Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

Doug Norrie

Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 4/1/15

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Point Guards

Russell Westbrook - FD 12700 DK 12700 DFSTR 9700
As long as the Thunder are in the playoff hunt and Russell is playing at a thousand miles an hour then he has to be on your radar going into any particular slate. His price is really close to the breaking point, but on a big slate where there should be a variety of value plays, getting his salary in good shouldn't be all that difficult. Rondo and company play at enough of a pace without defending the opposing point guard all that well.

Tyreke Evans - FD 7900 DK 7700 DFSTR
We all know about the Lakers and point guards. They play at such a frenetic pace that the opposing one handles the ball that much more in a given game. Plus Clarkson and Lin aren't exactly elite defenders. Evans is up and down and I don't know if I totally trust him for cash games, though he falls into that affordable upper tier coming in with a good matchup.

Zach LaVine - FD 5700 DK 5800 DFSTR 3700
Another game of no Rubio should mean another night of heavy minutes for Lavine and the rest of the Timberwolves. He can turn the ball over in bunches, but he also is virtually guaranteed to see all his minutes considering the state of the Wolves' roster. Still a value but beware a bad shooting night and he needs every minute he can get.

Greivis Vasquez - FD 4000 DK 4800 DFSTR 3800
If you are like me then you played him the other night and suffered through a miserable first half. He actually pulled it together late to just scrape under 5x on the night. Honestly, I'm willing to go right back to the well with him against the Wolves. Minnesota is brutal on defense and Greivis is getting the point guard run and he won't shoot 1-10 from the field every game. Buy low on him here and forget about last game which you need to do in DFS.

Strongly consider George Hill as well as Rajon Rondo if Monta were to sit again.


Shooting Guards

James Harden - FD 11500 DK 11300 DFSTR 9300
I don't plan on starting out each position with the highest salary player. But this one warrants it. Harden is facing a Kings' team that has serious defensive issues and will be playing somewhat shorthanded tonight. There is a chance Houston blows their doors off, though the Rockets have some injury concerns of their own. Beverley being injured has forced Harden into some big minutes of late as he takes over even more of the ball-handling duties. Always a threat for a monster game and tonight has a better chance than most.

Bradley Beal - FD 5600 DK 5900 DFSTR 5400
Haven't put him up in the picks for a while, but we've seen the price steadily drop and now he gets to face up against the Sixers. Philly's been shredded by the opposing shooting guard, allowing 11% more scoring and 15% more assists than league average to the position. Beal is still seeing a ton of minutes and though this game could get ugly, I think Beal sees enough run to pay it off.

DeMar DeRozan - FD 8000 DK 8000 DFSTR 7200
Lou Williams - FD 4900 DK 5100 DFSTR 5000
These two guys have the highest usage rates on Toronto when Lowry is out and it isn't particularly close. Derozan put up a monster line on Monday when he put up an insane 27 shots against the Rockets. That won't happen every night, but it does tell the tale of what the Raptors plan to do on offense. Meanwhile, I was hoping Sweet Lou would see a few more minutes off the bench with Lowry out of the picture. He is still coming in under 30 in terms of run, but still gets up 10+ shots per game. On this big slate he probably rates a little closer to a tournament play, but the price hasn't completely caught up to the usage bump he's seen with Lowry injured.

Small Forwards

Gordon Hayward - FD 8300 DK 8000 DFSTR 7000
I will say that this pick is in many ways contingent on Favors sitting out again. I have his usage bumped some to account for no Derrick and would knock him down some if the Jazz were at full strength. But Denver likes to get beast on by opposing small forwards to the tune of 7% more scoring and 13% more rebounds to the position. Over the last three games Hayward has averaged a 21/6/4 with some steals thrown in. Like him either way, but prefer if he is the primary scoring option.

Andrew Wiggins - FD 6700 DK 6600 DFSTR 5300
The Timberwolves still insist on making everyone a game time decision and then playing with about 8-9 guys. What it means is Wiggins goes out there an just plays 40 or so minutes every night. Not sure it would be how I ran a team, but whatever. At least they are oddly consistent when it comes to some of their guys. He ran a little cold from the field the last two games which has kept the game logs a bit lower. Coming at a very nice price considering he will play no matter the state of the game.

Omri Casspi - FD 3700 DK 3400 DFSTR 3500
If he draws the start for Rudy Gay tonight, and sees close to thirty minutes then he is a fantastic value play. I know Casspi's name is sacrilege in some circles because he's burned a lot of people a great many times. But if he cracks the starting five then I think you can take a chance on him considering he's coming in at around the minimums.

Robert Covington - FD 5100 DK 5100 DFSTR 5100
Cracked thirty minutes the last two games, though struggled with a subpar stat line last time thanks to some poor shooting. If he is starting again and if the Sixers report some scratches then I will feel a little safer with his run. But I'd check in on what Philly has in store for their rotations.

Definitely consider Trevor Ariza and Chase Budinger


Power Forwards

Some big question marks at this position that will hopefully be cleared up well before lineup lock.
Trevor Booker - FD 4000 DK 4400 DFSTR 3000
He's the top points per dollar player on the whole slate if Favors sits again. Booker is priced around the minimums and has been out there for around 33 minutes a game when Favors sits. That kind of run alone is well worth the price and if Favors sits again Booker will be in all of my lineups on every site.

Josh Smith - FD 7000 DK 6700 DFSTR 6400
Tried to single-handedly destroy my personal relationships on Monday as he turned in a Smoove-like shooting performance we had kind of forgotten about. Donatas is still out but Terrence Jones is questionable. If Jones were back I'd downgrade Smith a bunch. But if he's starting again then it's another case where I'd have a short memory and go right back to the guy. He's too talented at this price and in the starting unit to not seriously consider.

Jason Thompson - FD 3700 DK 3600 DFSTR 3700
Lives to foul opposing players. Can only assume he takes personal enjoyment from hacking the opposition considering how often he is in foul trouble. But if Boogie sits again, and with Gay out, I think you'd see Thompson play well over thirty minutes even if he is committing foul after foul.

Marvin Williams - FD 4600 DK 4700 DFSTR 3700
Like the guys above, he comes with a caveat. Cody Zeller needs to be sitting again.

If for some reason all of the guys above come together in a perfect storm of not projecting for minutes then I think you can consider spending all the way up for Anthony Davis though I like both Harden and Westbrook more in this tier. Also, if you they were back and not expected to have minutes restrictions then Favors and Terrence Jones are interesting.



Brook Lopez - FD 8200 DK 8000 DFSTR 6900
With the Nets making a playoff push they've said to hell with any kind of minutes restriction on Bro-Lo and played him for long, long stretches. If this were to continue tonight then he'd be in line to obliterate the sorry state of affairs the Knicks call interior defense. Lopez has been averaging about a 30/10 over the the last two weeks or so.

Jonas Valanciunas - FD 6200 DK 6000 DFSTR 5300
Gave him as a top play the other night and he responded with a 15/9 line along with 5 blocks. The minutes are a little bit of an issue for the guy especially because he doesn't play in crunch time for the Raptors. But the T-Wolves will be coming into this game with Justin Hamilton and little else on the interior. And Hamilton isn't exactly imposing. Look for Jonas to get going early.

Rudy Gobert - FD 8700 DK 8500 DFSTR 5800
Price is a little steep, but fronting the Nuggets is no thing as they allow 10% more scoring than league average to opposing centers. From a points per dollar perspective, I prefer the two guys above, but I wouldn't fault you for squeezing Gobert in there tonight.

Enes Kanter is still coming very reasonably priced and could be line for big minutes against the Mavs.
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5 Visitor Comments

  1. Why no John Wall for PG? because of blowout potential?

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