Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 6/27/15
Masahiro Tanaka - FD 9400 DK 10600
Tanaka hasn't pitched much this season, but when he has, the numbers have looked real good. His peripherals are on point with a 5.5:1 K:BB ratio and high 2's xFIP. He's super efficient from a statistical standpoint though his style does lend itself to higher pitch counts and earlier exits than befits someone else with his numbers. Today though he has a chance for some high strikeout upside. The Astros strike out more than 25% of the time against righties this season and even though they are an above average team overall in terms of wOBA, this is a great matchup for Tanaka.
Matt Harvey - FD 10500 DK 11100
Though I think some people would label him a disappointment this season, I'm a fan of his numbers. The xFIP is just a hair above three and he's striking out about a batter an inning. He limits the walks at only 1.5 per nine and faces a Reds team that's about average against righties. I much prefer Tanaka for the same prices so don't assume these guys are exactly in the same value tier. But Harvey is a fine enough play today.
Victor Martinez - FD 3400 DK 4200
I know he only qualifies at catcher on FanDuel, which in itself is silly, but hey we don't make the rules do we? We just exploit them. V-Mart just crushes lefty pitching and over the last year plus he has an OPS over 1.100 and an absurd .473 wOBA. BABIP's helped, but only to make the numbers unreal rather than just awesome. He love targeting bats against John Danks and he won't be the last Tiger you see on the list today.
Buster Posey - FD 4300 DK 4500
Sure, Chris usin is a big ground ball guy, and the ballpark doesn't do anyone any power favors, this is still a solid matchup for Posey out of the catcher's slot. He's much better for his career against lefty pitching and even i the last season or so Posey's put up an OPS over .800 with a wOBA of .360 all while running a little bad in the BABIP category. Posey will definitely cost you some today but that's almost okay with the matchup and his career numbers. I like V-Mart better for the bigger money but Posey's in a good spot.
Wilson Ramos - FD 2900 DK 4300
Much better for his career against lefties, Ramos is a cheap play on FanDuel (I'd much prefer Posey on DK) in the better side of his split. He's had a .785 career OPS against southpaws and Adam Morgan's had an inauspicious time in the minor leagues. Ramos is the play if you are looking to cost a bit in order to fit a bigger tag pitcher on this earlier slate of games.
Jose Abreu - FD 3500 DK 5100
Kyle Ryan is a dumpster fire in the form of a pitcher and Abreu should be able to take full advantage today. Ryan strikes out less than 4/5 batters per nine on the season with a high 4's xFIP. Abreu is an elite hitter against lefties since the beginning of last year with a 1.000 OPS and .425 wOBA. He's legit of course and will be a real tough out for Ryan. Though Abreu does strike out, he also has an 11% walk rate in this split. Tough to get away from this price on FD though you will have to pay for the upside on DK.
Lucas Duda - FD 2900 DK 4200
Speaking of terrible pitchers, Michael Lorenzen is right in the Kyle Ryan club. Lorenzen strikes out about five and a half batters per nine and walks almost as many. The xFIP is creeping toward five and he's ripe for the picking. Too bad the Mets don't have much to offer, but Duda is definitely in play. He has a 147 wRC+ against righties in the last year though the numbers are better so far this season against lefties. I'm not buying the recent performance as much and am more willing to grab him in this side of the split.
David Ortiz - FD 2900 DK 3900
The batter ball profile's starting to come back into line with his career numbers and lo and behold the power's starting to come back as well. He's still coming very cheap thanks to some power issues early in the season as well as a lower BABIP. Matt Andriese isn't a big K guy and though the ballpark doesn't help power for lefties, I do like the matchup.
Consider Pedro Alvarez
Ian Kinsler - FD 3400 DK 4100
Price has ticked up over the last couple of days so you aren't buying him at the extreme discount we saw earlier in the week. But that doesn't mean he's priced out of play yet. Kinsler faces John Danks and that's a good thing for hitters. Though the recent performance doesn't back it up, Kinsler has been significantly better for his career against lefty pitching. He has a career 132 wRC+ and high .800's OPS against that platoon. Again, this isn't the sick deal from only a few days ago, but still worth a look.
Howie Kendrick - FD 2600 DK 3900
Would love for him to second in the order again today. If Puig sits again that may very much be the case for Kendrick with the lineup slot as his primary value add. Kendrick is merely an average hitter though if he's sandwiched between Pederson and Gonzalez against a pitcher like Tom Koehler you can definitely give him a look on this slate.
Consider Neil Walker
Ian Desmond - FD 2500 DK 3900
I've said it a couple of tother times this week, and it bears repeating. Desmond is a risk/reward play who we want to target against low strikeout pitchers. Adam Morgan is one such guy. A low K guy from the minors, the strikeout is Desmond's primary issue. He goes down on strikes a lot and rarely takes walks. He's a smidge better against lefties for his career, but it isn't a huge gap. Still coming near punt prices on FanDuel and cheap on DraftKings. If he can hit in the top six of the lineup, this is a clear play. It get's weirder if he's lower than that.
Alexei Ramirez - FD 2200 DK 3500
Hit second in the order last night and that would give him a huge lift in terms of expectation against the lefty Ryan. The Cuban Missile's primary function is having a cool nickname. After that, there's not too much to hang any kind of hat on. But as with most shortstops, we want to grab guys on the cheap the cheap hitting high in the order against weaker arms. Look, I can't sell you on his offensive prowess at all. But let's hope he hits second in the order again.
Evan Longoria - FD 2900 DK 3800
Whenever he's playing a middle of the road lefty you want to get on Longoria. He's still well above average against this split with an .836 OPS and 136 wRC+ against southpaws for the last year. That's down from his career numbers which isn't a fantastic trend. But he faces Wade Miley who is only a 2:1 K:BB guy with a mid 4's xFIP. Longoria is coming very cheap for a middle of the order hitter in an advantageous split. Again, he isn't the lefty killer from earlier in his career but the price reflects the dip and he's a solid value.
Adrian Beltre - FD 2900
Evan Longoria - FD 3100
Obviously would rather have both of thee guys against a lefty, but are coming so cheap against Scott Copeland in a great hitter's park. Both Beltre and Gallo are in the wrong side of their split here, but are coming at lower than market level prices and Copeland's K rate is so low I'm not worried about them getting crushed by a hard-throwing righty. Copeland is an extreme groundball guy, but does allow a higher LD%. Beltre is still above average against righties with an .800 OPS over the last year. Not elite, but gets the job done at these prices.
Consider Pablo Sandoval
Rajai Davis - FD 2900 DK 4400
Said this about him yesterday and very little has changed:
He usually finds his way to the top of the lineup against lefties. Let's hope that's the case against Rodon today. Rajai's an extreme splits guy who fairs much, much better against lefty pitching. He has a 122 wRC+ and .812 OPS against that split for his career and should basically only play against southpaws if anyone has a clue. The Tigers seem to understand this.
Shin-Soo Choo - FD 2600
Mitch Moreland - FD 2600
Both coming very cheap in the early game against Scott Copeland. Choo's close to a must start on FanDuel at that price from the leadoff slot. I don't love how the walks are down this season as his OBP was one of his great strengths. He's not seeing as many free passes. But the K expectation is lowered against Copeland who doesn't possess even above average stuff in that regard. Moreland in much the same boat though his .208 ISO this year looks tempting in such a great hitter's park.
Avisail Garcia - FD 2400 DK 4100
Not a guy we talk about a great deal around here, but maybe we should. He's tuned up lefties over the last season or so with a .900 OPS in that split. Should hit in the top four of the order in this game against Kyle Ryan and a great guy to buy on spec. I guarantee very few others will be on him as he doesn't rate out as a top name on any slate. But he's had success in this platoon.
Consider Dodgers' OF depending on who they start.