Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

James Davis

Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 4/14/15

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Tonight's the craziest slate I've ever written. Whole teams are sitting, and minutes across the league are utterly in doubt. If you want to get more precise projections, our projection system is about as up to date as I can get it, and you can grab a free three day trial that will bring you over to MLB season as well. On to the picks!

Point Guards

George Hill - FD 7600 DK 7200 DFSTR
Hill didn’t quite deliver on expectations against the Thunder, but sometimes that happens when Westbrook is throwing down the way he did against the Pacers. Nevertheless I like Hill in this spot and quite a bit. Regardless if Wall plays or not, Hill makes for a solid cash game play. The Pacers are scrapping for the final spot out of the East and until Paul George gets back to 100% (it's close) Hill is by far the most offensively talented player the Pacers have. I would imagine he will be a popular play and on such a short slate this isn't a spot you want to get cute; go with the flow.

Isaiah Thomas - FD 6800 DK 6200 DFSTR
Marcus Smart - FD 4300 DK 4300 DFSTR 4000
Weird sitch here. Smart is the starter, but IT keeps getting it done off the bench. On a pts/$ basis our projection system prefers Smart, but my gut tells me Thomas is the better cash game play. His production is considerably more consistent, which is remarkable considering Smart sees roughly 30% more run. IF, and that's a big if, Smart plays well he easily becomes the play of the day with legit 8x upside. The issue here is the fact Smart can just as easily suck the life right out of you. If you need to save the money Smart isn't a bad way to go given his upside. If you have a few extra bucks and want a little more safety Thomas is the guy.

Chris Paul - FD 10900 DK 9700 DFSTR
I'll get straight to it. CP3 is still seeing the mid 30's in minutes - even in blowouts. Coach has already said his starters will play. Take that for what you want, but it's a short slate and getting in "good" money is easier said than done. This is a total mismatch in every conceivable way for Paul and the Clips. I can't say its the best value or upside, but he's a good way to get money in with a decent expectation.

Ramon Sessions - FD 4900 DK 4200 DFSTR 3000
If Wall sits Sessions moves to the top of the list.


Shooting Guards

Bradley Beal - FD 6400 DK 6500 DFSTR 5200
Assuming Beal plays, as I imagine he should, he makes for a strong cash game play on such a short night. Beal has been on a roll reaching 28+ fantasy points in six straight games. His shot looks good and he's taking more of them. That's a good thing. This game won't have the most ideal pace, but the Pacers don't have anyone that can deal with Beal's athleticism at the two. He should once again be one of the main scoring threats when he's on the floor and call me crazy, but multiple steals could be in line as well.

Eric Bledsoe - FD 7700 DK 7100 DFSTR 7900
I bring you Bledsoe with a slight pause. His price has dropped about 12% from it's peak and for obvious reasons. The Suns have really taken a nose dive and Bledsoe's production has suffered. Bledsoe continues to dominate the ball in the Suns offense, but the offense as a whole just isn't always there. I don't mind rolling the dice in this situation because even in a blowout this one figures to still be high scoring on both sides. At this tag it's hard to call Bledsoe risky, but with the team in flux there is some risk associated with this pick. I still think this looks to be a nice buy low scenario. Home court is a plus.

Lou Williams - FD 5200 DK 5700 DFSTR
It never feels great giving you a backup, but sometimes there are just guys that have carved out a role for themselves. Lou Williams is just that; a reserve that sees consistent run. He also really likes to shoot the ball when he's out there. A former Flight Brother from his days in Philly, Williams knows how to score the ball.


Small Forwards

C.J. Miles - FD 5100 DK 5400 DFSTR 3800
I cannot believe Miles tops the list at SF tonight and it's not totally a reaction to his monster game against the Thunder. Okay, it's mostly a reaction to his game against the Thunder. The reality is there are very few options to choose from and considering the Clips/Suns game has more questions than answers I will close my eyes and slot Miles in at SF. Miles is seeing plenty of run at the moment and has actually been cruising to 4x value on the regular with some 5x sprinkled in along with his monster 10x last time out. It's not pretty, but neither are the remaining options. Sadly my lineups will have a lot of Miles tonight. Like 100% of them.

P.J. Tucker - FD 5000 DK 4800 DFSTR
Gerald Green - FD 4000 DK 4000 DFSTR
Tucker makes for a sound cash play. He hasn't been great lately, but he likely wont sink your ship either. Tucker's production is boring, but predictable, which counts for something on such a short slate. If you're looking for a little more upside in the same game take a look at GG. Green has quietly been getting in solid minutes and when given the opportunity has been hitting around 7x his current tag. This game expects to be high scoring and possibly quite lopsided. That's two key ingredients for Green's success as he tends to see more run in these scenarios. The Suns have been looking for more scoring lately and that's what Green does best. The Clippers don't defend well against SF as well. That's several things going in Greens favor tonight. Green is largely a GPP since the minutes aren't a lock, but the position is so thin tonight I wouldn't blame you if you ran him in cash lineups.


Power Forwards

Blake Griffin - FD 9500 DK 8700 DFSTR
With a lack of big money options tonight, Blake stands above the rest. The question is how much of a chance will he get. Short slate, blah, blah, blah. Even at this salary and blowout looming Griffin still offers an expected floor around 4x. You just have to ask yourself; you have to spend the money, but can you get better dollars in elsewhere? You may find the answer is no.

Marcus Morris - FD 5700 DK 5200 DFSTR 4300
Marcus has cooled off some from that tear he was on last month, but he still offers strong value in the right situations. This looks to be one of those situations. Marcus is still seeing close to 30 minutes most games and with this one figuring to be fast paced and wide open I like his chances to do more with the time he's out there. There's also the thought he faces the Clips B squad for much of the game.

Patrick Patterson - FD 4500 DK 4000 DFSTR 4100
Tyler Hansbrough - FD 4000 DK 4300 DFSTR 3000
Both of these guys are getting huge minutes with Amir Johnson out, and if that continues, both make fine punt plays tonight. Just a case of minutes not matching up with the price.



Center is a total log jam of value and questions marks. I'll do my best.

DeAndre Jordan - FD 8900 DK 8000 DFSTR
I prefer him from a value standpoint to Blake, but its considerably easier to find cheaper options at center. There's no question how dominate Jordan will be against a Suns team that lacks big men.

Marcin Gortat - FD 7400 DK 6500 DFSTR 5700
Has been on an absolute tear lately and if not for a bum match-up he would be the clear choice. Gortat is my guy for now, but that could change depending on news. This late in the season, it's just tough to know what teams whose playoff position is known will do.

Also considered: Roy Hibbert.

Keep an eye on Brandan Wright. The upside is clear if he winds up playing.

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