Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 4/9/15

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Pitcher

Stephen Strasburg - FD 10500 DK 10500 DFSTR 9400
I definitely thought our system would be all over Strasburg today. It was so high on him last season and I felt like I was writing the guy up every single start. And now he’s playing the Mets and bam! not much to love. I’m writing him up here because in spite of the alogrithm’s projection, I’m still high on the guy. He faces a weaker hitting Mets’ squad though he does have to content against Matt Harvey on the wins side.

A.J. Burnett - FD 7400 DK 8000
Trevor Bauer - FD 7400 DK 7200 DFSTR 6400
In our system these two guys rate out near the top in terms of points per dollar. Now keep in mind that there are many a bad pitcher going today and two of the better ones in Harvey and Strasburg actually face each other. So we get caught somewhere in between when it comes to finding value on the mound. Both Bauer and Burnett have similar strengths and weaknesses. They can get K’s when needed but also hand out a ton of walks which effects their abilities to go later into games. It also just allows a ton of unneccessary runners which can cascade. Both have xFIPs in the low fours, both are very slight favorites for the win and both face offenses that were among the worst in baseball against righty pitching last season.

CC Sabathia - FD 7600 DK 8700 DFSTR 6300
CC had a crazy year in 2014. It depends what numbers you peep to determine how successful (or not so much) he was in that campaign. On the one hand there was the 5.28 ERA. But his xFIP was a full two runs below at 3.11. Granted it was only eight starts before the being injured, but his peripherals were also nails as he was striking out more than a batter an inning and walking less than two. Reports are his velocity is a little better this season and the price is low. The epic downside here is facing the Blue Jays and three of the best versus lefties splits in Bautista, Donaldson and Encarnacion. So take this for what it’s worth on a day pitching value is tough to come by.

Kendall Graveman - FD 5000 DK 5100 DFSTR 6200
Welcome to MLB DFS where on day four of the baseball season we are considering guys like Kendall Graveman. So it goes, but there are reasons to think this is an interesting pick. He is a -140 favorite today against the Rangers and brings some decent minor league peripherals into the game. He isn’t a big K guy, but at his prices, doesn’t really need to be. He’s coming in near or at the minimums for a pitcher and that kind of price point makes him a solid tournament play in my estimation.

Consider Ian Kennedy

 

Catcher

Victor Martinez - FD 4200 DK 4500 DFSTR 7600
We spent a lot of time picking on Kyle Gibson last season, as the dude seemed to hate the very essence of striking anyone out. Dude just refused, K-ing less than six batters per nine. But he generated a ton of groundballs so he got let off the hook some. I’m back to targeting some hitters against him today, especially a contact guy like V-Mart. Martinez is almost assured of getting the ball in play today and I like the price against Gibson.

Salvador Perez - FD 3400 DK 3800 DFSTR 5700
Like I said yesterday, Perez had a miserable season against lefties in 2014 but I think he’s a target against John Danks today. Danks is platoo neutral in that he is average to below average against both hands. I’m not so concerned with Perez’s struggles last season because the career numbers are definitely there. But it does give me just a little pause.

On the evening slate you can consider Russell Martin

First Base

Carlos Santana - FD 3400 DK 4300 DFSTR 6800
Asher Wojciechowski wasn’t a particularly good minor league pitcher so there aren’t many reasons to suspect he’ll leap into the majors with lights out stuff. Santana was good against righty pitching last season with a .340 wOBA and 121 wRC+. This is a game the Indians could up some runs considering the weak mound presence.

Joey Votto - FD 3600 DK 4600
Had a lost season last year, but should be back healthy at least for now. When he’s on he’s among the best hitters in the game. The big power numbers might be a thing of the past, but this is a guy who’s only a season removed from an OPS over .900. Draws a ton of walks which should serve him well against a guy like Burnett.

Ike Davis - FD 2600 DK 3600
Stephen Vogt - FD 2700 DK 3600 DFSTR 5400
Had both of these guys as plays last night and am more than willing to roll it back again tonight. Don’t love the ballpark for hitters, but do love that they are facing Nick Martinez, he of the 5.24 xFIP last season. A guy who couldn’t muster the stuff to strike out more than five batters per inning. Both of these guys hit righties so well and you know the A’s play the matchups.

 

Second Base

Ben Zobrist - FD 3200 DK 4100 DFSTR 6600
Eric Sogard - FD 2500 DK 3100 DFSTR 4500
How bad is Nick Martinez? So bad that I’ll take every A’s lefty I can get my hands on. Last season lefties put up an OPS over .800 against Martinez over 77 innings which is a fine enough sample size to consider him somewhat akin to a batting practice pitcher. A’s stacks could be in the making on this early slate.

Chase Utley - FD 3500 DK 4100 DFSTR 6800
If Justin Masterson was in control of the MLB rules committee I suspect his first order of business would be to eliminate lefty batters from all major league teams. Dude allowed an OPS over .900 to lefty bats last season. For a starter (and really for anyone) this is an insane number. Lefties just destroy him. Utley against Masterson in a hitter’s park has upside written all over it.

Dustin Pedroia - FD 3700 DK 4000 DFSTR 6500
I really prefer playing him against lefties but David Buchanan is a reverse splits guy so we meet somewhere in the middle. Pedroia looks over his wrist issues from last season and he’s put up a .348 wOBA for his career against righties, so while on the wrong side of the split, he isn’t an extreme guy.

Consider Omar Infante

 

Shortstop

Jed Lowrie - FD 2500 DK 3700 DFSTR 5300
Coming very cheap at a position that I often would just assume skip when Tulo isn’t playing (and even then he’s too expensive and I want to skip). Lowrie is just above average against righty pitching and Trevor Bauer is just about average as a pitcher. The latter can dial up the K’s, but the walks as well. This is mostly a price consideration as he won’t break the bank for you and has a somewhat favorable matchup.

The theme today at shortstop is to spend next to nothing on it and move on. Some guys I’ll be looking at for this strategy would be (and keep in mind that these guys aren’t very good but spending up for, say, Reyes, isn’t in the cards for me):
Freddy Galvis
Jose Ramirez
Alcides Escobar
Marcus Semien

Third Base

Pablo Sandoval - FD 3000 DK 4300 DFSTR 6000
Had the Big Panda as a play yesterday and am going right back to him today. While David Buchanan is worse against righties for his career, Panda more than makes up with it by hitting righty pitching very well. Last season his .824 OPS in that split got the job done while, remember, hitting in some of the the most pitcher-friendly parks in baseball.

Josh Harrison - FD 3500 DK 4300
Anthony DeSclafani wasn’t horrendous from a walks and k’s standpoint last season, but Harrison hit righty pitching so well that getting him at the top of the order in this game has its upside. His better-than-.800 OPS against righties last season makes me comfortable taking him in the righty-righty matchup.

Luis Valbuena - FD 2700 DK 3800 DFSTR 5400
He’s interesting as long as he’s hitting in the heart of the Astros’ lineup. Valbuena might be a little underrated considering some of his numbers. Last season against righty handed pitching Luis turned in a .355 wOBA and 124 wRC+ in that split. For his prices and slot in the order that makes him a very solid value play.

Consider Brett Lawrie

Outfield

Jose Bautista - FD 4600 DK 5000 DFSTR 8300
Haven’t talked at all about him this season but now’s as good a time as any to remind people what he did against lefty pitching last season. Joey Bats put up an absurd .461 wOBA to go with an OPS well over 1.000 in that split. Sabathia wasn’t nearly as bad as his over 5 ERA would suggest, but Bautista’s splits just can’t be ignored, especially in Yankee Stadium.

Michael Brantley - FD 4100 DK 4600 DFSTR 7400
A little costly, but there are few guys in the game who hit righty pitching like Brantley. He turned in a wOBA over .400 last season with a .923 OPS in that side of the split. Faces a rookie pitcher in Wojciechowski in a solid hitter’s park.

Melky Cabrera - FD 3000 DK 4200 DFSTR 6700
Adam Eaton - FD 3000 DK 3900 DFSTR 6300
Both make interesting plays against Edinson Volquez today. Neither will break the bank for you, both hit at the top of the order and stacking them together in this game could be a strategy. Neither has significant power numbers which probably limits their overall upside, but I like the pitching matchup and both are in the right side of their splits.

Sam Fuld - FD 2800 DK 3500 DFSTR 5600
He’s a solid cash game play as long as he’s hitting leadoff for the A’s. Fuld faces Nick Martinez and we’ve already been over in detail why that is a positive matchup to target. Price hasn’t caught up with Sam considering where he’s hitting in the lineup.

Consider Mookie Betts

 

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