Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 3/6/15
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Greivis Vasquez - FD 4500 DK 5000 DFSTR 4000
We rolled Vasquez hard two nights ago, to great effect. Even with foul trouble, low usage, and poor shooting - Vasquez managed 30+ fantasy points. And while Mo has been on quite a roll offensively for the Hornets, he's no defensive stalwart. But the match-up is almost neither here nor there. If Lowry is still out, Vasquez is my play of the day at the point guard position.
George Hill - FD 6400 DK 6300 DFSTR 5400
While a lot of other point guards have been doing absurd things recently, George Hill has sort of floated under the radar. All he's done? Put up 5x on this price in 5 consecutive games including a ridiculous 49 fantasy point performance against Kyrie and the Cavs. He embarrassed the Knicks in reduced minutes on Wednesday, and while he won't embarrass the Bulls, Aaron Brooks is not exactly a defense-first point guard. Our projection system thinks he's the second best play after Vasquez, and you could argue that his significantly higher floor makes him a better cash game play.
Mike Conley - FD 6200 DK 5900 DFSTR 6300
It will be interesting to see how the industry reacts to Conley going into tonight's game. I did my best to find reasons not to list him here based on the last week's performance, but even on a modest 29 minutes, our projection system really likes him. The reasons are obvious, of course - the Lakers allow a staggering 18% more points to opposing point guards this season, and the eyeball test confirms the statistics. And it's not like Conley has been awful or anything - he averaged 37.5 fantasy points in back to back games in late February. Don't get me wrong, I'm going to do my best to play the above guys, but I think you could make a very interesting GPP case for Conley tonight.
Also considered: It's hard to ignore Aaron Brooks, even after a stinker. I think the minutes will take a bump back up in the other direction.
Victor Oladipo - FD 7200 DK 7000 DFSTR 6200
Oladipo came through with a true breakout performance in Wednesday's game against the Suns, and will undoubtedly be a very popular play tonight. And it's interesting, because while it's tempting to write off his 38 point game as a fluke, there were underlying indicators pointing in that direction. His usage has been up recently, and young players tend to increase usage slowly over time, instead of assuming their maximum role right away. For fantasy purposes, he's not totally reliant on scoring (the way some shooting guards are) to put up a decent fantasy game. He can just as easily run hot in steals, or even rebounds. I've written about it before (and I probably buried the lead here), but Sacramento has been horrible at defending shooting guards this season. Their 12% more points than league average allowed ranks only behind Philadelphia's number. Great spot with a high floor and high ceiling.
Rodney Stuckey - FD 5300 DK 5800 DFSTR 4300
Stuckey had been killing it in the Lance Stephenson's old role, and was on pace for another monster against the Knicks before the blow out settled in. It's clear that the Pacers would like to play him 28-35 minutes when the game is close, and the way the Pacers have been playing recently, I don't see why his minutes won't be there against Chicago. The Bulls aren't the same team on the perimeter with Jimmy Butler out, and I think Stuckey could fair pretty well against the Bulls' back-up wings.
Joe Johnson - FD 6000 DK 5600 DFSTR 5400
It's been a true nightmare of a disaster situation for Joe Johnson in his last two games, but we have to be careful not to get too carried away. He had been in between the 4.5x-5x payout range pretty consistently before the recent nosedive, but I don't see anything underlying those numbers other than statistical noise. The other stuff we had been seeing from Johnson - his crashing the boards, and playing tons of minutes, are what are driving my recommendation here. Oh - Phoenix is also a super-duper match-up for opposing Shooting Guards like Johnson, allowing 8% more scoring and 9% more rebounds than league average.
Also considered: Kyle Korver.
Rudy Gay - FD 7400 DK 7300 DFSTR 7500
Gay has been fantastic in several of his games recently, and bad in a few others. But two of those games were against the Spurs, and one of those was against the Clippers. In his games against non-great opposition, Gay has been a marvel. I'd say a gimpy Tobias Harris counts as "non-great opposition." Orlando is a team that the Kings could hang with, and if so, Gay will be in a position to get his full assortment of minutes. Our projection system is incredibly bullish if that's the case.
Kawhi Leonard - FD 7300 DK 7400 DFSTR 7100Leonard has been in beast mode, scoring 35+ fantasy points in each of his last four games. Admittedly, two of those games were against a lackluster Sacramento defense, but the Nuggets have actually fared worse than the Kings against the position this season, allowing 6% more scoring and 12% more rebounding than league average. A blow out is in play, sure, but that didn't matter in the two Sacramento games. Leonard is the man in San Antonio right now, and if a blow-out happens, it will be because he's doing the blowing. Did I just write that?
Richard Jefferson - FD 3600 DK 3300 DFSTR 3000
With Parsons continuing to sit on the sidelines, both Jefferson and Aminu remain in play. People are sort of on Aminu, though, and you've got to pay a premium to get him. Jefferson just got done playing the entire first quarter (and, admittedly, kind of sucking) against Portland, and all of that time on the court is just more likely to translate to production than not. We saw it in the New Orleans game, and I think a similar performance is plausible against Golden State. And really, at these prices, the floor in terms of his points per dollar performance is so high that it's hardly worth worrying about.
Jeff Green - FD 4600 DK 4800 DFSTR 4800
Blowout risk, etc etc. But again, Green had been paying 5x a game on these FanDuel prices against actual good teams, and now he has the Lakers. Just throwing this out there because it's a great spot for a GPP stack if you want to try and catch lightning in a bottle.
Also considered: Danilo Gallinari.
Nikola Mirotic - FD 4500 DK 5700 DFSTR 4100
Doug wrote this about Mirotic last night:
"If he isn't a >95% play on this slate then I will eat my sock. Though he's coming off the bench he is playing more than 30 minutes a game and has been massively productive. He is getting up a ton of shots and crashing the boards. Is firmly on everyone's radar so unless you just started playing DFS I doubt I'm telling you anything new here. The price hasn't come close to catching up. Not a situation I want to fade.
And he went out and put up 26 and 8 with 2 blocks against a good Thunder team. The Pacers are a tougher draw than the Thunder defensively down low, but this is just a case of the wrong price. I'll play Mirotic everywhere.
Derrick Favors - FD 7500 DK 7600 DFSTR 7100
Favors let a lot of daily fantasy basketball players down with his worst game in weeks against the Celtics, but I'm not worried in the least. While Philly has clawed back into respectability when it comes to defending opposing Power Forwards (just a bit below league average at present time), Favors had just gotten done abusing very tough front courts in Memphis and Milwaukee before his hiccup against the Cs. I'd say he's a favorite to get his full run of minutes in this one, and if he does, our projection system loves him against the Sixers.
Kenneth Faried - FD 6100 DK 5800 DFSTR 5600
Adios, Brian Shaw. Don't let the door hit ya where lord split ya. It's really nice seeing Faried be unleashed to his full potential, and I think the 37.5 fantasy points per game we've seen in his last two could be an indication of where this train is headed. I have him listed below the other two guys because I'm still the teensiest bit concerned that the minutes won't be as reliable as some other players, and there's obviously the risk that the Spurs dust them here. But still - Faried's max-energy game and new opportunity should give him the high floor of lots of boards, and presumably a lot of other bits to go with it.
Also considered: Keep an eye on Terrence Jones. There's the little back thing, but he's been positively fantastic recently and I wouldn't hesitate to plug him in against Detroit's overrated defensive front-court.
The spendy one: Anthony Davis, obv. If you can find a way to save elsewhere today, or have money to spend, he's a terrific play. I just like the cheaper guys better on a points per dollar basis, but I'd guess he's the best bet for a huge points per dollar game for a top tier salary investment.
Alex Len - FD 5000 DK 5600 DFSTR 4100
The Magic went small against the Suns, and Alex Len's minutes took a drastic reduction. I don't think there's any similar risk against the Nets. Lopez will almost certainly be manning the paint, and when he has, the Nets have allowed 5% more points and 4% more rebounds to opposing centers this season. Len is still cheap enough that there's a ton of upside here, and I think the floor is higher than it may seem after the catastrophic performance against the Magic.
Hassan Whiteside - FD 8700 DK 8800 DFSTR 6400
I'm not exactly what world I live on when a guy I'd barely heard of is now being listed as a recommended play for $8,700 on FanDuel against a tough opponent, but here we are. The guy has two 24 rebound games in his last three games. Did you read that? The upside here is simply absurd from night to night, and it's clear that the Heat are more comfortable playing him 33+ minutes a game than they were earlier this season.
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