but Gortat should go out there and curb-stomp them for the few minutes he does play. And since he does play weird minutes, he's actually less susceptible to blow-out risk than most. I think the Wiz try to get right here against the Sixers, and leave it all on the table, with Gortat leading the charge down low and on the boards.

Also considered: Our projection system loves Tyler Zeller, and thinks you shouldn't be spooked about the low playing time foul trouble aberration the last time around. And for punt purposes? Alexis Ajinca might go nuts, if the Pelicans actually give him a full run of minutes at some point.

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1 Visitor Comment

  1. You put Terrence Ross but it sounds like you meant Terrence Jones

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