Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

Doug Norrie

Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 4/23/15

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Julio Teheran - FD 8900 DK 9200 DFSTR 7900
It's a little much to ask to pay up for Scherzeron this early slate considering he's facing a tougher Cardinal team and is so darn expensive. So you need to head a tier down. Teheran won't blow it out of the box with K's, and the offense is real rough behind him when looking for a win. But he has solid peripherals over the last season even with some hiccups early this year. The Mets don't have a ton to write home about when facing righties and are a middle of the pack bunch. This is a close one.

Masahiro Tanaka - FD 8600 DK 9600 DFSTR 7800
The bad: he's facing one of the best teams in the league against righty pitching. The good: Tanaka has the highest K upside of anyone in his price tier. I wouldn't consider him safe by any means, but the price builds in a little bit of comfort.

Strongly consider Bartolo Colon as his early season success doesn't seem like a complete aberration.

Clay Buchholz - FD 7700 DK 7400 DFSTR 6000 SpTradeX B
This guy has been all over the place this season. One phenomenal start, one okay-ish start and one drubbing. He's such a tough guy to pin down (figuratively of course) in that even his historical season-to-season numbers read all wonky. Should be able to challenge hitters in the ballpark seeing as how it knocks down power. The Rays are so-so against righty pitching, but don't strike out a ton. Don't let Clay's early season ERA sway you too much as the xFIP is about four runs behind it. But that is only slightly comforting. I think I'll plug him in and then not watch the game because it will be too maddening.



Welington Castillo - FD 2400 DK 3000
Think he'll be in the lineup against the lefty on this slate and that's a good spot for Welington. He's been effective in that split over the last season with an .855 OPS and .376 wOBA. Those numbers are fantastic considering his price. The ballpark shuts power down some but you would be getting Castillo at a great price point.

Consider Yasmami Grandal against Vogelsong

Eesh. Do you hate yourself? If so then trying to pick a catcher on this slate will be just the kind of thing you need to keep the negativity going.
Stephen Vogt - FD 3500 DK 3500 DFSTR 3100 SpTradeX D
He's been real good this season, coming off a campaign in which he was well above average against righty pitching. IF Vogt is going to keep up with his walk rate then this might not be a crazy overpay. And if you don't play Sale you shouldn't have an issue fitting his salary. Our system just doesn't love the value, but it might be undershooting his walks.


First Base

Yonder Alonso - FD 3200 DK 4300 DFSTR 5900
This one is all about Coors. Jordan Lyles is an extreme ground ball pitcher so he actually profiles well for the park. But it isn't enough to outweigh the power expectation a guy like Alonso gets hitting in this park. He isn't a must play, but in the early slate there are few other guys in his point/$ range.

Consider Adam Lind

Chris Davis - FD 3500 DK 4700 DFSTR 5900 SpTradeX C
Thought the price was right on him yesterday and he turned in a fair performance with a single and a couple of walks. In a similar situation today against Hutchison. The biggest problem for Crush is the strikeouts as he seems to have some sort of incentive in his contract to go down swinging as much as possible. But the Rogers Center really plays up power and that's the name of Crush's game. Risky, but big upside.

Jose Abreu - FD 4400 DK 5200 DFSTR 7400 SpTradeX B
You are going to pay for him, but I think he's in a good spot against Ventura. Abreu was awesome against righty pitching last season with an OPS over .900 in that split and a wOBA close to .400. Ventura struggles to put guys down on strikes and US Cellular Field is one of the very best power parks in all of baseball.

Consider Ike Davis if he's in the lineup

Second Base

Chase Utley - FD 3100 DK 4600 DFSTR 6500
He's been struggling something fierce on this short season but I'm not close to overreacting to it. His Babip is an insane .079 and though the K's are up, he's still an above average hitter against righties going in one of the better power parks in baseball. This isn't the old Utley of course so I don't think he's an insane value, but he faces a walk machine in David Phelps.

Consider Alberto Callaspo batting second so you can get out of second base and never think about it again on this slate.

Second base on the late slate is about as bad as I've ever seen a situation. I don't want to play anyone.
Jimmy Paredes - FD 2700 DK 2000 DFSTR 3000
If he hits second again then I think this is your play. He's only pretending to be a good hitter over the last couple of games. It's mostly an aberration. He isn't good. But hitting second at his prices is a good enough reason to play him on this slate.

Consider Ben Zobrist and Dustin Pedroia but you are overpaying some.


Alexi Amarista - FD 2200 DK 3700 DFSTR 4700
Batting eighth but hitting in Coors. How's that for sound process? I don't love it either but you can roster some of the more expensive pitchers without taking on too much downside considering the run expectation for the Padres. But don't get me wrong, Amarista stinks. There just really isn't anyone else that you aren't massively overpaying for.

Consider Starlin Castro against Locke or Jimmy Rollins against Vogelsong. But I don't love either.

Jose Reyes - FD 3700 DK 4700 DFSTR 7100 SpTradeX C
You are paying up for him on this slate and there's a little concern about how his rib injury will effect his hitting. He's batting from the right side only right now which is a change for the guy. But he has been able to make some contact. Don't love this spot, but you are a bit stuck at SS on this slate as well.

Erick Aybar - FD 2800 DK 3900 DFSTR 5300 SpTradeX D
Jesse Chavez wasn't a bad starter when he had the chance last season and has been nails out of the bullpen to start here. This one is a little risky but there's very little to like about the evening slate of shortstop.

Third Base

Yangervis Solarte - FD 2700 DK 3700 DFSTR 3100
A lot of folks started him yesterday and with good reason. He was hitting second in Coors and coming cheap. That should be the case again today if his position in the batting order sticks. Honestly, even if he dropped some the value would still be there. By no means a great hitter, but he drew more walks than K's against righties last season and of course the power bumps a bit with the ballpark.

Kris Bryant - FD 3900 DK 4400
The sample size is small but compelling. Bryant is the real deal and seems especially adept at destroying left-handed pitching. Hitting in the middle of the order and getting the job done. Only a few games in but the OPS is crushing and he's drawn more walks than K's. Going to be hearing his name for quite some time and he's in a good spot against Locke.

Conor Gillaspie - FD 2200 DK 3100 DFSTR 5000
Brett Lawrie - FD 2700 DK 3700 DFSTR 5100
These guys profile similarly and are priced accordingly. Have just enough offense in them to stay relevant although they both hit lower in the order. Both are coming cheap, neither K's a ton or walks to any great degree. But they're both above average against righty hitting over the last season or so and face low K guys in Tropeano and Venture.



Carlos Gonzalez - FD 3600 DK 4900 DFSTR 7300
Something has to give with Cargo. It may have started to give yesterday when he was dropped to sixth in the order. That knocks his expectation down a bit. And some of his numbers have looked a little odd over the last two seasons. But I'm hanging on to a bit of hope. The price is low and he's facing a pitcher in Ross who, while effective, at times can succumb to control issues.

Carl Crawford - FD 2700 DK 4400 DFSTR 3100
Hopefully he's over the sniffles and ready to get back to work. Been a rough one for Carl so far but it's only dropped his price into the solid value range. I don't necessarily expect huge things from the guy, but he's a better hitter than what he's shown early. Above average against righties and facing Vogelsong who's no ace.

Wil Myers - FD 4000 DK 4700 DFSTR 6600
He's at the borderline of affordable considering he's hitting in the wrong side of his split. But batting leadoff in Coors makes it close. I'm really only going here if I'm saving on pitching.

Consider Khris Davis coming cheap

Melky Cabrera - FD 2700 DK 4200 DFSTR 6500 SpTradeX C
The price is and remains simply too low. This is a guy who, against righties, is very difficult to strike out with only an 11% K% and that's a good sign against someone like Yordano Ventura who's been struggling to rack up any significant K numbers. Melky hitting second with this kind of contact rate is such a huge advantage and he's a guy I love running out as a safer play.

Alejandro de Aza - FD 2900 DK 4000 DFSTR 5400
Travis Snider - FD 2900 DK 3900 DFSTR 6400
Love the ballpark and the matchup against Hutchison who, while able to strike guys out does get wild at times. Both Snider and de Aza get just enough done against right handed hitting with wRC+'s in the 110-ish range over the last season plus.

Strongly consider Kole Calhoun
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