Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

04/15/2015
Brent Holloway

Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 4/15/15 - Evening Slate

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Editor's Note: Say hello to new DFSR contributor Brent Holloway. No like really, say hello. Don't be rude. We are excited to have him on board writing up baseball this season. You can follow him @thebholloway

Pitcher

On the hoof, not much appealing about this crop of SPs. Hold your nose and pick one.

Brandon Morrow - FD 6600 DK 6700
Morrow actually looked pretty filthy against San Fran in his first start of the season (7 IP, 7Ks 0 R, 4 H, 3 BB). That doesn’t impress our projection system as much as it might you and I, but it still likes Morrow’s chances against Arizona in power-sapping Petco – at least for the price. The San Diego park is especially tough on righties, diminishing the chances that Goldschmidt and Trumbo go bananas.

Brett Anderson - FD 6300 DK 6700 DFSTR 5100
The top value of the night according to our algorithm. Is Anderson still any good? I’m not all that confident, but since the oft-injured southpaw showed such promise five years, we haven’t really seen enough to know. He’s not gonna rack up a bunch of Ks, but what you’re hoping for here is six or seven strong innings with park-suppressed offense and maybe sneaking out with a win on the cheap.

If you spend a little more on pitching Lance Lynn and Jon Niese are interesting but I think going cheap and loading up a little more on bats is the way to go on this slate.

 

Catcher

Buster Posey - FD 4400 DK 4300 DFSTR 6900
Though he evened out a bit last season, this is still a guy who has taken lefties to task for his career. Posey is real tough for lefties to get down on strikes and has a career OPS split hovering around 1K. Hate the ballpark but like everything else about him.

Carlos Ruiz - FD 2400 DK 3200 DFSTR 4800
Ruiz isn’t the kind of guy who’s often gonna carry you to GPP glory, but he is the prototype for low-price, high-floor. He rarely whiffs, has batted second or fifth in every game this season, and sports a nifty .806 career OPS against lefties. A less important, but fun anecdote: he hasn’t had a 0-point game in FanDuel scoring this season. Try finding that anywhere else on near-minimum prices.

Dioner Navarro - FD 2600 DK 4100 DFSTR 3100
See: Ramirez, Erasmo. Navarro isn’t a thumper, so his ceiling is capped. But out of the six-hole, he’s sitting in a solid spot for run production and the Blue Jays should have the chance to put up some crooked numbers tonight.
If you want more BOOM potential and can stomach the distinct possibility of a Golden Sombrero, consider Evan Gattis. The price keeps falling, and he’s gonna snap out of this funk at some point.

Also: Devin Mesoraco has a favorable matchup if he’s back in there and you don’t mind the risk that comes with a banged-up backstop.

 

First Base

All that money you’ve been saving so far? Invest some here tonight.

Anthony Rizzo - FD 4300 DK 5100 DFSTR 7300
Rizzo evened up his splits a great deal last year, but the power numbers were still best against righties, and he’s facing the imminently mashable Jason Marquis (4.86 career FIP/4.58 xFIP).

Edwin Encarnacion - FD 4500 DK 5300 DFSTR 3100
Poor Erasmo. This won’t be the last we pick on him. Ramirez doesn’t throw strikes and when he does they often end up bound for the stratosphere. Encarnacion is an elite slugger with strong command of the zone. Don’t overthink it.

Consider Justin Smoak as a cheaper upside play

 

Second Base

Jose Altuve - FD 4100 DK 4600 DFSTR 7200
The projection system has him has one of the top hitters of the day, regardless of position. That’s largely due to his history against lefties. It’s really something to behold, so let’s do so: .350/.387/.489 with a .381 career wOBA. Yes, please.

Aaron Hill - FD 2200 DK 3800 DFSTR 3100
Reduced to a timeshare, there’s no guarantee he’ll be starting. But if he is, the league minimum is just too low for a guy less than two years removed from All-Star caliber numbers.

 

Third Base

Jose Reyes - FD 3800 DK 5000 DFSTR 3100
If you’re gonna spend on SS this evening, Reyes looks like your best value by a good margin as the price tag is far more manageable than Tulo’s. At a light-hitting position, Reyes is a top-flight guy from either side of the plate, but he really shines against righties. Also, he’s facing Erasmo Ramirez, against whom everyone shines. Add all that up and put it in Rogers Centre and you’ve got a solid high-floor play with respectable upside.

Everth Cabrera - FD 2300 DK 3500 DFSTR 4500
Contingent upon batting order, here’s your value play of the late slate at SS. Cabrera’s bounced between the extreme top and bottom of the lineup early this season, but he led off last night and as of this writing he’s produced with a hit, a walk and a run scored through three ABs, so maybe they’ll leave him up there for a bit. If so, feel free to plug him in here and invest that $1,500 or so elsewhere.

 

Third Base

Evan Longoria - FD 3700 DK 4600 DFSTR 6400
If you’ve been playing DFS for a while you already know what I’m gonna say here: Longoria rakes against lefties at a rate that’s borderline obscene. (.917 career OPS, .385 wOBA). Disregard the superficially ugly numbers he’s put up so far this season and grab him.

Yangervis Solarte - FD 2300 DK 3200 DFSTR 3100
As long as he’s hitting second in the order and he’s priced like this, Solarte’s gonna get a lot of run in this space. Chances are, though, the price is coming up soon. We don’t really have enough of a track record on switch-hitting Solarte to speaking confidently about his splits yet. What we do know is that so far from the left side he strikes out less, walks more and was hindered last year by a .262 BABIP that seems unsustainably low.

 

Outfield

Carlos Beltran - FD 2900 DK 4400 DFSTR 6400
The projection system is in ride-or-die mode when it comes to Beltran. He’s done next to nothing this year, but that .190 BABIP ain’t gonna hold. Closing in on 38 years old, Beltran is in steep decline, but his splits over the last three years are still very strong from the left side, and there aren’t many places better for lefties than Camden Yards. At this price, you could do a lot worse.

Jason Heyward - FD 3500 DK 4500 DFSTR 6600
Heyward’s decent-but-not-great numbers to this point in his career are a product of the fact that he can’t hit left-handed pitching. Against righties: .833 career OPS, .365 wOBA. Similarly, Wily Peralta has a pretty wide R/L wOBA split (.291/.344). This sets up well for a nice game for J-Hey.

Marlon Byrd - FD 2500 DK 4200 DFSTR 4800
Over the last two years, Byrd has morphed into an all-or-nothing guy, striking out a ton and knocking it out of the park at a decent rate. He’s especially dangerous against lefties, rocking a .853 OPS since 2012. With a favorable matchup, he makes a fine GPP play tonight.

Consider: Brandon Guyer if he’s hitting at the top of the order again. And Jose Bautista is there if you have enough dollars left over. Like the former a bit more for the money.

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