Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings 6/14/15

Full disclaimer - this is a massive slate, and there's no way I could ever possibly list every decent play today. So, I'll do my best in highlighting whom I believe to be the elite plays. If you want the rest? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster.

 

Pitchers

Max Scherzer - FD 11400 DK 11700
It's a fine day to pay up for some pitching, as is often the case on slates this size. In Scherzer you can get a guy with cream of the crop peripherals (10.35 K/9 and 1.35 BB/9) with a phenomenal match-up. It really doesn't get a whole heck of a lot better than that. Against right handed pitching, the Brewers have struck out with the 6th highest frequency of any team in the majors while compiling the 8th worst wOBA. They also happen to be starting the erratic Taylor Jungmann, who has a FIP north of 4 in AAA over the course of the last two years. This is a mismatch like you read about, and as odd as it is to say about a guy this expensive, I can see playing Scherzer in all formats.

Cole Hamels - FD 9700 DK 10800
Hamels is an interesting guy today for much the same reasons that Scherzer is. He's not as good as Mad Max, but his 3:1 K:BB ratio and strikeout-per-inning stuff are plenty elite. He also has arguably an even better match-up. Against left handed pitching, the Pirates have the 4th highest K% and the 5th worst wOBA in the major leagues. He gets dinged a little bit because Burnett can still deal a little bit, but Hamels has arguably as much upside as Scherzer at a slightly discounted price. I can see playing him in all formats as well, though taking Scherzer in 50/50s will be awfully tempting.

Jon Lester - FD 9000 DK 8600
Lester has taken a little step back from a peripheral standpoint this season, but it really is the littlest of steps. His 3.20 xFIP (compared to last season's 3.10) is still elite, and his lousy luck has been the major cause of his deflated ERA. His .344 BABIP allowed is .041 points higher than his career levels, and he's stranding 2.5% fewer runners as well. Taken as a whole, this kinda luck will eat your ERA up in a hurry. In this game Lester will square off against the Cincinnati Reds, who are quite frankly not the best match-up for left handed pitchers. But, there are a couple of factors working in his favor. One is Anthony Desclafani - he's had the opposite luck of Lester, running an ERA a full point ahead of his xFIP. The next is Lester's price. He's got similar stuff to, say, Hamels, but just not the results to show for it this far. He'll also be a big separation play (meaning that few people will play him), allowing you to get ahead in large tournaments if others go more traditional routes. Not a 50/50 game play, but the upside here is very real.

Also considered: James Shields.

 

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Catchers

Travis d'Arnaud - FD 3000 DK 3800
D'Arnaud has been raking recently, and the interesting thing about his top recommendation here is that our projection system doesn't even take that into account. It likes him straight up against Mike Foltynewicz, who has left balls up in the zone throughout every stop in the minors and majors. His 4.29 xFIP is driven by his ridiculously low 32% ground ball rate, and while he has managed a decent K rate this season, his lack of command around the zone could give D'Arnaud even more opportunity to barrel up some hard hit balls. If you're worried about going against D'Arnaud's platoon splits, don't be - he's been .100 OPS points better against right handers over the course of his short career.

Evan Gattis - FD 3500 DK 3800
If you want to catch a little upside in a bottle from the catcher position today, Evan Gattis is probably your guy. Gattis has a near .500 SLG against lefties over the course of his career, and he'll have the opportunity to catch Roenis Elias away from his forgiving home park in Seattle. And please, don't be spooked by Elias' early season ERA. His 4.20 xFIP tells a much better story about his talent level, and his career wOBA allowed is .029 points higher against right handed hitting. Gattis could absolutely get a hold of one here.

Wilson Ramos - FD 2500 DK 3800
It's odd to take Ramos against his platoon split, but he's only about .024 OPS points worse against righties this season, and the righty he's facing in this instance (Taylor Jungmann) should be the kind of guy who can make up for a poor platoon situation with general lack of pitching ability. He just plowed a homer off of the similarly talented Jimmy Nelson, and with 2 homers in the last week, it looks like his power stroke has kicked on. What's really happening here, though, is a straight value play. His $2,500 price tag on FanDuel is too low for a guy with his baseline talent batting 5th in a respectable lineup.

 

First base

David Ortiz - FD 2500 DK 4100
Our projection system has been calling for a steady hand on Ortiz all season, and we've been reaping the benefits heavily this week. With three straight 5+ fantasy point games on FanDuel, Ortiz has shown that he can still maintain mid-tier 1B value. Ortiz has basically the same underlying stats as he did when he put together 35 homers an .880 OPS a season ago, and while some decline at his age is inevitable, he's still a great value on a points per dollar basis. He'll have a nice platoon situation against the league average Estrada, and another good game is possible here.

Chris Davis - FD 3000 DK 4500
Davis isn't having a phenomenal season or anything, but he's still an extreme upside play in the right situation. Sunday's match-up with Adam Warren in Baltimore is one such situation. Davis' OPS has been .105 points higher against right handed pitching during his career, and .070 points higher at home. The strikeouts are his Achilles Heel, of course, but Adam Warren is one of the very worst strike out pitchers in baseball. His 5.32 K/9 means he's basically only striking out guys who foul off a few balls first, and Davis getting more bat on ball action means he's playable in most formats.

Mark Teixeira - FD 3700 DK 4800
This is the first time I've recommended Tex this season, as I was a little dubious as to his "comeback season." Well, 17 home runs and a .929 OPS later, and I'm singing a different tune. The ridiculous thing here is that Teixeira might actually have been unlucky so far this year - his .215 BABIP is an abomination. Facing the rookie Mike Wright is a terrific spot for him - he's flashed modest promise in the minors, but really doesn't look like he's up to the task of handling major league pitching just yet. Huge upside game for Teixeira if you'd like to spend up at the position.

Also considered: Lucas Duda, Joe Mauer.

 

Second base

Jose Altuve - FD 3400 DK 4100
If you want upside and consistency from the second base position, Altuve's price is looking extremely palatable. He has an .870 OPS against left handed pitching for his career, which is great for any position, and downright elite for a second baseman. He's had a hell of a bad run recently, but a guy with his max-effort swing and contact rate will regress to his career BABIP levels soon. While he doesn't have elite power upside, his 17 steals this season (to say nothing of his 5 homers) reflect more upside than you might think at first. I love him against Elias at home.

Robinson Cano - FD 2400 DK 3700
Chase Utley - FD 2300 DK 3100
The bargain basement duo. Our projection system likes both of these guys, ascribing some significant portion of their poor fantasy performance this season to simple bad luck. Both have fairly tough match-ups today, and I'd say the upside is somewhat limited. But on a points per dollar and opportunity basis, both look like safe cash game plays from where I am sitting.

Also considered: Ben Zobrist.

 

Shortstop

Carlos Correa - FD 3000 DK 4100
It sorta feels like we're buying high on Correa - his 2 homers in his first 16 major league at bats are obviously not indicative of any sort of sustainable power level. He is an elite offensive talent for the position, though, and he showed an incredibly advanced approach in AAA this year that implies that some sort of major league success even at such a young age is possible. At a position almost totally devoid of offensive talent, he's as close to an upside play as we have at this point.

Alcides Escobar - FD 2300 DK 3600
Marcus Semien - FD 2200 DK 3200
Brad Miller - FD 2300 DK 3300
Your daily dose of cheap SS. Our projection system likes each of these guys just based on price an opportunity. I like Escobar best for safety and Miller best of upside, with Semien being a blend of both.

Also considered: Brandon Crawford.

 

Third base

Mike Moustakas - FD 2400 DK 3300
With an .856 OPS against right handed pitching this season, Mike Moustakas has kind of broken out. Lackey is basically a league average pitcher at this point, and Moustakas presents a good amount of upside and safety batting out of the two hole against him. A fine play in all formats.

Joey Gallo - FD 3200 DK 3400
If you're in a boom or bust sort of mood, Joey Gallo makes Chris Davis look like Wade Boggs. Gallo's a true 80 power guy who has posted .300-.400 ISOs at every step along the way, but the 39% strike out rate might frankly be legit. He can't be considered for 50/50s and double ups. But! Large tournaments? Absolutely. Phil Hughes' strike out rate and xFIP have gone back to pre-2013 levels, and coupling his renewed low K rate with his 34% groundball rate means Gallo will be in primed position to put some balls in the seats.

Martin Prado - FD 2600 DK 3500
Prado's not a phenomenal upside play, but he is an .818 OPS guy against left handed pitching this season, which is nearly identical to his career numbers. De La Rosa actually hasn't been horrible this year - his 5.53 ERA is probably not doing his actual talent level justice. Still, he's very likely a below league average pitcher, which should be all Prado needs to have a high floor in this one.

Anthony Rendon - FD 3400 DK 4700
Just a Taylor Jungmann thing again. Rendon's been close to platoon neutral over the course of his career, and Rendon makes a logical part of any Nationals stack if you go in that direction.

 

Outfield

Note: As always there are a ton of decent cheap plays at outfield tonight. If you want to check out who are projection system likes, you can grab a free three day trial. Here are some other elite plays.

George Springer - FD 3600 DK 4600
The young Springer cuts his K rate by 6% and raises his BB% by 8% against left handed pitching, and is on pace for the 20/30 season he looked like he'd be when he was coming up. His .900 OPS against left handed pitching this season points to the player he could (and might already) be, and he's going to be one of the highest upside plays against left handed pitching at these prices until his price rises into the elite levels where it likely belongs.

Giancarlo Stanton - FD 5400 DK 5600
I wrote this about Stanton the last time he was facing a lefty:

Stanton is slugging .825 against lefties this season, and yeah, that won't continue, but the 25 year old masher does have a godly .607 SLG against lefties over the course of his young and illustrious career. Grabbing him against an unproven commodity like Chris Rusin is basically printing money, and on a day where you'll save at pitching, he's basically a must play.

Giancarlo went ahead and put one in the seats, and has 5 homers in his last 6 games. Jorge De La Rosa is a better bet than Chris Rusin, but Stanton's a talent on another planet.

Oswaldo Arcia - FD 2700 DK N/A
It's sort of a bummer that there aren't a lot of great ways to take advantage of the Nick Martinez sweepstakes, but Oswaldo Arcia could be an interesting off-beat play. Arcia has a .236 ISO against right handed pitching in his young career, but his triple slash line is greatly dampened by his raw approach and high strike out rate. That's where Nick Martinez comes in. His 5.43 K/9 is the 12th worst in the league among qualified pitchers, and Arcia has upside through the roof in this one.

Curtis Granderson - FD 3100 DK 3800
Our projection system has stuck with the Grandy Man through the thin moments this season, and it's paid off in the last week. Granderson's one of the poster-children platoon guys over the course of his career, putting up an OPS .154 points higher against right handed pitching. Again, Foltynewicz is a 4.50 xFIP guy. Hardly a major league pitcher. Granderson's got immense upside here, even if he's got a bad floor to go with it.

Angel Pagan - FD 2200 DK 3500
You won't confuse Pagan for an elite upside play or anything, but you can grab a guy who bets 3rd at a bare minimum salary against a below league average pitcher in Rubby De La Rosa. It's a positive platoon spot for Pagan, as he's been .050 OPS points better against right handed pitching in his career. Huge floor here, if you want to grab Pagan and spend up elsewhere.
 

Also considered: Carlos Gomez, Brandon Moss, Joc Pederson.

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