Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

James Davis

Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 4/26/15

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Jake Arrieta - FD 9600 DK 9000 DFSTR 3100
With Saturday's rain out, Arrieta will get the call against the Reds. And a fine call that is, to get. The Reds have the 6th lowest wOBA in the majors against right handed pitching, which is not very good. Arrieta gets little credit for being ace caliber, but we're looking at 28 starts in the majors in the last two years with a 2.73 xFIP, which is awfully good. It's not totally clear as of this writing if DeSclafani or Marquis will get the start, but either way Arrieta should be a significant favorite to pull a win in a very nice match-up.

Lance Lynn - FD 8400 DK 8800 DFSTR 8100
It's a gruesome day for pitching, my friends. To that end, Lance Lynn stands out from both a safety perspective. He's better than a K an inning so far this season, had a solid outing against the Brewers the first time they met, and Mike Fiers has struggled to keep opposing hitters in the park this season. In a slate that's devoid of any real ace, Lynn's the best we can grab after Arrieta.

Brandon Morrow - FD 6200 DK 6800
If Lynn's the standard for safety for tomorrow, I'll submit Morrow as his upside based counterpart. The overall line isn't going to blow you away, but this early int he season, pitcher lines demanding additional parsing. Morrow was fantastic against the Giants, good against Arizona, and then pretty bad against Colorado in Coors. All told - that's a great start to the season. The Dodgers have been fantastic in their own right, but this is a great park to pitch in, and a nice price to boot. The real deal sweetener is the opposing pitcher. Scott Baker was decent in the minors this year, but last pitched effectively in 2011. Nice spot for a win, and potential other goodies as well.



Buster Posey - FD 3800 DK 4800 DFSTR 7200 SpTradeX B
These are the DFS moments that you wait for. Posey's price is depressed by some bad BABIP luck to start the season, and his peripheral stats (more walks than Ks, for instance) suggest that these trends won't last. Furthermore, he'll get literally his perfect match-up. Posey has put up a ridiculous .961 OPS against left handed pitching over the course of his career spanning all ballparks and lefties - and now he'll get a lousy lefty in the best hitters' park in major league history. The very definition of a must play.

Salvador Perez - FD 2900 DK 3900 DFSTR 5600 SpTradeX D
John Danks has followed up two brutal seasons with an even worse start to 2015, and he'll ply his lousy left handed pitching against the Royals after Saturday's rain-out. Perez is one of the more dramatic platoon guys in the game - posting an OPS a staggering .125 points higher against southpaws over the course of his career. Perez is off to a fine start to the season, and if you want to go dramatically against the grain he could be a fine play.

Evan Gattis - FD 2300 DK 3900 DFSTR 5100 SpTradeX D
If you want to grab a high upside guy at basically no salary, Gattis is your guy. He's got better than a .500 SLG against lefties over the course of his career, and while Pomeranz is pitching very well this season, he's certainly not immune to making mistakes. I'd rank him higher here if it weren't for Oakland's tough hitting environment, but he's a fantastic GPP play regardless.

First Base

David Ortiz - FD 3400 DK 4700 DFSTR 7100 SpTradeX B
This is not a typo - Bud Norris has given up 20 earned runs in 10 innings pitched this year. While this absurd level of incompetence is new, Norris has never been any great shakes - so his decline could be particularly horrifying. And Papi, for his part, is actually looking pretty good this season. His walks are up, his iso is only slightly down, and his poor triple slash line can largely be attributed to an unsustainable .206 BABIP. This could be a huge, huge game.

Freddie Freeman - FD 3200 DK 5000 DFSTR 6500 SpTradeX B
At this point in the season we're going to see a lot of guys who are simply running bad, and Mr. Freeman clearly qualifies there. After 1300 plate appearances with a .361 BABIP, he's managed just a .263 number so far this season. That won't continue. And, Jerome Williams! With a 5.84 career K/9 to go with a 3.12 career BB/9, he's going to have a pretty tough time keeping Freddie down. Philly is also a great place to hit. I consider this a fantastic match-up for safety, with plenty of upside built in as well.

Albert Pujols - FD 3000 DK 4300 DFSTR 6800 SpTradeX C
I'm going to save some of Nick Martinez's most gruesome stats for later in this article, just to keep you reading. Needless to say, the man with the sub-5 K/9 for his career might have a tough against this specific first ballot hall of famer on Sunday. When superstars age, their stats generally decline because they have trouble keeping up with elite stuff. Pujols can still hit this garbage, and his season starts turning around today.

Also considered: Kendrys Morales, because John Danks sweepstakes.

Second Base

Robinson Cano - FD 3700 DK 4700 DFSTR 6700 SpTradeX C
On a day where you can afford to go cheaper at pitcher, it's going to mean grabbing a fair amount of higher priced guys across the board. One guy our projection system would have you consider is Robinson Cano. Cano's off to a slow start, and it's not great that the Ks and BBs are both going in the wrong direction. But! Cano's one of the most consistent hitters in history, and there's no major reason to think this will be the year that stops. Kyle Gibson was once a promising prospect, but everything has headed in the wrong direction - culminating in this season's tremendously bad 9 walks against 3 Ks in 15 innings pitch. This is just a talent mismatch, and Cano is one of the safest plays on the board.

Brian Dozier - FD 2700 DK 4100 DFSTR 6600 SpTradeX C
The price is getting offensive on Dozier. You should be offended. Getting a 20/20 player at second base for $2,700 on FanDuel is great in its own right, and a lot of that opportunity is brought to you by Dozier's tremendous platoon splits. Last year he had an OPS nearly .200 points higher against left handed pitching, and his horrid hitting of righties keeps his price low enough to make him playable. Elias is basically league average, and it's a tough place to hit, but the platoon split sells it for me.

Neil Walker - FD 2900 DK 3800 DFSTR 6400 SpTradeX C
I've written this perhaps 1,000 times, but Walker is one of the more underrated platoon guys. His .54 wOBA split in favor of facing righties is dramatic, and he'll be in play any time he's facing one. What moves the needle is the particular pitcher, and the park. Bank One passes the park question with flying colors (it's a great hitters park), and Jeremy Hellickson and his 10 Ks against 6 BBs in 17 IP this year meet the other.



Troy Tulowitzki - FD 4600 DK 5800 DFSTR 8500 SpTradeX B
This one doesn't need a ton of explanation except to know that his price has come down quite a bit in the short term. He doesn't rank high on the points/$ list in terms of shortstop, but you are saving a decent amount at pitcher and in some other spots that I think getting his salary in there won't bust you. Tulo is Tulo and I'm not going to go nuts here describing his superlatives. Positional scarcity makes him the best raw points SS on every slate.

Matt Duffy - FD 2200 DK 3700 DFSTR 3100 Another lefty going in Coors today and it stands to reason that Duffy will get the start again at second base instead of Panik. If he hits second in the order in the lineup again then I think you can overlook a number of offense-related deficiencies because of the price. Hitting in this spot in the order in Coors at punt prices makes for an easy buy with the idea that you'll spend plenty in other areas.

Danny Santana - FD 2500 DK 3700 DFSTR 5000 SpTradeX D
He's been decent against lefties and over the last season or so has posted a 122 wRC+ and .345 wOBA in that split. Santana setting the table with the potential speed makes him a solid threat even in a bad ballpark. Roenis Elias is pretty trashy and I like Santana in the mid tier.

Erick Aybar - FD 2200 DK 3600 DFSTR 5300 SpTradeX D
In case we haven't mentioned it before, Nick Martinez is trash. I know he has a 0.45 ERA on the season. It's fake. His xFIP is more in the mid 4's and he strikes out less than five batters per nine innings. Aybar is just one of those dude who kind of hangs out the periphery fantasy-wise. But in this case I think his floor is high enough to consider in cash games considering the matchup.


Third Base

Pablo Sandoval - FD 2900 DK 3900 DFSTR 6200
I said horrible and yet accurate things about Bud Norris in his write-up above, and those don't need to be repeated here. I'm semi-concerned about Sandoval's ridiculous .033 ISO this year, but I'll take his track record of being 160 OPS points better against right handers and Norris truly grizzly year to date stats and say screw his small sample size power outage.

Trevor Plouffe - FD 2300 DK 3900 DFSTR 5700
You're on six straight games where you'd have been happy with Plouffe's performance on these near minimum salaries, and he'll have his best match-up of that bunch on Sunday. Plouffe is another big platoon guy, with an OPS .123 points higher against lefties over the course of his career. A great play if you want to get away cheaply here.

Evan Longoria - FD 3000 DK 4100 DFSTR 6000
Longoria is also firmly in the run-bad all stars so far this season (his K/BB rates are great, the ISO is fine, but the BABIP is a mess). Longoria is considerably better against lefties, and he's facing one today. But what really gets me is the particular lefty. Mark Buehrle has managed to strike out just 7 batters this year. Taking Ks off the table eliminates Longoria's one weakness. I've been bitten by Buehrle before, but dear God, please don't let it be here.

Also considered: Josh Harrison.



Mike Trout - FD 5100 DK 5500 DFSTR 8500 SpTradeX B
Kole Calhoun - FD 3400 DK 4800 DFSTR 7200 SpTradeX C
Matt Joyce - FD 2200 DK 3300 DFSTR 5000
As stated before, Nick Martinez stinks. I repeat: Nick Martinez stinks. He doesn't strike anyone out, and has an xFIP light years worse than his totally fake 0.45 ERA. Let others be swayed by Martinez's early season success. I'm buying all over Trout and especially Calhoun. Both are better against righty pitching and everyone should be good against Nick Martinez.

Angel Pagan - FD 3200 DK 4800 DFSTR 6900 SpTradeX C
Justin Maxwell - FD 2800 DK 3600 DFSTR 3100
Don't know who the Giants will start in the third OF slot but these two guys definitely rate playing against Matzek in Coors. Both are coming at affordable prices considering the power bump they get from playing in Coors. I'm tempered a little mostly because of their overall hitting ability against righties, but man the ballpark.

Desmond Jennings - FD 2600 DK 3900 DFSTR 5500 SpTradeX C
Brandon Guyer - FD 2300 DK 3600 DFSTR 6300
The Rays love to platoon the s#@$ out of their guys leaving Jennings and Guyer up near the top of the lineup when a lefty is on the mound. Our system is no fan of Mark Buehrle and why should it be? Dude strikes out about five batters per nine and has an xFIP over 4 in the last year and change. Both Jennings and Guyer and hit lefties real well and their prices are affordable.

Melky Cabrera - FD 2300 DK 4400 DFSTR 6500 SpTradeX C
Because it's DFSR and we love this guy. Scores points everyday and his price has actually dropped.

Steve Pearce - FD 3000 DK 3800 DFSTR 6600
Did you see what this dude did lefties last season? He was one of the best guys in this split in all of the majors with an OPS over 1.100. It doesn't get much better than that. Wade Miley doesn't offer much in the way of resistance and if Pearce is hitting second then he makes a fantastic play.

Strongly consider Carlos Gonzalez and Jorge SolerDelmon Young, Torii Hunter and Seth Smith.

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1 Visitor Comment

  1. Nick Martinez…trash…just trash. lol

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