Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 4/20/15
Ready to make the leap and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks? Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster.
Quick Note: As always, dudes playing in Coors are in play thanks to the boost in power expectation. But the sites have gotten wise to this and have price-corrected many of them. I put some specific guys in the list who stand out. But overall, the Padres righties and top of the order for the Rockies are very much in play. You just need to really pay up for them.
As gross a pitching slate as you're likely to ever see.
A.J. Burnett - FD 7000 DK 8200 DFSTR 6500
He's been racking up the K's in his first two starts, striking out close to 12 batters per nine innings. Burnett can have control issues, but his first two go arounds have seen him limiting the walks. That's a good, early sign. The Cubs strike out almost 24% of the time against right-handed pitching and have a bunch of free swingers in their lineup. Burnett is coming real cheap all things considered. And though the matchup against Arrieta could make getting a win tough, the matchup and K upside dictates a play here.
Hisashi Iwakuma - FD 8300 DK 8800 DFSTR 7200
First two starts have been nothing to write home about (assuming he does that, probably uses email or maybe it's just a FaceTime thing) but on such a gross slate you have to pitch somebody (or two guys). In his 11 innings this season his xFIP is much better than his ERA so there's some run bad in there. And he's run bad with home runs early too. The season is just getting started so I don't buy too much on recent performance unless something it really wrong. That isn't the case with Iwakuma. The Astros strike out a ton against righties, a number that's carried over from last season. The ballpark really helps as well as Safeco depresses power all the way around. On an ugly slate he rates out near the top in points per dollar from the bump.
Derek Norris - FD 2800 DK 3800 DFSTR 5900
He's heading into Coors at a very reasonable price. If he's going be batting high in the order then there's a lot to love about Norris as a play today. He hammered lefties last season with 148 wRC+ and .843 OPS on that side of the split. I think we are all well aware of what happens in Coors Field. The sites have been good about price correcting for matchups in this park. But Norris may have flown under the radar here. He's pretty much the only play I'll be making at catcher barring something crazy.
Jonathan Lucroy - FD 3300 DK 4100 DFSTR 6700
I'm still on the bandwagon though it's getting a little lonely there. One day he'll pay off when we recommend him. I much prefer Norris on this slate, and I think everyone else will too. But Lucroy is still a solid value considering his skillset, price and slot in the order.
Carlos Santana - FD 3200 DK 4600 DFSTR 6500
He hit lefties real well last season with an .864 OPS and .381 wOBA in that split. That matches up well with John Danks' ineffectiveness against right-handed hitting. Danks allowed an OPS over .800 to righty bats last season, which was up a bit from his career averages. I like this spot for Santana and I find myself often targeting guys against Danks.
Miguel Cabrera will cost you an arm and a leg, but he's in a great spot against Danks in a hitter's park.
After Santana you can go cheap in a couple of spots with guys like Logan Morrison and Kendrys Morales. The former is especially good if you are trying to fit in some of those Col/SD bats elsewhere.
Robinson Cano - FD 3800 DK 4900 DFSTR 6700
The price continues to stay in a lower range considering how good of a hitter this guy has been for his career. Love him as a cash game play considering his contact rate. Guy hasn't taken a walk yet this season which is a little troubling, and the K's are up slightly, but for his career he's been amazingly consistent in both areas. Love the floor considering how much contact he makes.
Jedd Gyorko - FD 2700 DK 3900 DFSTR 3100
Like Norris, he's another guy whose price didn't climb too much even with the trip to Coors. Facing a lefty there is a great spot for Gyorko as he carries in an above average career 119 wRC+ against lefties. Coming very cheap considering the ballpark and has been hitting just below the middle of the order so he stands to see enough at bats here.
Go cheap here my friends. Go cheap.
Jose Ramirez - FD 2600 DK 3700 DFSTR 3100
Mike Aviles - FD 2400 DK 3500 DFSTR 5400
Aviles sometimes gets the nod against lefties, but I think you can basically just punt away shortstop on this slate. It will be very difficult to pay up for Tulo and I don't love many/any of the mid-range options. Neither of these guys is anything to get excited about, but each would see a bump if the Indians moved them up the order to face the lefty. That's a bit of a leap, but it has happened in the past.
Erick Aybar - FD 2800 DK 3700 DFSTR 5300
Another guy I'm not entirely excited over, but the matchup againt Kendall Graveman is solid as the latter has been walking more batters than he's striking out in this early part of this season. Aybar doesn't really do any one thing particularly well on offense. But he won't crush your soul either. He just exists somewhere in that boring middle.
Yangervis Solarte - FD 2600 DK 3400 DFSTR 6700
Another guy whose price didn't totally adjust when coming into Coors. Solarte has been hitting second in the lineup for the Dads and that's an enormous boost for a guy who has already been slightly above average in his split over his career. Thought the sample size is smaller, he does have a 111 wRC+ in this split. de la Rosa is pretty garbage and Solarte can do enough to more than justify the boost he's getting in a park.
Aramis Ramirez - FD 2800 DK 3700 DFSTR 6000
At this point is just coming so cheap that it's getting a little awkward. Hitting righties is not dude's strong suit, but man the price is reaching critical mass. He's under 3K on FanDuel which seems crazy considering his skill set and the fact that he hits cleanup.
Melky Cabrera - FD 2700 DK 3800 DFSTR 6600
Adam Eaton - FD 2600 DK 3400 DFSTR 5800
Feel like the prices on these guys are dumb, especially on Melky. Two guys hitting 1-2 in the order in a fantastic hitter's park, in front of one of the best hitters in baseball in Jose Abreu? And they are coming near the minimums? It's silly and I'm happily slotting them into cash games because of how many at bats they stand to see and their ability to score runs. Trevor Bauer has some K stuff, but dude gets wild. Neither Melky or Eaton have a ton of power upside, so I'm not sure they win GPPs for you, but they both have high floors considering the prices.
Carlos Gonzalez - FD 4400 DK 4600 DFSTR 7400
I know I put the note about all of the Rockies top of the order bats being in play today. But I'll make an additional note about Cargo because I think he's the best deal of all the outfielders playing in this park tonight. He's struggled out of the gate this season thanks a bit to the Babip and the Hr/FB% trending a little low. But the season is still young and playing in Coors at these prices makes him a value.