Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 4/12/15

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Pitcher

Max Scherzer - FD 11000 DK 12100
Of the big money pitchers, he's the only one I'm really considering. Though the Phillies got frisky last night, they aren't a good ball club and the Nationals (even with a depleted roster right now) should be in line for the win against Sean O'Sullivan. There's a reason the Nats paid Scherzer a gajillion dollars in the off season. He strikes out batters in bunches, limits the walks and can go deeper into games.

Tyson Ross - FD 8600 DK 9500 DFSTR 7100
Ross was pitching decently until he let up a couple of runs in the sixth against the Dodgers and was yanked after only 90 pitches. I am putting him up against as one of the top pitching plays on the slate for the money. Ross has solid swing and miss stuff, striking out about a batter an inning last year to go with a low 3's xFIP. His issue is the walks as he allows too many free passes which can limit his innings pitched. Good park today in Petco against a middling offense in the Giants.

Phil Hughes - FD 8400 DK 7900 DFSTR 3100
Hughes is obviously a completely different pitcher at this point in his career. Dude walked nobody last season, averaging less than one free pass per nine innings which is just insane. What keeps him from the top of the list today is that he's pitching in one of the best hitter's parks in baseball and Hughes is a flyball pitcher. So while the peripherals are just magnificent, I am worried about him getting burned by some home runs.

Carlos Martinez - FD 7300 DK 6900
The Reds simply aren't a good offense and I do like targeting pitchers against a weaker squad. Great American Ballpark is a hitter's stadium so that has to be considered, but Martinez is in a solid spot for a win here considering the matchup and competition. Carlos can obviously dial up K's in the right situation, though you will want to keep an ear out if he'll be on a lower pitch count.

Nathan Karns - FD 6000 DK 5700
He was brutalized early against the Orioles in the second game of the season. But one game does not a career make and this is a guy who posted real solid strikeout numbers in the minors. Love the ballpark in Miami for him as it depresses power (except to Giancarlo) and he is coming so very cheap. Definitely a risky GPP play but can real break the bank for you as there is some K upside.

Note: It's hard to make cases for some of the bigger money pitchers on this slate. Tanaka has some arm issues, Greiou are nke is a little too expensive, Sale is on a pitch count, and I don't think you are getting good money in on King Felix at those prices.

 

Catcher

Victor Martinez - FD 4100 DK 5000 DFSTR 7600
There is some concern that he won't play today, but if he does then feel free to get him in your lineups even at this big price tag. For a switch hitter, V-Mart is slightly better against lefties for his career and was huge against them last season with a 211 wRC+ in that split. T.J. House is a below average pitcher and I can see a righty dominant Tiger squad feasting on him.

Jonathan Lucroy - FD 3500 DK 4700 DFSTR 7100
Another day, another day of writing up Lucroy. Look, I know if you've been playing him on my recs then you are probably less than pleased. He's been bad, though that doesn't mean he doesn't rate as a play. He's obviously not a sub .100 hitter and though I'm not using a gambler's fallacy of considering him "due". That's not how we roll. But we do know Lucroy can hit righties, is working in a great park and face Casey Sadler who you've never heard of for a reason.

Wilson Ramos - FD 3000 DK 4100 DFSTR 5500
Sean O'Sullivan keeps bouncing around teams and levels for a reason: because he stinks. The xFIP is over 5 for his career, in a not-too-small sample size. Ramos is much better against lefties, but there are times and prices when you can take someone on the wrong side of the split. This seems like one of them.

Consider Yadier Molina

First Base

Miguel Cabrera - FD 4800 DK 5300 DFSTR 8100
Going to see some Tigers on this list today, especially the righties because T.J. House struggles mightily with this batting hand. Last year, in a "down" year, Miggy tagged lefty pitching for a .900 OPS and .382 wOBA. He's put together a couple of multi-hit games in a row and is obviously one of the best hitters in baseball. Very expensive which is the only thing keeping his points/$ numbers down.

Ryan Zimmerman - FD 3500 DK 4900 DFSTR 6900
Better, for his career, against lefties but adequate on the right side of the split. Zimmerman has a career .805 OPS against righties. The big thing today is that there has been a lot of price correction on the superstars and guys rolling in Coors. You are going to need to find some middle tier value and Zimmerman rates out high in our system against O'Sullivan.

Jose Abreu - FD 4300 DK 5400 DFSTR 7700
Adam LaRoche - FD 3000 DK 3900
Phil Hughes is a fly ball pitcher going in an extreme hitter's park. There is something to like in tournaments from these two guys if you are chasing the long ball.

 

Second Base

Ian Kinsler - FD 4300 DK 4500
Though he was a little down last season, Kinsler is dude who's historically done very well against lefty pitching. For his career Kinsler owns a .382 wOBA with an .884 OPS in that side of the split. T.J. House was hammered by righty bats last season, allowing an OPS over .800. That's a terrible number for anyone, especially a starting pitcher. All over some of these Tiger righty bats today and Kinsler seems a safer cash game play from the top of the order.

After Kinsler I'll be looking at some cheaper options like:
Alberto Callaspo
Omar Infante and
Scooter Gennett if he can get into the top of the lineup

 

Shortstop

Jhonny Peralta - FD 2800 DK 4600 DFSTR 5700
As always shortstop is rough if you aren't going to pay up for Tulo and I don't think I'm doing it today. Peralta falls in that middle tier (along with some other interesting Cardinals) and has the advantage of hitting in and around the middle of the order. Good matchup against Iglesias and though he's better against lefties, he's more than serviceable against righty pitchers.

Jed Lowrie - FD 2800 DK 3800 DFSTR 5500
Lowrie isn't as good when he bats from the left side, but lefties had a wOBA of .404 at Arlington last season. Lewis had a decent first start but it was on the road at offense-sapping Oakland. Lewis is a guy we like to target as he has a tendency to get blown up if the stuff isn't there. Am not over the moon about Lowrie but he's inexpensive for a middle of the order shortstop.

Elvis Andrus - FD 3100 DK 4200 DFSTR 5800
Andrus must be the only player who doesn't play significantly better in Texas which is reflected in his virtually identical OPS (.673 vs. .684) and a wRC+ of 76 for his career at home. But his overall OPS against the lefthanders of .760 last season looks pretty darn good for shortstop at this price and Keuchel's xFIP was almost a run higher vs. righthanded batters (3.41).

Third Base

Adrian Beltre - FD 3900 DK 4900 DFSTR 7600
Just about every time he is facing a lefty (and the price is in the realm of normal) you will be treated to a write up about Beltre. He has crushed lefty pitching for his career with last season just adding more fuel to the fire. His OPS was near 1.000 in that split with a 170 wRC+. Dallas Keuchel doesn't pose much of a threat and if you decide to go cheaper at pitching then he gets you in a good spot.

Luis Valbuena - FD 2500 DK 3800 DFSTR 5600
Though he's not an elite hitter, he does hit in the middle of the lineup and there is a great deal of value in that placement. He faces a below average pitcher in Colby Lewis and the Ballpark in Arlington, as always, helps a great deal. Valbuena had an OPS over .800 against righties last season with a .355 wOBA. More than adequate for his prices.

Consider: Pablo Sandoval if you think Tanaka is just a different pitcher. Also, if Yangervis Solarte is going to keep batting second then he is a nice punt play.

Outfield

Jason Heyward - FD 3500 DK 5200 DFSTR 6900
Matt Holliday - FD 3500 DK 5000 DFSTR 7200
Heyward is an extreme splits guy and can only really hit righty pitching. He has a .366 wOBA and 132 wRC+ in that split for his career. Facing Iglesias today gives him a great matchup and he makes one of the top value plays on the slate. Meanwhile Holliday is right there as well. Splits aren't as great but they are going in a great hitter's park. Both are coming cheap on a day when a lot of other prices are inflated and allows some other roster flexibility.

Rajai Davis - FD 3100 DK 4600 DFSTR 3100
He stands to hit leadoff against lefties and in the Tiger lineup that is an incredibly advantageous place to be. Hitting in front Kinsler, Miggy and V-Mart will put you in position to score some runs. He had a fantastic season against lefties in '14 with an OPS well over .900. Love the price and the batting order slot.

Khris Davis - FD 2700 DK 4700 DFSTR 6600
Ryan Braun - FD 3900 DK 5200 DFSTR 6800
I will be stacking some Brewers today against a middling Triple A pitcher like Casey Sadler. Both Braun and Davis are better against lefties, but it's always a good spot to target players against weaker, unproven arms. This is one of those cases and they have the ballpark to help as well.

Strongly consider Carl Crawford, Michael Cuddyer and Bryce Harper

 

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