Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 4/13/15
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Tonight's the craziest slate I've ever written. Whole teams are sitting, and minutes across the league are utterly in doubt. If you want to get more precise projections, our projection system is about as up to date as I can get it, and you can grab a free three day trial that will bring you over to MLB season as well. On to the picks!
D.J. Augustin - FD 4000 DK 3400 DFSTR 3800
Westbrook took 43 shots last night (the most by any player since Kobe's 81 point game) en route to a ridiculous 54/9/8 game. He'd be the easiest play of all time against Portland tonight except... he also got awarded his 16th technical foul of the season, which will likely cause him to miss Monday's game (and summarily kill OKC's playoff run, if it's not dead already). The league could overturn the tech, though, and if so, Westbrook is the easiest play ever. If he doesn't play, though, Augustin becomes the top play on the board. He'll have the ball in his hands nearly all game as the Thunder fight for their lives.
Goran Dragic - FD 6400 DK 6800 DFSTR 5600
The Heat are not yet mathematically eliminated, which means Dragic should be scheduled for 35 or so minutes against an Orlando team that has allowed 2% more scoring, 5% more rebounding, and 9% more assists than league average to opposing point guards. Elfrid Payton shows flashes on D, but he's still inexperienced, and his gambling has allowed for opposing PGs to have some monster games. Love him here.
Tyreke Evans - FD 7900 DK 7700 DFSTR 6500
The Pelicans lost on Sunday night, which means that they've got to win on Monday against the Wolves. They'll win. And it should mean that Evans plays his full set of high 30s minutes. With the uncertainty swirling tonight, you have to take security where you can get it. You'll be able to play punts wherever you want them, and if you want a guy who's going to play with max effort in a must win. LaVine has been playing well (and is a fine fantasy play in its own right), but defense isn't his strong suit. Grab Evans, and ring the cash register.
Beno Udrih - FD 3700 DK 3400 DFSTR 3100
Ray McCallum - FD 5200 DK 4800 DFSTR 3200
Dwight Buycks - FD 3500 DK 3300 DFSTR 3000
There is just a pile of punt guys you can play here. Our projection system likes all of these guys.
C.J. McCollum - FD 4700 DK 4500 DFSTR 3000
Dion Waiters - FD 4900 DK 5000 DFSTR 4100
Ceej just put up 43 fantasy points against the Jazz, and with Afflalo and Matthews both out, there's really no one else to take the shooting guard reps. Dion Waiters just isn't a guy who's going to chase McCollum around the perimeter all game, and A+ defenders are really the main threat to a guy like CJ. Waiters will be out there for 40 minutes easily this game, and if Westbrook misses it, vault him leaps even above McCollum. Either way, a stack in this game is fantastic.
Dwyane Wade - FD 6800 DK 7200 DFSTR 7000
With the Heat not yet mathematically eliminated, this will probably be Wade's last game of the season (unless a miracle happens). Wade just put up 30/6/5 against Toronto, and while Oladipo is a much tougher defensive match-up, it's hard to believe Wade will leave anything on the table in this game. Again, you might have trouble spending the money tonight, so here's a spot where you could get some in.
Jabari Brown - FD 3800 DK 4000 DFSTR 3000
Jabari showed his ceiling against the the Timberwolves, and with Lin officially done for the season, it's hard to imagining him not getting his minutes once again against the Kings. He's not a great player in real life, but this is an easy price and opportunity mismatch.
Also considered: Kevin Martin
Omri Casspi - FD 4600 DK 5200 DFSTR
Casspi now has two incredible games in the starting lineup, and with Gay & Boogie done for the season, I suspect Casspi will be inappropriately priced from here on out. The Lakers have allowed 4% more points and 9% more assists than league average to opposing small forwards. He'll have all the shots he wants, and is one of the best and safest investments on the board.
Luol Deng - FD 5700 DK 5600 DFSTR 5200
Deng has had back to back off nights shooting the ball, but he's still provided plenty of daily fantasy basketball value on the back of insane minutes. Like Wade, his value comes from the fact that the Heat won't pack it in until they're mathematically eliminated. The Magic have been slightly more generous to opposing small forwards than league average this season, and on a night where it will be tempting to go cheap everywhere, Deng represents a slightly higher investment at what should be a good multiplier tonight.
Wilson Chandler - FD 5600 DK 5600 DFSTR 5200
Also indications are that Hunt is going to ride the starting 5 to the finish line, and Chandler just got done gutting the Kings for 21/9/4 in spite of foul trouble. The Clips have basically played without a real small forward all season, and have allowed 5% more scoring 7% more rebounds, and a staggering 30% more assists than league average to opposing small forwards.
Also considered: Jeff Green, if he plays. He played 41 minutes last game, and that's a heck of a lot of minutes security.
Anthony Davis - FD 11700 DK 11000 DFSTR
You're looking to spend money tonight? Here's the guy you can do it on. He'll be a 100% start, I'd guess, but I'll try and persuade you anyway. Every other big money guy's minutes are in question (unless Westbrook's T get's overturned), and the Pelicans choke against the Rockets last night means they've still got to show up against the Timberwolves. Blessedly, the Wolves have no one left who can competently play in the front court, so this will be a cake walk of epic proportions for his royal Browness. A curb stomping. That's what this will be.
The Cheap Guys
Ryan Kelly - FD 4800 DK 4600 DFSTR 3000
Derrick Williams - FD 4100 DK 4000 DFSTR 3000
Marvin Williams - FD 5000 DK 5500 DFSTR
I'll take any of these three guys, though I've got more confidence in R. Kelly than any of the others just based on the recent track record. But each of the guys is priced far below his currently playing time and production, and they all have 6x-7x upside tonight.
Blake Griffin - FD 9500 DK 8700 DFSTR
It looks like the Clippers are going to try and grab the #2 seed, and Blake has been right in the center of everything. He hasn't been crushing on these prices, but there's a few things going on here. First, he's still been getting a ton of opportunity. He's gotten 41 shots in his last two games, and is running pretty bad from the field on pick and pops and drive and kicks. Denver's allowed about 4% more fantasy points than league average to opposing power forwards this season as well. The last piece is this - it's just tough to get the money in tonight, so you might be well served to take excellent cheap guys and middling expensive plays.
Hassan Whiteside - FD 7700 DK 7300 DFSTR 6100
With the season hanging in the balance, the Heat have finally turned Hassan Whiteside loose in his last two games, playing better than 35 minutes in each. He went ahead and put up and average of 18 and 17 with 3 blocks and half a steal. The Magic, for their part, have allowed 4% more points and 5% more rebounds than league average to opposing centers - and here's the kicker - 13% more blocks. This plays to Whiteside's sweet spot, and in what could be his last game of the season, I think they'll turn him loose once again.
Andre Drummond - FD 9200 DK 8400 DFSTR 7200
The Cavs aren't playing with a full deck right now, and Drummond's averaged 13/17 with three blocks a game in his last 5. It's sort of a home run play, and I'll take Whiteside, but I could see Drummond picking low hanging fruit here and putting up a 20/20.
Also considered: Justin Hamilton. He's coming off a great game against the Warriors, and the Wolves really don't have anybody else.
Keen an eye on Kosta Koufos. If Gasol is out, Koufos is a phenomenal play.