Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 4/10/15

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Pitcher

Early Slate
The pitching choices on this first slate of games is just terrible. The system is recommending the very cheapest guys as the best points/ $ plays but that more speaks to it not wanting you to play any pitchers rather than thinking the dudes going in Colorado say, are going to be good. Honestly, I don’t feel comfortable making a strong case for many of these guys. But here goes anyway.

Collin McHugh - FD 8100 DK 7000 DFSTR 8900
One of the only guys I can stomach from a peripherals point of view. McHugh put up strong strikeout numbers last season with a low 3’s xFIP. He didn’t walk many batters and just generally had a decent season. The Rangers were among the worst teams in the league against righty pitcher. System doesn’t adore him, but mostly thinks he is overpriced relative to upside.

If not, him then go cheap and hope for the best.

Late Slate
John Lackey - FD 7800 DK 7800 DFSTR 6100
He’s just kind of a regular guy at this point. Will never do anything too astounding, but rarely will totally meltdown and destroy you (any more). The Reds had only a .657 team wOBA against righties last season. I know Votto is back, but that doesn’t make up the difference to get them back to average. Decen cash game play as his price is fine enough to help you get some bigger bats in the lineup.

Jon Niese - FD 7800 DK 7500 DFSTR 6200
Now that Atlanta has traded away a good portion of their talent I think you can roll Niese out there. The hitters they do have (and there aren’t many) are better against righty pitching. Niese is like Lackey in that there isn’t a huge amount of upside but he can put up innings and not totally submarine you.

Gio Gonzalez - FD 9400 DK 9100 DFSTR 8500
I gave Strasburg yesterday even though our system told me not to. He got shellacked by the Mets. If the definition of crazy is doing the same thing over and over again while expecting a different result then you know how to refer to me. Gio faces a Phillies team that finished near the bottom of the league against lefty pitching while striking out 22% of the time. Gio can get wild, but because of the Nationals’ depth at pitching he is the best pure arm on the slate. Again, I’m bucking the system here but there’s a case for it.

 

Catcher

Early Slate
Michael McKenry - FD 2300 DK 4100 DFSTR 3100
Wilin Rosario - FD 3500 DK 5300 DFSTR 6400
One, or both, of these guys will play today (Rosario could get another start at first). But I think it’s a guarantee you see at least one of them in the lineup against the lefty Travis Wood. As will become a theme (if you are new to this), Coors Field is the place to be in MLB DFS. These guys both tag lefty pitching and Coors lets ball out of the ballpark like it has stock in the company.

Kurt Suzuki - FD 2300 DK 3700 DFSTR 5200
Another guy off to a slow start, but coming very cheap against a very weak pitcher. Hector Noesi got body-slammed by righty bats last year, allowing an OPS well over .800. That’s just dreadful. To boot, Suzuki heads to the plate in one of the better hitter’s parks in U.S. Cellular Field. The price is the major considering as obviously Suzuki doesn’t mash.

Welington Castillo - FD 2400 DK 4100 DFSTR 3100
Here’s to hoping he draws the start against the lefty in Coors. The Cubs have three catchers to this could be David Ross, but if it’s Wellington you are getting a guy who’s leaps and bounds better against lefty pitching with an .855 OPS last season on that side of the split. And yeah, Coors.

Late Slate

Jonathan Lucroy - FD 3500 DK 4600 DFSTR 7100
How many times will I write up Lucroy this season? I don’t want to put an over/under on it but judging by early season word count it might be a lot. He’s started the season real slow which has kept the price down, but faces another weaker arm in lefty Jeff Locke. Locke allowed a .342 wOBA to righty bats last season and Miller Park always helps bolster power numbers. Don’t be scared off by the early season slump, Lucroy is in a favorable matchup.

Consider Wilson Ramos

First Base

Early Slate
Jose Abreu - FD 4500 DK 5500 DFSTR 7700
While he ran a little hot last season especially in the HR/FB category you simply can’t put up the numbers Abreu did against lefties unless you are in a completely dominant split. He owned a 201 wRC+ that was among the best in the game against lefties and Tommy Milone could be in for some hurt considering the ballpark also won’t be doing him any favors.

Kennys Vargas - FD 2500 DK 3900 DFSTR 5400
Joe Mauer - FD DK 4300 DFSTR 6700
Vargas is especially adept at hitting righty pitcher as, for a switch hitter, he’s much better from the left side of the plate. The same splits can be said for Mauer and they both make cheaper options with upside against Hector Noesi. Check to see the Twins lineup before making these moves, but I like whoever is going to get at bats.

Consider Justin Smoak if he’s in the lineup

Late Slate
David Ortiz - FD 3700 DK 4900 DFSTR 7900
Wrote him up for Wednesday but he ended up sitting out in that game against Philly. But he’ll be in the lineup tonight in Yankee Stadium. The Bronx has the short porch in right and only Coors Field allows more power to lefty hitters than Yankee Stadium. This is such a great spot for Ortiz against Nathan Eovaldi and the former’s patience and power make him a great cash game play with upside.

Joey Votto - FD 3700 DK 4600 DFSTR 7300
On a bigger slate it’s tough to target hitters unless they are facing bottom-feeding pitchers, but Votto can be made a slight exception. He’s a safer play because of the patience and he does have the power upside. Wish he wasn’t facing Lackey, but our system is liking the value.

Consider Yonder Alonso

 

Second Base

Second base is just brutal today on both slates.
Early Slate
Jose Altuve - FD 4100 DK 4800 DFSTR 7700
Brian Dozier - FD 3300 DK 5200 DFSTR 6700
I’m putting these two guys together for the early slate because while they are intriguing plays who offer the highest raw point totals, there is reason to think your money isn’t getting in great. Altuve is on the right side of his split, but he costs so much that it will be tough to make any plays for guys in Coors. While Dozier faces a bad pitcher in Noesi but on the wrong side of the split. I get that it is weird to lead off with such lukewarm-ness, but I do think these guys are at least worth mentioning.

Late Slate
On the later slate I think you are going to just want to go super cheap with guys like:
Omar Infante
Alberto Callaspo
Rickie Weeks

 

Shortstop

Early Slate
Troy Tulowitzki - FD 5100 DK 7000 DFSTR 9000
His price is nearly out of bounds at a whopping $5100 on FanDuel and $7000 on DraftKings. But can you blame these sites? Last season Tulo put up an ungodly .556 wOBA and 1.348 OPS in that side of the split. And his career numbers pretty much back up this kind of production. Can you pay for him? You can sure try. It’s going to cost, but there are few players that can put up these kind of numbers and the ballpark obviously gives a huge boost.

Jose Reyes - FD 3700 DK 4700 DFSTR 7800
It’s going to be tough getting Tulo’s salary in there tonight but I think Reyes makes a suitable, points per dollar alternative. He’s better against right-handed pitching and has a good (not great) matchup against Bud Norris. Should be some runs in this game as Camden Yards does boost power to all sides. If you aren’t going to pay for Troy on the early slate, Reyes is definitely the way to go.

Late Slate
On the late slate you are stuck much in the way of second base. Again go cheaper with plays like Asdrubal Cabrera and Andrelton Simmons

Third Base

Early Slate
Nolan Arenado - FD 4300 DK 5700 DFSTR 7100
He has the highest projection for any third baseman by a fair amount, but the price is definitely early season and Coors-corrected. Arenado crushes lefty pitching in a big way, putting up an OPS close to 1.000 in that split last season. And we’ve been through Travis Wood’s righty bat struggles. Going to be tough to put him and Tulo in the same lineup together, but if you punt pitching a bit there is big upside.

Manny Machado - FD 2900 DK 4500 DFSTR 5700
I’ve got no love for Mark Buehrle. He’s got an xFIP over four against righty batters last season and has just an impossible time striking them out. Machado’s a platoon neutral guy for his career and the lineup should be able to do some damage today with Buehrle on the mound.

Consider Trevor Plouffe

Late Slate
Pablo Sandoval - FD 3000 DK 4200 DFSTR 6100
As I said for Big Papi, Yankee Stadium does wonders for the lefty bats. It really is a band box and we’ve now watched for years as seemingly innocent fly balls turn into scraped out home runs while big shots end up looking like total bombs. Nathan Eovaldi was fine enough when he threw in a pitcher’s park in Miami. This is a totally different scenario for the dude. I’m targeting lefties as much as possible in the Bronx.

David Wright - FD 3300 DK 5100 DFSTR 6200
Been a lefty killer for his career and last season was no different. Wright put up a .921 OPS to go with a .398 wOBA against lefties. He crushes this split and Eric Stults is just garbage-y. His xFIP is above four and he doesn’t strike out righty batters. Only the ballpark has Wright lower than Sandoval, but it isn’t by much.

Aramis Ramirez - FD 3200 DK 4200 DFSTR 6500
This position is loaded on the later slate. Going to be a tough call between these three guys with Aramis facing Locke. I have the edge to Sandoval, but could make almost equal cases for all three.

Outfield

Early Slate
Dexter Fowler - FD 3100 DK 5400 DFSTR 6800
Wish there was more to love about the Cubs on this slate, but a guy like Fowler will have to do. He hit lefty pitching real well while in Houston last season with a .392 wOBA and 155 wRC+. That tells a nice tale for him going into this game in Coors against Matzek. Really like him as a cheaper cash game play.

Melky Cabrera - FD 2900 DK 4800 DFSTR 6700
Good enough against lefties to give him a run out there against Tommy Milone. Melky doesn’t do any one thing great, but he isn’t terrible in any aspect of the offensive game either. Like Fowler he sits in a nice price range in a great hitter’s park against a weaker pitcher.

On this earlier slate I’d also consider guys like:
Adam Eaton
Mitch Moreland
Shin-Soo Choo

Late Slate
Yasiel Puig - FD 4000 DK 4800 DFSTR 7100
Chase Anderson got just tagged by righty bats last season, allowing an OPS over .800 to that split. That’s gross for a pitcher and could really be an issue facing a guy like Puig who put up an OPS over .900 against righties along with a 157 wRC+. One of the better high-priced plays on this later slate of games.

Khris Davis - FD 2600 DK 4500 DFSTR 6600
Rates out near the top of the slate in terms of points per dollat. He’s coming very cheap in a hitter’s ballpark against the lefty Locke. I really like the price and he’s above average agaisnt lefties.

Michael Cuddyer - FD 2900 DK 4900 DFSTR 7000
His insane splits come a great deal from Coors Field, but this is a guy who has historically hit lefties very well. I’m willing to keep playing him outside the confines of the ballpark equivalent of the moon because I don’t believe in Eric Stults at all.

A.J. Pollock - FD 3100 DK 4500 DFSTR 6700
Think he makes a very sneaky value play against Brett Anderson. Had a nice time in a small sample size against lefty pitching last season and the ballpark really boosts offense.

Consider Shane Victorino

 

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