Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 4/13/15
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Jacob deGrom - FD 8900 DK 9000 DFSTR 8100
As we saw yesterday, the Phillies are willing (read: forced) to send out some pretty terrible looking lineups on a day-to-day basis. It's because they stink. Scherzer didn't get the win yesterday but it wasn't for lack of effort as he struck out eight batters over six innings. deGrom could be in for a similar line today. He's coming off a stellar year in which his low 3's xFIP and more than a K an inning helped win him rookie honors. His first start of the year was a fine enough outing against the Nationals. He's a favorite against Harang today and should be in line for a win.
Danny Duffy - FD 7500 DK 7200 DFSTR 6900
It's pretty much deGrom or bust for me on this slate, but I could see throwing Duffy out on the cheap in a few spots. He got beat around in the first game, but also struck out a batter an inning and got a little unlucky with some of the White Sox hits. This is to say, it wasn't as bad as it seems. The Twins don't have much in the way of power (though I will be recommending some of them today). Duffy has some upside at these prices.
Jon Lester - FD 10100 DK 9300 DFSTR 8900
One game does not a season make. And that's good news for Lester whose first start in a Cubs' uniform was less than ideal. He'll look to rebound today against a Reds team that ranked near the bottom of the league against lefties last season. They have very little pop from that side of the split and we know what Lester can do when he starts rolling. He put up nearly a 5:1 K:BB ratio last season with a 3.10 xFIP. He's the cash game play on the late slate.
Shelby Miller - FD 8200 DK 7100 DFSTR 7100
In his first start of the season he pitched adequately against the Marlins, not allowing any runs through five innings. He wasn't dominant but as long as he can keep the strikeout numbers just a bit up and limit the walks he could prove a decent play. The Marlins strike out a fair bit against righties and Miller just needs to push six innings to sniff value here.
Consider Mat Latos in GPPs as everyone will be off him after the first start and that could be a total anomaly.
Salvador Perez - FD 3600 DK 3900 DFSTR 5700
He's started off the year in a big way with three home runs already and seems over whatever was hampering him last season. Of course our system doesn't really account for this early season run hot, liking him on previous merit alone. But it's nice to have the narrative behind him. Going to see a bunch of his teammates on the list today, so prepare yourself.
Travis d'Arnaud - FD 3000 DK 3700 DFSTR 5000
Our system likes Travis today against Harang. d'Arnuad was fine enough against righties last season with a .317 wOBA and OPS over .700. These numbers are pretty good for any catcher not named Posey and a few others. For the most part we are looking for value around the margins at this position and Travis is coming cheap across the board.
Catcher on the late slate is very difficult. The guys our system likes have pretty tough matchups, or are near the top of the list basically by default.
Russell Martin - FD 3000 DK 4400 DFSTR 6100
I don't love the matchup against Odorizzi because of the K stuff, but Russell hammered righty pitching last season with a .382 wOBA and .865 OPS. Is playing in a fantastic hitter's park in the Rogers Centre which boosts some of the power expectation. The low price makes up for the not-so-ideal matchup.
Eric Hosmer - FD 3700 DK 4200 DFSTR 6300
Kendrys Morales - FD 3000 DK 4000 DFSTR 4800
I hate the ballpark, but there are some pretty good pitchers going on this slate so we want to actively avoid some live arms. Trevor May is just the guy to target. May got a little unlucky with Babip last year, but that wouldn't explain all the suck. He allowed nearly a .900 OPS to lefties last season. Neither Morales or Hosmer are big power guys, but are above average against righty pitching and May is one of the worst on the slate. Again, the ballpark in Minnesota tempers the power numbers some, but they should have the ball in play.
Albert Pujols - FD 3800 DK 5400 DFSTR 8000
He's a great play on this slate. Nearly a must considering the price on FanDuel. Pujols had a down year against lefties in 2014 though some of that could be attributed to a .255 Babip that was significantly below his career averages. Of course he isn't the Albert Pujols of old, but at these prices he can still get the job done against a guy like Ross Detwiler who's been tagged by righty hitters for his career.
Consider C.J. Cron as a cheap play with power upside.
Brian Dozier - FD 3300 DK 4400 DFSTR 6400
I'll try not to recommend a ton of Twins because I understand that, as a team, they really aren't that good. Though it's worth noting that Dozier is significantly better over his career against lefty pitching. He owns a .369 wOBA and .852 OPS over that term and makes a good fantasy play because he offers the power/speed combination you don't see too much of anymore. Good spot against Duffy today.
Daniel Murphy - FD 3000 DK 4100 DFSTR 3100
Aaron Harang came out of the box firing in his first game against the Red Sox. But I'm not totally buying it. He's a dude with a track record of getting lit up and Murphy is a contact hitter I like to use in cash games because of his higher floor. Will rarely put together a monster, but chips in with points here and there.
Consider Joe Panik
Ben Zobrist - FD 3200 DK 4400 DFSTR 6800
Eric Sogard - FD 2300 DK 3200 DFSTR 4600
Scott Feldman is a lo w K pitcher who also doesn't mind walking a guy here and there. But the big story is how little he gets down on strikes, K-ing less than six batters per nine. Neither Zobrist nor Sogard are big boppers, but if they are hitting near the top or heart of the order then I like the at bat potential at their respective prices. Solid hitter's park that boosts power slightly to lefty hitters.
Jose Altuve - FD 4000 DK 4400 DFSTR 7400
Is in play pretty much every time he faces a lefty though is knocked down a little here because of the prices. He's nearly impossible for lefties to strike out and put up a (Babip-fueled, but still) 1.018 OPS against lefties last season. Kazmir isn't a pushover, but Altuve is just that good on this side of the split.
Alcides Escobar - FD 3100 DK 4200 DFSTR 5800
The Babip was a little high but this is a guy who still put up a high .700's OPS and 119 wRC+ against lefties last season. For like real players this is merely ok. For min-priced shortstops, this is like Ruth-ian. Escobar will cost you nothing. Hit leadoff yesterday and if that's going to continue then I will easily play him in cash games in the matchup against May.
Consider Eduardo Escobar as another cheap option. I'm not spending much at this position today.
Asdrubal Cabrera - FD 2700 DK 3900 DFSTR 5900
He continues to hit third in the order against righty hitters and you really can't say that about any other shortstop except Tulo. Of course Asdrubal is Troy, but the batting order placement makes for a great deal of his value considering the prices. He makes decent contact and R.A. Dickey is only striking out about seven batters per nine while also walking more than three. Cabrera isn't great, but he doesn't need to be at these salaries hitting in the heart of the order.
Consider Erick Aybar
Pablo Sandoval - FD 3000 DK 4500 DFSTR 6000
It hasn't been all candy and donuts for Sandoval to start the season, but the he's strung some hits together here and there. No power numbers, but the contact is alive. Don't love playing guys against some of the better pitchers on the slate like Zimmermann, but our projection system is really liking his value on this slate.
Trevor Plouffe - FD 2600 Mike Moustakas - FD 2900 DK 3600 DFSTR 5000er_id=128&aff_id=33414"rel="no follow">DK 4000 DFSTR 5500
Because I'm recommending every single other guy from this game, why the hell not? Both rate out near the top of our points/$ projections mostly because of the matchup and the very low prices on both. Moustakas has come out of the gate well and Plouffe is a better hitter against lefties for his career.
Brett Lawrie - FD 2700 DK 3800 DFSTR 6000
Yangervis Solarte - FD 2300 DK 3000 DFSTR 3100
It's a tough sell spending up for any of the big boys at third on this slate mostly because they are all in either real bad pitching matchups or hitting on the wrong side of their splits (or both). Both Lawrie and Solarte work nicely into lineups with limited downside considering the matchups and where they've been hitting in the order. If Solarte continues to hit second you really like the extra at bats he pulls and Lawrie has been able to get the bat on the ball early. This is another spot where I'm fine going cheaper and just moving on with my fantastic life.
Notice a theme today? It isn't by accident. We need to take a look at the worst pitchers and go after them. I know I sound like a super smart broken record here, but it's simply the case on this slate. Gordon was solid against right handed pitching last season with a 121 wRC+ and his pretty even platoon splits make it hard to matchup him to death late game. That last piece is an important consideration in DFS where a guy might have a great split against the starter but it could get very tough in the late innings.
Norichika Aoki - FD 3200 DK 3600 DFSTR 6200
Hitting at the top of the order for the Giants and he's started off the season in a real nice way. Won't do anything for you in the power department, but he does get on base. That's a good thing against a guy like Eddie Butler who has a propensity for walking the ballpark a few times around. Aoki's value comes from the spot in the order and pitching matchup.
Strongly consider Torii Hunter and Mookie Betts
Mike Trout - FD 5000 DK 6600 DFSTR 9200
He's a big money play today (everyday) but there is a lot to like about the matchup. With saving so much in some other spots in the infield that I think you can get him into lineups. He was worse against lefties last season, but that is a relative term as he still went for an OPS over .900 and and a wOBA close to .400. Dude, it's Trout and while I think he is often too expensive to consider today I think there is an exception against Detwiler.
Mitch Moreland - FD 2400 DK 3900 DFSTR 5300
The kind of guy that helps you afford a guy like Trout. Hitting slightly above average for his career against righties with a .334 wOBA, Moreland has the ballpark and the matchup against Matt Shoemaker in his favor. He is playing against righties for the Rangers and hitting just below the heart of the order.