Nascar picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

    Chris Durell

    Daily Fantasy Nascar Picks
    Toyota Save Mart 350

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    Want to see how these picks and more fit into lineups for the Toyota Save Mart 350? Chris is selling his DraftKings lineup plus a cheatsheet for $5. Just click the link below. This is a separate service than our traditional monthly membership.

    Toyota Save Mart 350

    Sonoma Raceway - Sonoma, CA

    After a week holiday NASCAR returns for some road course action at Sonoma Raceway. In the previous 10 years there has been 10 different winners. Can you say Parity? There will be a lot of teams coming into this race looking to book their ticket into the Chase for the Sprint Cup playoffs which should make for an exciting race to watch. Track position is absolutely key here as their are minimal passing opportunities. Pay very close attention to qualifying this week as no driver in the previous 5 years that averages a starting position outside the Top 20 has averaged a finishing position inside the Top 20. The restarts at Sonoma can be a recipe for disaster and multi car crashes as drivers make their own passing lanes trying to gain positions before the cars get spread out. It is usually the finesse drivers who are easier on the tires in the long runs who come out on top here. Below I will point out my favorite plays broken down by Draftkings Salary Tiers.

    Tier 1 Targets (DK Price $11,000-$13,900)

    Jeff Gordon - $11,300
    Vegas Odds - 6/1
    Sprint Cup Standings – 10th
    Qualified - 5th
    My mother would be proud of me on this day. I mentioned her favorite driver at the top of my article. Well this week is definitely a week I target the #24 team. In the past 5 years Gordon has finished in the Top 10 every time and the Top 5 in 4 of the races. He also holds 5 career wins at the track. He is one of the drivers looking to get that win that will lock him into the Chase Playoffs. Add the fact he is the 6th most expensive driver on Draftkings and you have yourself a #1 pick.

    Jimmie Johnson - $13,100
    Vegas Odds - 11/1
    Sprint Cup Standings – 5th
    Qualified - 13th
    When making a Stars & Scrubs GPP lineup this week Jimmie would be a great choice for your first star. He is the only other driver besides Gordon to record 5 Top 10's in the previous five years. He also has a win in that time. Jimmie can win anywhere and barring bad luck should finish inside the Top 10 again this year.

    Martin Truex Jr. - $11,200
    Vegas Odds - 7/1
    Sprint Cup Standings - 2nd
    Qualified - 12th
    Truex comes into this race as the hottest racer in the sport. He has 7 straight Top 10 finishes with a win mixed in there. He comes to Sonoma with a win and 2 Top 10's in the previous 5 starts here. Hard to pass him up this week as the 8th most expensive driver on Draftkings. A perfect fit for your cash games.

    Tier 2 Targets (DK Price $8900-$10,900)

    Carl Edwards - $10,500
    Vegas Odds - 11/1
    Sprint Cup Standings - 14th
    Qualified - 14th
    Another guy coming back to Sonoma with a good record over his past 5 years. Carl has recorded a win and 3 Top 5 finishes in that time. His form is fairly decent having not finished outside the Top 20 in his previous 5 races. Another solid choice for cash games with the winning upside for GPP's as well, and who doesn't wanna see another back flip?

    Clint Bowyer - $8900
    Vegas Odds - 13/1
    Sprint Cup Standings - 17th
    Qualified - 6th
    I just can't get away from the value Bowyer presents in his 20th ranked salary on Draftkings. He hasn't has the greatest year to date but has been consistently around the Top 20 and has 2 Top 10's in his last 5 races. He has also has had success here at Sonoma where he has recorded a win and 4 Top 10 finishes in his previous 5 years here. I can see Bowyer being one of the highest owned drivers this week so I wil be mostly using him in Cash Games.

    Tier 3 Targets (DK Price $7500-$8800)

    AJ Allmendinger - $8300
    Vegas Odds - 10/1
    Sprint Cup Standings - 22nd
    Qualified - 1st
    Another value when you compare Vegas odds with Draftkings salary. He started 2nd here last year but got in a wreck and finished at the back. He averages a starting position of 10.3 in the previous 4 years and if he can avoid the carnage Sonoma presents in the corners he is capable of winning and punching his ticket to the Chase. At $8300 he is a great addition to a GPP lineup.

    Tier 4 Target (DK Pricing $7000-$7400)

    David Gilliland - $7400
    Vegas Odds - 501/1
    Sprint Cup Standings - 29th
    Qualified - 28th
    I am going back to the well with Gilliland after my scrub play didn't pan out last time. To get Jimmie in a lineup with another driver over $10,000 you will need to fit a Tier 4 driver in your lineup. Out of all the drivers below $7400, Gilliland has the best average finish(20.4) at Sonoma in the previous 5 years.

    ***Combined Practice Top 10***
    1. #15 Clint Bowyer (95.745 mph)
    2. #9 Sam Hornish Jr. (95.308 mph)
    3. #41 Kurt Busch (95.273 mph)
    4. #19 Carl Edwards (95.264 mph)
    5. #18 Kyle Busch (95.065 mph)
    6. #47 AJ Allmendinger (94.956 mph)
    7. #24 Jeff Gordon (94.862 mph)
    8. #16 Greg Biffle (94.843 mph)
    9. #78 Martin Truex Jr. (94.822 mph)
    10. #95 Micheal McDowell (94.705 mph)
    For a full list of Practice #1 & #2 speeds click HERE

    ***Qualifying Top 10***
    1. #47 AJ Allmendinger
    2. #41 Kurt Busch
    3. #20 Matt Kenseth
    4. #42 Kyle Larson
    5. #24 Jeff Gordon
    6. #15 Clint Bowyer
    7. #14 Tony Stewart
    8. #13 Casey Mears
    9. #55 David Ragan
    10. #2 Brad Keselowski
    For a complete list of the qualifying order click HERE

    Final Thoughts
    Allmendinger showed why many call him the best road racer coming into this one. He was fast in practice and got the pole position for the race. He will have an opportunity early to get out front and lead some laps and if he can avoid trouble this year should be there at the end. Bowyer was also fast in both practices and gets a nice starting position inside the top 10. As always the #24 car of Jeff Gordon was fast in practice and starts 5th. He has the most wins here career and will be looking to be up front come the end of the race. There is a lot of value this week with Draftkings not bumping prices for the road racing experts. Take advantage and get multiple lineups in the GPP's this week.

    Want to see how these picks and more fit into lineups for the Toyota Save Mart 350? Chris is selling his DraftKings lineup plus a cheatsheet for $5. Just click the link below. This is a separate service than our traditional monthly membership.

    Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA, PGA, and of course NASCAR. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any NASCAR questions or how he copes with the winters up north.


    image sources

    • 2048px-NASCAR_practice: By U.S. Air Force photo by Larry McTighe [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons

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