Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

Doug Norrie

Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 3/3/15

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Point Guards

Mo Williams - FD 6600 DK 7000 DFSTR 5100
There’s bad at defending a position, there’s unable to guard a position and then there’s what the Lakers do against point guards. They are allowing about 21% more scoring than league average to opposing point guards with no real end in sight on that getting better. Mo is now the man in Charlotte with Kemba down and should continue to draw huge minutes. He’s been crazy productive and even with the price climbing you are getting elite value here.

Aaron Brooks - FD 4500 DK 4600 DFSTR 3800
The Bulls are seriously lacking in offensive options right now in the backcourt. And I will get to all of the Bull value later on in this article. But I am still buying very much on Brooks. I suspect he sees well over 30 minutes here and you are buying him at a crazy value mostly because he's been running so bad in his shooting. For his career he's over 40% from the field and in the last five or so games, he is way under that. This is the bargain of the day really I think and you are getting tremendous value on him.

Langston Galloway - FD 5400 DK 4900 DFSTR 5400
Jose Calderon is on the shelf for the next few weeks leaving the Knicks with very few backcourt options. Calderon (and to a lesser extent Shane Larkin) are the last men standing with Langston most in line for a nice bump in production. The only thing worrying me just a little is that Alexey Shved has cut into some backcourt minutes there.

Patrick Beverley - FD 4800 DK 4500 DFSTR 4300
If you think he sees a minutes and usage bump with Harden sitting this one out, then Beverley is right with Galloway in terms of value. There's a lot to like about point guard on this slate and one sites like Draftster and DraftKings where you can roster at least three of these guys, you are in luck.

Our projection system also likes Jordan Clarkson


Shooting Guards

Tim Hardaway Jr. - FD 4600 DK 4200 DFSTR 4300
This follows much of the same reasoning as Galloway. With Calderon out of the lineup there is more backcourt time to go around as Galloway gets pushed to the point. Hardaway's been playing well into the thirties in his minutes and has been productive. Where I'm tempered a bit with Hardaway is that much of his fantasy production comes from his scoring and he's shot over 50% from the field in his last two games. That's well above his career number so take heed. But I still like the price and the matchup against the Kings who get shredded by shooting guards.

Kyle Korver - FD 4900 DK 5000 DFSTR 5100
Been awhile since I've talked about him at all. He's been lost in the mix for me. But the price has really come down in some spots and is playing in a game that could see the Hawks pour on the points. The Rockets are without Harden which makes them vulnerable from a blowout perspective, but Korver is priced in such a way that a productive half could have him close to value.

Giannis Antetokounmpo - FD 6400 DK 7100 DFSTR 5600
Denver is a mess of a team. They don't know if they are coming or going (mostly going) and couldn't figure out a rotation to save their lives. The Bucks could put a defensive clamp down on them starting with Giannis. His minutes are still there and with Denver's defense so weak Giannis could see more shots. This could a stat line filler for the dude considering the opponent.

Tony Snell - FD 3800 DK 3600 DFSTR 3000
Over his last five games he’s shooting 50% from beyond the arc. This kind of lights out shooting isn’t going to continue. But the minutes should. He’s been seeing run in the thirties and with Butler out now, that should continue. Much of his value is wrapped up in his scoring which always worries me because guys like this can bottom out when they can’t find a rhythm. But the price is fine and opportunity is there.


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Small Forwards

LeBron James - FD 11200 DK 10400 DFSTR 8400
I suspect that because of all the value plays today he will be a high percentage start in cash games. I have no problem with this. There are very few big money options and tons of punt-ish plays. It will be very easy to fit his salary so go for it. Look, it's Lebron, what do you want me to say here?

Danilo Gallinari - FD 5200 DK 5200 DFSTR
Speaking of how big of a mess Denver is right now, Gallo is one of the few guys whose minutes and opportunity feel somewhat safe. Or as safe as Brian Shaw can be. His price is creeping up but I still think you are getting an ok deal here in most spots. He's been putting up about 20 points a game in the short term and is doing just enough of the other stuff to stay in the mix. It's close on the auxiliary stats as he really needs that scoring, but he should be in a fine spot against the Bucks who are below average against both the shooting guard and small forward position depending on what Gallo is playing.

Rudy Gay - FD 7600 DK 7700 DFSTR 7200
This is mostly contingent on Boogie sitting out again. Cousins was called really early on Sunday which makes me think he is doubtful for this one, but we will see. If Cousins sits then Gay is a great add as he instantly becomes the highest usage guy on the Kings and it isn't particularly close. He's shot at least twenty times in two of the last three games and is content to chuck all day long with no Boogie-man on the court. Again, monitor this situation but if Gay is by himself on the court then he becomes close to a must play in cash games.

Ersan Ilyasova - FD 4300 DK 4400 DFSTR 4000
Speaking of contingencies, if Brewer draws the start for Harden tonight then he instantly vaults to the top of the list. The minutes bump alone will be worth it, not to mention all of Harden's shots which need to land somewhere. There's a chance they play Terry at the two as well, so check into what McHale says about the situation leading into gametime.

Jeff Green - FD 4600 DK 4800 DFSTR 5100
If Gay gets the downgrade because Cousins is back and Brewer is still coming off the bench, then this position thins out real quick. Green makes an interesting play against the Jazz. This will be a plodding game and Memphis might roll Utah, but Green has been chipping away at the little things. Maybe Memphis is wearing off on him...in a good way. If he can get the scoring going then he easily pays. But the shot attempts aren't always there so don't get too excited.


Power Forwards

Nikola Mirotic - FD 4500 DK 4400 DFSTR 3100
Butler is down. Gibson is down. Rose is down. (It’s a literary device to continue repeating the same kind of sentence instead of grouping all the nouns together. That device is called: laziness.) The Bulls are a wreck and the minutes have to go somewhere. Now Thibs has been known to zig when you thought he was going to zag. But I just think Mirotic sees a bump here after his 31 minute, 23 shot affair against the Clippers on Saturday. He was a beast and will likely be one of the more popular plays on this slate.

Kevin Love - FD 8100 DK 7900 DFSTR 7300
There are going to be some money issues tonight, meaning there are so many cheaper options on this slate that getting money in good will be tough. With Irving and Lebron both back and playing he becomes a bit of the third wheel again. But the Celtics have had issues defending power forwards all season. Love doesn't pound the boards, or really even post up like he used to, but he still creates matchup problems and should be able to get enough threes off in this one to come close to value.

Terrence Jones - FD 6500 DK 7000 DFSTR 4100
Is a nice midrange value on the day especially considering the Rockets will be without Harden. Jones was a layup disaster the other day against the Cavs which ended up really costing him a big time scoring day. He's there for his offense and should see a few more shots in this one.

Ersan Ilyasova - FD 4300 DK 4400 DFSTR 4000
Andrea Bargnani - FD 4600 DK 4500 DFSTR 3900
Joins the oodles of cheaper values plays on this slate. They both are very hit or miss though the minutes seem to be there for both. Can frustrate the hell out of you, but can also help you win a GPP on a night in which they are scoring.



DeMarcus Cousins - FD 10900 DK 9800 DFSTR 7200
I am putting him first here with a caveat of course. He needs to play. If he doesn't play you will accumulate exactly zero points in your lineup. But if he does play, I will play him in almost every lineup. The logic is this: there is so much value on this slate that I would just assume take an 80% Boogie. That's how easy it is to fit the money here. Again, he might not go and if he doesn't you are definitely playing Lebron (can easily play them both for what it's worth). But if he is getting the start against the center-less Knicks then go for it.

Al Jefferson - FD 8200 DK 7800 DFSTR 6900
If Cousins isn't playing, here's another place to get some more money in. Center is one of the few positions that doesn't have some of those cheaper upside plays, so getting him against the Lakers is a fine spot. It's worth it to note that the Lakers have somehow kept opposing centers from scoring (probably because the opposing point guard is getting to rim with ease) but they do allow 12% more rebounding to the position. Jefferson is a solid way to round out some of that dough tonight.

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