Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 6/22/15

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Pitchers

Michael Pineda - FD 10100 DK 9300
There are two pretty obvious pitching situations going on in today's short slate. The first is Pineda against a dreadful Phillies squad. I know they knocked Wacha around yesterday, but I wouldn't put too much stock into that. Blind squirrels and all. Pineda's put up two kinds of performances this season: Stud level ace stuff, or suicide watch stuff with very little in between. But I love the peripherals heading into this matchup. He's putting up an absurd 8:1 K:BB rate and rocking a 2.57 xFIP. Basically he's been one of the better pitchers in all of baseball this season. The Phillies rank 24th in the league against righty pitching this season and though they don't strike out a ton, they also aren't a big bopping bunch. Pineda's a big favorite for the win and comes at a discount compared to the guy below.

Clayton Kershaw - FD 12100 DK 12700
You will need to pay an arm and a leg for him today which becomes a little harder on a shorter slate as fitting other plays in and around the margins just becomes tougher. Kershaw's had trouble paying his price tag in some starts thanks to a lowered strand rate and an increased BABIP as compared to his career averages. The 11.81 K/9 is still completely elite and his 2.13 xFIP is about as low as you'll see. He's run a little bad and that can kill him when the prices are this high. I think Kershaw is more a tournament play for me today considering the opponent in the Cubs. They strike out a ton at 23.7% but also fill that in with a great deal of power. Things can go wrong for Kershaw quick in this one and he doesn't have much room for error with these prices.

 

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Catchers

Yan Gomes - FD 2300 DK 3400
Ooh, I'm counting on him returning to the lineup today to face the lefty Kyle Ryan. Ryan's a sack of pitching garbage striking out only 4.66 per nine and holding an xFIP in the high 4's. Gomes has struggled with injuries this season and is striking out at an untenable 27.4% clip. He's running bad in BABIP, but that doesn't tell the whole story of his .515 OPS. But you are getting him basically free and he has a 137 wRC+ and .817 OPS for his career against lefties. It's a risk for sure, but the historical platoons help me sleep a little better recommending him.

Victor Martinez - FD 3000 DK 3600
I was a day early on V-MArt, putting him in the picks for Saturday when Sunday ended up being his big return. Sigh. Such is DFS. He murdered the Yankees on Sunday going 3-6 with a home run and four RBIs. It was a monster and goes a long way to showing he's back from injury. Not as great a matchup against Trevor Bauer, but Martinez is very patient and tough to strikeout. That's a problem for Bauer who struggles with control.

 

 

First base

Logan Morrison - FD 2300 DK 3800
I just love that he hits leadoff. No other first baseman has such an honor and it goes a long way to upping his expectation because he makes up for some downside by grabbing an extra bit of plate appearance expectation. Morrison's no great shakes as a hitter, but getting to the dish more than his first base brethren goes a long way. Solid matchup against Joe Blanton.

Carlos Santana - FD 3400 DK 4300
Santana is much better for his career against lefty pitching. He's put up a .365 wOBA and 136 wRC+ in that split which represents a big difference between what he does from the left side of the plate. He's facing Kyle Ryan who, as I mentioned with Gomes, sucks. With Santana you are getting a three true outcomes type of dude. He walks more than he strikes out and needs to hit for power to become relevant. The latter piece has been a struggle this season, but his patience makes him a solid cash game play.

 

Second base

Brian Dozier - FD 3900 DK 5000
Dozier's putting together a solid season thanks to a big bump in his ISO. That probably won't sustain, but he's in a great spot against John Danks today. Dozier crushes lefties for his career with a 138 wRC+ and .863 OPS against that split. He lives to face southpaws and John Danks could be in some trouble today (most days). Dozier will cost a little more, but hitting leadoff with this kind of platoon advantage is more than worth. Getting close for me on DraftKings especially with the pitching situation but there's upside.

Robinson Cano - FD 2300 DK 4200
I don't do this a lot, that's more a James thing. But I wrote this about Cano yesterday and I really think the thought process applies almost word for word today.
"We are well beyond the "it's awkward" thing with Robbie and into the full on, "we should break up" stage. And yet I just can't quit this guy. Look, I know what you are going to say. "He stinks." You wouldn't be incorrect with this statement. And yet I keep looking at some of the underlying numbers and I'm not totally convinced he's cooked. The batted ball profile is much in line with his career numbers. So it's not like he's all of sudden grounding out all over the place. His strikeouts are up for sure and the walks are down. Those aren't great signs. BABIP down some and the ISO's off a cliff. It's that last number that's killing him. At these prices, hitting third in the lineup, you've mitigated most of the risk. He's a punt play now and if another random second baseman popped up and hit third for the Mariners I'd probably be recommending that guy too. That's kind of the way I view Cano at this point. Argh, I promised myself I wouldn't write this much. Cano keeps screwing me even when he's not playing."

Consider Howie Kendrick

 

Shortstop

Francisco Lindor - FD 2200 DK 3800
As a switch hitter this early in his career it's a little tough telling which side Lindor prefers (if you know, chime in here for sure). The Indians seem content with hitting him in the two hole and he's been pretty *meh in a short time. I'm willing to keep buying on the lineup placement and some modest minor league success. Shortstop is that kind of position. Don't spend too much but get guys who at least stand to see the plate.

Didi Gregorius - FD 2600 DK 3500
Would love if he hit second in the order again today. If he's dropped back down to the 6th or 7th slot then forget about him. Gregorius isn't a good hitter or anything. But alas again, this is shortstop.

 

Third base

Chase Headley - FD 2500 DK 3900
As long as he's hitting second in the order and the price stays stagnated you are going to see the guy in these picks. Today he faces Kevin Correia who for his career hasn't managed to strike out more than six batters per nine. Headley's a ho-hum play who wouldn't show up here if not for the batting order placement. But alas, there he is and coming at near punt prices makes for an safe enough play considering the advantage the Yankees have today.

Trevor Plouffe - FD 2800 DK 4000
Much like his teammate Dozier, Plouffe is a dude who's put up some extreme platoon splits for his career. He is vastly better against southpaws, so much so that his price stays down in the short term because of his struggles against righties. Plouffe is a career .800 OPS guy against lefties and that's more than sufficient at these prices against John Danks. Not a fantastic hitter's park for Plouffe, but the matchup makes up for it.

Consider Justin Turner

 

Outfield

Yasiel Puig - FD 3700 DK 4000
I know Tsuyoshi Wada's been solid this season, but man I like Puig in this matchup. He's a platoon neutral guy for his career so he doesn't get a huge bump facing the lefty. But he's hitting leadoff for the Dodgers and has had success in this split this season. For my money, I'll take the power expectation out of the leadoff spot in a ballpark that plays well above average righty power.

Anthony Gose - FD 2300 DK 3100
Not a prototypical leadoff hitter in that he doesn't ever take walks and strikes out all the time. But the Tigers appear willing to keep him in that slot because of the speed. He will run when on base and the stolen bases add a little bit of upside to his profile. No power to speak of, but he's hitting in front of one of the best hitters in baseball in Miggy. The price on DraftKings is crazy cheap considering his slot in the order.

Nelson Cruz - FD 3300 DK 4900
Seth Smith - FD 2300 DK 3800
Mark Trumbo - FD 2600 DK 3900
Our system really wants you stacking against Joe Blanton today. The prices on many of the Mariners have come down in the short term and you are getting them facing a low-K pitcher. The ballpark does no favors, but you are getting all of these guys at a discount against a suspect arm

 

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