Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 4/18/15

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Pitcher

Early Slate

Tyson Ross - FD 8700 DK 8400 DFSTR 7600
OUr system like Ross though he has struggled some with his control in the early going. Though his K/9 is more than acceptable at more than a strikeout an inning, the walks are way up. Small sample size so I'm not totally worrying about it, but it's there. The Cubs have K'd a lot in this early season, which is a carryover from their 2014 campaign that saw them down on strikes a ton. I don't love the ballpark but Ross could put up some big swing and miss numbers in this one. He just needs to keep his control in check.

Phil Hughes - FD 8200 DK 7900 DFSTR 6800
It hasn't been a great start to the year for Hughes though in his defense he faced the Tigers in his first game and the White Sox in U.S. Cellular for his second outing. The latter is the exact wrong kind of ballpark for Hughes' skillset which is get the ball in the air in a big park and let the fielders catch it. He's back at home today against the Indians. Cleveland has been good against righties this season, but Hughes was built for this park. Look for a bounce back game coming at a discount because of the early season woes.

Late Slate

Felix Hernandez - FD 11400 DK 11200 DFSTR 10300
The Rangers have come out of the gate refusing to hit righty pitching, ranking near the bottom of the league in this team OPS split. King Felix had a terrible outing last game against the A's after dominating the Angels in his first start. I think there is so much savings in the batting ranks on this slate that you can take Hernandez at a slight overpay. He's in a fantastic pitcher's park against a weaker hitting team. The strikeout potential is higher enough to keep the floor in check. And though his price mitigates his ceiling some I think he's the safest cash game play.

Jacob deGrom - FD 9400 DK 8400 DFSTR 7500
The Marlins have been striking out at a fair clip to start the season and deGrom does have some swing and miss stuff. deGrom's ERA is well ahead of his xFIP in this early season, but the sample size is too small. He's coming off a 3.03 xFIP campaign last summer than also saw him striking out more than a batter an inning. Really like the strike out upside in this game considering the opponent. He's coming much cheaper than Hernandez which gives you the flexibility in the rest of your roster.

Consider Kyle Lohse as a cheaper option

 

Catcher

Early Slate

Wouldn't mind just hitting the "Skip" button on catcher for the early slate and moving on. That's how tough the sledding is here with the names populating the top of our points/$ list. I'll give some bullet points here, but in general I think you should go cheap and move on to greener pastures.

Carlos Ruiz - FD 2200 DK 3000 DFSTR 4600
Is coming at the minimum and is starting. That's about all you need to know about catcher on the early slate. That's literally the best case to be made for just about anyone. Ruiz is in the reverse split against a good pitcher. But he'll cost you nothing.

Russell Martin - FD 2900 DK 3800 DFSTR 5800
Dioner Navarro - FD 2500 DK 3500 DFSTR 3100
It's actually a reverse split for both guys against Wood, but the ballpark gives them each a bump in expectation.

Late Slate

Jonathan Lucroy - FD 3500 DK 3900 DFSTR 6600
With Jeff Locke pushed back to today some of my Brewers plays from yesterday stay the same
Jeff Locke is not a good pitcher and has such a struggle striking batters out. Lucroy hasn't completely broken it out of the box in the early season which has kept his price in check. That's a good spot to buy him in the short term. This is a guy who OPS'd well over .800 against lefties last season and has been successful in this split over his career. The price and matchup are enough for me to overlook the ballpark.

Evan Gattis - FD 2900 DK 4100 DFSTR 5400
The Grape was one of the best hitters in the league against lefty pitching last season. He put up an awesome .970 OPS to go with a .419 wOBA. Gattis is hitting in a park that really boosts power to righty pitching and C.J. Wilson has struggled to get batters down on strikes in the early season. It's close for me between Gattis and Lucroy.

 

First Base

Early Slate

Edwin Encarnacion - FD 4200 DK 4700 DFSTR 8000
There are a lot of decent pitchers going on this early slate so we will have to run into some of them sometime. E5 has the advantage of going in a great hitter's park in an advantageous split. He was actually better against righties last season, but was no slouch against lefties putting up an OPS close to .900. Alex Wood is a solid arm, but like I said, we are going to have trouble avoiding everyone who can chuck on this slate. For his price, Encarnacion is coming at a decent points/ $.

Freddie Freeman - FD 3500 DK 4200 DFSTR 6500
Our system has Freeman and Encarnacion in a nearly dead heat when at their respective prices. I have no problem swapping them in and out on the early slate as R.A. Dickey is a far cry from the pitcher he was a few seasons ago. Freeman put up an .885 OPS last season against righties and this ballpark really boosts power to lefties.

Late Slate

Albert Pujols - FD 4000 DK 4200 DFSTR 7100
Might be a slight overpay all things considered but Minute Maid Park does play power up slightly to right handed hitting and Pujols has been a historically good hitter against lefties. Well past his prime though and that's why I think he's just a tad expensive here. But I do think there is some power upside if you are chasing the home run.

Logan Morrison - FD 2200 DK 3200 DFSTR 5200
I'm looking at him as a cost-saving option on this slate considering I don't love some of the other options at the position. Morrison is hitting around the middle of the order for the Mariners against Colby Lewis who really struggles with lefty bats. He's slightly above average for his career against righty pitching with a 108 wRC+ and .330 wOBA, both of which are totally acceptable considering he's coming at the minimums.

 

Second Base

Early Slate

Alberto Callaspo - FD 2200 DK 2700 DFSTR 3100
Not really that good in real life, but the Braves insist on batting him second and that kind of lineup placement has enormous value. Again, this is something you will see us stress over the course of the season, but getting that extra at bat in a game can mean the world of difference. This one is all about the price as Callaspo doesn't have a ton of gifts except the one of opportunity.

Brian Dozier - FD 3100 DK 4100 DFSTR 6800
He costs more of course, but isn't so far a cry that you still aren't getting him at a bargain. Has started the season refusing to walk and insisting on striking out all of the time. I don't suspect these kinds of trends continue though Salazar is a strikeout pitcher (who also walks the ballpark). Something will give here and Dozier is coming cheap enough around that he makes a nice cash game play.

Late Slate

Robinson Cano - FD 3900 DK 4500 DFSTR 6700
Colby Lewis has spent a career getting pounded by lefty hitting. He's put up a 4.61 xFIP in that split to go with an OPS allowed that's well over .800. And this isn't some small sample size. He's been pitching batting practice to lefties for a long time. Cano is one of the best hitters in the league and especially excels against righty pitching. That's a nice place to meet on the old DFS graph and the only knock on Robinson today is the ballpark.

Consider Aaron Hill coming at the minimums.

 

Shortstop

Early Slate

Yunel Escobar - FD 3100 DK 3300 DFSTR 4800
Remains the leadoff hitter for the Nationals which leaves him batting in front of Desmond, Harper, Werth and Zimmerman. You and I could be in that spot and probably have some kind of value. Imagine if we could just hit major league pitching at a somewhat acceptable level? That's Yunel for you. Is getting on base at a slightly better clip than his career averages which could mean he's committed to the role (or is just getting lucky). Regardless, is setting the table and for a mid-priced shortstop we'll take it.

Late Slate

Jean Segura - FD 3000 DK 3800 DFSTR 5300
With Carlos Gomez on the shelf thanks to a hammy issue Segura got the start in the leadoff spit yesterday. I expect that to continue today with the lefty Jeff Locke on the mound. He's a well below average hitter in all splits, but the same can be said for many a shortstop. Segura's value here is in the batting order position and the speed upside if he gets on base. That's enough though.

Brad Miller - FD 2200 DK 3500 DFSTR 4800
Even hitting ninth in the order still leaves some room for Miller to snatch a little piece of the Colby Lewis dumpster fire and heat up with it.

Third Base

Early Slate

Josh Donaldson - FD 4000 DK 4200 DFSTR 6800
You knwo what he did to lefties last season right? This guy was among the best in the league at reducing lefty pitching to something akin to weeping children. Donaldson put up a .429 wOBA with a 185 wRC+ on his way to a monster season thanks in large part to what he did on this split. Facing Alex Wood in a hitter's ballpark gives his solid upside.

Yangervis Solarte - FD 2300 DK 3100 DFSTR 3100
In that Callaspo mold of stinking in real baseball but having value because the San Diego Dads insist on hitting him second. Stands to put up slightly better power numbers in Wrigley rather than Petco and hitting near the top of the order in front of Upton and company has his expectation a little higher than his actual skill level.

Late Slate

Aramis Ramirez - FD 3000 DK 3500 DFSTR 5900
From yesterday
Aramis faces lefty Jeff Locke which is good for Mr. Ramirez. Last season Aramis posted a ridiculous .440 wOBA and 182 WRC+ against lefties. Those were among the best in the league and it's always a favorable split for him. He's coming so very cheap considering his upside in this split and should be a staple of your cash game plays on this slate.

Josh Harrison - FD 3100 DK 4000 DFSTR 6300
I mentioned his early season Babip woes yesterday. That has helped drive his price down over the short term. He's still hitting leadoff for the Buckos and is actually a decent reverse splits guy. I have him behind Aramis in terms of value and raw points, but think Harrison makes an interesting consideration as he's off some radars right now.

Consider Kyle Seager

 

Outfield

Early Slate

This position is a real bad shout on this slate. I think you are going to be rostering guys either in bad pitching matchups or who are over-priced (or maybe even both).

Melky Cabrera - FD 2600 DK 3700 DFSTR 6500
Adam Eaton - FD 2600 DK 3400 DFSTR 5700
The luxury you are getting from these two guys is just how cheap they are coming. Both are creeping toward the minimums which is probably a little wronge consider their skill sets. But that's reality for guys who don't do anything particularly well on offense. But they can score runs if getting on base. Both are running something awful in Babip to start the season with Melky at .200 and Eaton at .133. That's about as bad as it gets. Facing Anibal Sanchez isn't the best spot to buy low, but man these guys are coming cheap.

Jason Heyward - FD 3500 DK 4200 DFSTR 6600
Matt Holliday - FD 3600 DK 4200 DFSTR 6700
A bit more expensive but are facing Homer Bailey in the latter's first start back after a DL stint. Bailey has decent stuff but has been blown up in the past. Like I said, this is somewhat a war of attrition in the early slate outfield. Choose your lesser of evils and move on.

Late Slate

There is a lot of really nice, low-cost value in the OF on this slate. I like a bunch of different guys. Rather than write each of them up I will just say that these guys each are on the right side of their splits facing below average pitching. This is a good spot to mix and match some of these cheaper guys into a variety of stacks.

Carl Crawford - FD 2900 DK 4100 DFSTR 6100
Khris Davis - FD 2500 DK 3900 DFSTR 5700
David Peralta - FD 2700 DK 3700 DFSTR 4900
Seth Smith - FD 2600 DK 3900 DFSTR 6000
Chris Carter - FD 2600 DK 4000
Honestly, and shameless plug coming here, these guys are good examples of why having access to our projection system helps in creating lineups. Each of these guys is at slightly different price points, and work into lineups differently. But working them into a some different scenarios is a solid +EV play.

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