Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings 7/7/15

Hey there! It's been a few days since I've taken the reins on our nightly picks, and I hope your Independence Day weekend was as much fun as mine was. Hopefully you didn't gain independence from some of your money while playing the way I did. Gulp.

Full disclaimer - this is a massive slate, and there's no way I could ever possibly list every decent play today. So, I'll do my best in highlighting whom I believe to be the elite plays. If you want the rest? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster.

 

Pitchers

Corey Kluber - FD 11000 DK 11200
If our projection system is to be believed, someone should probably throw a net over you if you don't play Kluber in your 50/50s and double ups tonight. Kluber is one of the very highest guys on a points per dollar basis, and on FanDuel, he lets you invest a huge portion of your salary at a great multiplier. The reasons here are pretty straightforward. Kluber is an ace's ace, regardless of what his ERA tells you. The man has a 2.56 xFIP over the last two seasons, and pairs the league's 5th best K/9 with a sub-2 BB/9 (the best number of any pitcher in the top 5 in k/9). And, sure, there are some other elite pitchers going today. Two of them are pitching against each other (Cueto and Scherzer) and neither of those fellas gets to pitch against the Houston Astros. If you aren't familiar with their ineptitude, the Astros have an historically bad 25.9% K rate against right handed pitching this year. They're also trotting out the young and erratic Vincent Velasquez. From front to back, Kluber is easily my guy for cash games.

Tyson Ross - FD 8800 DK 9300
Francisco Liriano - FD 10200 DK 10300
If you want more of an off-beat play, our system thinks either of these guys could provide outsized returns today. While I'll go ahead and say I like Ross better from a pure talent perspective (the mix of K rate and GB% are just ridiculous), I think Liriano might have the very highest upside of any pitcher on a star-studded slate. There are 9 reasons, and they wear sand and occasionally camouflage uniforms, and they live in a perfect climate, and they are all super f***king rich, and... where was I? Oh yeah. The Padres! The reason is the Padres. They have the third highest K rate (24.2%!) against left handed pitching this season, and they also have the league's 5th worst wOBA against lefties. They are a dream match-up. There's definitely some risk here since they're not playing in Petco, but again, you're trying to catch lightning in a bottle here. I like em both.

Really want to go crazy in a big tournament?

Brett Anderson - FD 7900 DK 7600
What year is this? Yep, I've just recommended Brett Anderson. This is a risky play. That was just for you, if you're new. But let me make a quick case. First of all, Anderson's coming off two dynamite starts against two teams that are both in the top 6 in terms of wOBA against left handed pitching. He averaged 18.5 FanDuel fantasy points over those two starts. He has huge upside pedigree, and if he's turning into anything like the pitcher he used to be, his price will keep climbing. And the price is really what drives it. The Phils are basically a league average team against lefties (though that doesn't control the fact that they're worse on the road away from their sweet home park). An additional perk here is the ancient Chad Billingsley. The man is only 30, but he has a 60 year old arm at this point. His 3.43 K/9 is an utter embarrassment, and the Dodgers should have their way here. Anderson is in a much better spot than usual to grab the W, and I like him as a home run play.

 

Just killing time until fantasy football season? Fantasy Pros has a pretty cool mock drafting software you can check out!

 

Catchers

Yasmani Grandal - FD 3000 DK 3300
I think I've recommended Grandal every time he's faced a right handed pitcher for about a month. In that time, he's increased his wOBA against right handed pitching from .898 to .917. He's batting clean-up in a tough lineup. And his price hasn't climbed at all. What the hell is going on, here? Tonight he gets perhaps his best match-up in a while as well - the desperately awful Chad Billingsley. Grandal is such a great play in all formats that I won't give you so-so plays that don't live up to him. I'll give you some off-board guys that could catch lightning in a bottle.

Salvador Perez - FD 2200 DK 3400
Salvador Perez is a 25 year old catcher with a career .810 OPS against left handed pitching. That's not a fluke. He's facing the left handed Matt Moore, who has big time pedigree, but looked terrible in Spring Training before being sidelined with injury until his first start back a week ago. And in that first start, he totally sucked. If you spend up for Kluber, Perez is a high floor, high ceiling play at a pretty lousy position.

Derek Norris - FD 2600 DK 3200
Norris is a higher upside, lower floor play than Perez. The big wild card here would be the strike-outs. Liriano could totally cut him down and make this play moot. But! Liriano also can make mistakes up. And Norris has a fantastic track record against left handers for his career. He's put together an .848 OPS on the back of a tremendous .189 ISO. He's batting behind a couple of other righties that could have a decent game as well. I wouldn't touch him in a 50/50 or double-up, but I wouldn't mind taking a shot in a big tournament.

Keep a close eye on Michael McKenry. If the righty gets a start against lefty Andrew Heaney in Coors, there could be some very cheep fireworks on display. Check for the Rockies' lineup as game time approaches.
 

First base

Jose Abreu - FD 3600 DK 5500
Abreu hasn't been quite the beast he was last year, but he's still damned good, and still has upside like you read about. The man has a 1.018 OPS against left handed pitching over his first two major league seasons, and he happens to be facing a left hander in Matt Boyd who did not record a single out before being pulled from his last start. DID NOT RECORD A SINGLE OUT. Abreu has huge upside, and a higher floor than most sluggers do today. Update: Doubront is starting for the Jays. Abreu still a great play

Adrian Gonzalez - FD 2900 DK 3800
A close 1a to Abreu, just because the price has gotten truly stupid. I get that there's been a tailing off from his early season MVP candidacy, but the man has hit 2 home runs in the last 4 days, and owns a .923 OPS against northpaws this season. And, again, Billingsley! Another fantastic high-floor high-upside play, and a great cheap buy if you pay up for Kluber or one of the other aces.

Edwin Encarnacion - FD 3900 DK 4400
A considerably worse play on a points per dollar basis, but E5 has the second highest raw points projection at the position after Abreu. So, you should probably just play Abreu. But, if you wanted to go in a different direction, Encarnacion is interesting. He's a pretty dramatic platoon guy over the course of his career (.060 OPS points better against lefties) and Quintana is affected by the handedness of the opposing batters as much or more than any pitcher in baseball this season. He's allowed an .814 OPS against righties while pinning lefties down to a .575 number. I like both of the above guys a lot better, but Encarnacion will be a big play for teams who save up on pitching.

Consider: David Ortiz. Haren leaves balls up. Ortiz puts balls out. Just sayin'. Tons of people will play Pujols as well, but the price looks steep from here. Still, the man can mash a homer.

 

Second base

For such a big slate, 2nd base is just awful. I'm going to go ahead and suggest that you try and grab a cheap guy and get the heck away from the position. You have been warned. Here are some guys to consider.

Johnny Giavotella - FD 2900 DK 3400
Are we excited yet? In Giavotella you're basically getting two things. First, he's hitting in a terrific park (Coors) against a lousy pitcher (Chad Bettis). Next, he bats at the top of the lineup for some reason, giving him lots of chances to get on base in front of dudes who can actually hit. While Coors shouldn't help him all that much, it will help the guys behind him. If he can get on base, it could wind up being a nice day from a counting stats perspective.

Ben Zobrist - FD 3300 DK 4200
In terms of raw talent, I'll take Zobrist above any guy at the position. He just doesn't have that strong a points per dollar projection, and I don't personally see the reason to spend up on him when there's so much upside at other positions. So why bother? Well, if you have the money, Zobrist has been one of the most reliable plays at any position relative to his peers all season. He's struck out in just 8.6% of his at bats while walking 12.4% of the time. That's phenomenal. He's got an .804 OPS while unluckily getting by on a BABIP that's .023 points lower than his career levels. He's facing a guy in Nathan Eovaldi who's basically league average, and in a great hitters' park in Yankee Stadium. So, there's your case. Still, I'll probably just go cheap.

Kolten Wong - FD 2900 DK 3700
Keep an eye on who is going to start for the Cubs in the late game. As of this writing, it's not available anywhere. But if it's a right hander, Kolten Wong is very attractively priced. The 24 year old is .137 OPS points better against right handed pitching, and is very reasonably priced. You'll have to keep an eye out closer to game time.

 

Shortstop

Troy Tulowitzki - FD 4400 DK 4800
On a points per dollar basis, Tulo might be the best big money play going tonight. It feels a little weird to pay this much money for a dude who isn't topping an .850 OPS this season. But you aren't getting his season line, here. You're getting him against a lefty (albeit a non-terrible one) in Coors Field. Tulo has an 1.051 OPS against lefties at home for his career, and a better number than that this season. Chances are good he'll be out of my price range (I haven't quite sat down with lineups for tomorrow yet), but if you go cheap at pitcher, he makes for a great play.

Jimmy Rollins - FD 2400 DK 3100
Elvis Andrus - FD 2200 DK 3600
Starlin Castro - FD 2200 DK 3600
After Tulo? Shortstop is a damned mess. These guys are the cheap options against bad pitching that you can run out there today. Rollins is the upside guy, and Andrus and Castro are the high floor plays.

 

Third base

Kris Bryant - FD 3500 DK 4800
Kris Bryant is seven feet tall. Okay, he isn't. But his legend continues to build. The game's best prospect has turned his 80 power into total devastation of left handed pitching in his first 50 major league at bats, as his 1.087 OPS vs. lefties would attest. Tonight, he'll face Tyler Lyons. Lyons' minor league numbers are actually not terrible, but I'll take FanGraphs' word for it when they ranked him as the Cardinals' 11th best asset under 27 (between Pete Kozma and Sean Maness). That is to say - you're looking at a league average player at the very best. While Bryant is still striking out too much, the upside here is undeniable. I'll take my chances if I have the money to spend at the position.

Adrian Beltre - FD 2600 DK 4100
Another great guy to pocket if you go expensive on pitching. Beltre has run ridiculously bad in terms of BABIP this season (.060 points off career levels, and more than that below his recently established levels in Texas). He's facing a guy in Robbie Ray who is pitching a full run and a half better than his xFIP would suggest he should be doing. Obviously there's some risk here if Beltre has simply turned old (as opposed to unlucky), but it's a worthwhile gamble from where I'm sitting.

Josh Donaldson - FD 4100 DK 5400
A God among us when it comes to hitting left handed pitching. Donaldson's OPS vs. lefties has taken a little bit of a haircut recently, but only because he was at levels that would have made him Pujols in his prime. Still, the Jays' resident hot-corner man has a .954 career OPS against left handed pitching, and he'll be facing the left handed Jose Quintana in a great hitters' park. With a 14.5% K rate against southpaws, he's got a significantly higher floor than the free-wheeling Bryant above, though you're obviously paying for it.

A hundred different directions: Beltre is my safety guy, and Bryant is my upside guy. Still, Joey Gallo has similar upside on a lesser price than Bryant. Matt Carpenter has a similar floor from a points per dollar perspective if the Cubs start a lefty in the late game.
 

Outfield

There are a million great cheap plays at outfield today. I can't list them all. Grab a free three day trial of our projection system if you're interested. Here are the bigger money plays we like.

Nelson Cruz - FD 3300 DK 4900
Cruz's overall line looks merely decent this season, but when you parse the data for his splits against lefties and righties, a hero emerges. Cruz has a Bondsian 1.321 OPS against left handed pitching this season, and he's facing the downright horrendous Kyle Ryan tonight. Ryan has managed just 15 Ks against 13 BBs in 27 IP this season. This might be one of the bigger lefty/righty mismatches of the season, and I'll be a buyer in all formats.

Josh Reddick - FD 2800 DK 4400
Reddick is like a watered down, left handed version of Nelson Cruz. Is that a compliment? It was meant to be. His overall line doesn't inspire any ballads of valor, but his .921 OPS against right handed pitching this season is fantastic for what you need to pay to play him. It's that pesky .459 OPS against lefties that does him in. The good news is that he will be facing right handed Nathan Eovaldi in this game. While Eovaldi isn't a terrible talent necessarily, he is far from an ace, and in a fantastic hitters' park for left handers, Reddick could do some serious damage.

Joc Pederson - FD 3300 DK 3700
Pederson has crushed righties this season, and 17 of his 20 homers have come against them. He also had a 30/30 season in the minors last year. That's a lot of upside to get for $3,300 on FanDuel. And again, Billingsley. Don't be surprised if Pederson winds up with the highest point total of every outfielder on the board, today.

Justin Upton - FD 2900 DK 4000
Matt Kemp - FD 2800 DK 3900
The one-two punch if you want to go off board against the left handed Liriano. Neither has been fantastic this season, but if you want to start two guys who will be barely started and could put up huge games, you might want to have a looksie. Liriano has looked human in his last two starts, and while I'm underwhelmed by these guys when compared with the guys above them, these are strictly big tournament plays that could wind up paying off if the chalks plays go all baseball(!) on you.

Also Considered: Carlos Gomez, Michael Brantley, Brandon Moss.

 

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