Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, Yahoo, Victiv, and DraftKings 7/20/15

Hey all! Monday's slate brings us the exact opposite of what we saw on Sunday. A short slate, and lots of bad pitching. Good times! In this article, I'll lay out a few guys at each position, but it won't be an exhaustive list of every good play. If you want the rest? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster.

 

Note: You can obviously play any of the Rockies guys against Nick Martinez today. He's one of the very worst pitchers in the league, in the toughest place to hit. I'm not going dwell here, though - feel free to choose some Rockies and do work.

Pitchers

Gio Gonzalez - FD 9400 DK 8100 Victiv Yahoo
Matt Harvey - FD 10500 DK 11100 Victiv Yahoo
It seems to me that the big question facing daily fantasy baseball players on Monday's slate will be: "Whom do I start in double ups - Gio, or Harvey?" Harvey, in spite of a few disastrous performances this season, still has a lot of notches in the axe he uses to cut down opposing teams. Sure, he's probably not fully recovered from surgery yet (at least command wise), but he's still striking out a guy an inning with a 3.30 xFIP. The issue is those pesky Nats. They're an above average team against right handed pitching, and won't make it super easy on Harvey to have a good outing. On the flip side, you have Gio Gonzalez. He's an erratic pitcher who's traded some strike-outs for groundballs this season, but he's still been effective enough if you've deployed him properly. Taking him against the Mets would be one such appropriate deployment. The Mets have paired the league's 7th lowest wOBA against left handed pitching with the 3rd highest K rate, making this a potentially huge start. The problem with either guy, of course, is that the other is pitching. These are easily the two best pitchers on the slate (considering Burnett has a tough match-up with the Royals), so you could even just split your cash game lineups between them. I'm honestly not sure what I'll do just yet.

An off beat punt might be Andrew Heaney. He was a legit prospect, and has been shredding squads out there. While the Sox are tough to strike out, they're in the bottom third of the league in terms of wOBA against left handers, and it's way harder to hit in Anaheim than it is to hit in Fenway. Just sayin'.

And even more off beat - Rubby De La Rosa! The peripherals are still there, even if he's been a disaster recently. The Marlins have the third lowest wOBA in the league against righties. Stranger things, and all.

 

By the way - we were reached out to by a new site that deals with all things betting. They have a good take on daily fantasy sports rules, if you're new to the whole thing.

Catchers

Yasmani Grandal - FD 3500 DK 3700 Victiv Yahoo 17
The man who sat atop this column from a $2,300 price tag to his current level has gotten it done against right handed pitching all season. Unfortunately, he's moved from a nightly must play to a guy you have to pick and choose when to play. Monday is one of those days. Matthew Wisler is a guy who has seen his K% take a nose dive since leaving AA ball in 2014, and he's currently sitting at a 6.52 K/9 in his last 100 innings of professional ball. And that's better than I could personally do, sure, but I'm not going to try and sneak my junk past Grandal. Yasmani has put up a ridiculous .940 OPS against right handed pitching this season, and should be primed to be a fantastic play here. I love him in all formats.

Kyle Schwarber - FD 2600 DK 3400 Victiv 4000 Yahoo 11
The man who put up a 1.000+ OPS across two levels in the minors this season has kept up the same routine in the bigs - striking out a ton, and crushing the ball when he puts a barrel on it. To that end, you'll never call Schwarber a safe play. At least not soon. But the man you may never have heard of is currently flexing some of the highest upside at the position, period. Today he'll face Michael Lorenzen, who's pathetic 47 Ks against 39 BB in 71 IP scream "I'M NOT A MAJOR LEAGUE PITCHER." For the left handed Schwarber, this is about as good as it's going to get for him in the bigs. Prepare for a potentially huge game, here.

 

First base

Anthony Rizzo - FD 3900 DK 5100 Victiv 5600 Yahoo 18
Adrian Gonzalez - FD 3800 DK 4200 Victiv Yahoo
You might be in a position tonight where you're deciding whether you want to stack more Cubs or Dodgers, which is kind of crazy, considering Nick Martinez is pitching in Coors. With these two big left handed sluggers, the story is basically the same. I favor Rizzo considerably because of the match-up and the park - it doesn't get a whole lot better than facing Lorenzen in Cinci. Still, grabbing Adrian against a worse than league average right hander is pretty attractive as well. Probably just makes sense to split the difference and play them equally.

Brandon Belt - FD 2800 DK 3500 Victiv 4900 Yahoo 15
A lot of people are going to be on Gonzo and Rizzo today, so if you want to bob while they're weaving, take a look at Brandon Belt. The man with the league's highest line drive rate and pile up hits and counting stats in a hurry... and he can also disappear completely. What I really love here is Ian Kennedy. He's leaving balls up in the zone, and giving up a ridiculous 2.13 HR/9 IP this season. To be clear - I do NOT think he's the best play on the board. Just a way to go a different direction if you want to catch lightning in a bottle.

 

Second base

Johnny Giavotella - FD 2300 DK 3000 Victiv 3600 Yahoo 14
If he qualified, Steven Wright would have the 4th worst wOBA in the majors. That's all you're seeing here. Well, that and the fact that Giavotella still gets to lead off in front of some great MLB hitters. Opportunity is the great underrated consideration in the world of daily fantasy baseball - batting first means more counting stats, and more plate appearances in general. Sure, Giavotella sucks. But on the minimum salary? He'll go on runs where he makes you happy every single night. I think this will be one of those games.

Robinson Cano - FD 3300 DK 3600 Victiv Yahoo
Our projection system isn't aware that Cano hit two home runs against Michael Pineda, but I am. In a vacuum, our system likes Cano against the right handed journeyman Alfredo Simon. I'm listing him here not because I think he'll be the very best option on a points per dollar basis, but you might be in a position where you actually have to spend up to get all the money in today. I think Cano is a nice high-floor way to get some chips in the table at 2nd base today.

Brandon Phillips makes an interesting upside play.

 

Shortstop

Xander Bogaerts - FD 2900 DK 3300 Victiv 4600 Yahoo 16
Bogaerts has shredded left handed pitching for a .867 OPS this season, bringing the 22 year old's career number up to .812. That's incredible for any position at that age, and downright absurd for a shortstop. As I wrote above, I actually like Heaney quite a bit today. But on a short slate, grabbing a hitter of Bogaerts' ability for less than $3,000 at an otherwise terrible position is going to be tough to pass up on.

Brad Miller - FD 2300 DK 3100 Victiv Yahoo 9
Brad Miller has quietly turned in to one of the highest upside performers at his position, and none of the daily fantasy baseball sites seem to have taken notice. The Mariners' lead-off man now has 8 homers and 9 steals at the midway point through the season, and has an .802 OPS against right handed pitching in 2015. And yes, he's terrible against left handed pitching. He'll occasionally get hit for if the other team pulls a lefty on him late. But in this contest against Alfredo Simon, I think he'll get a lot of opportunity to delight his owners in any fantasy format.

Erick Aybar - FD 2600 DK 3300 Victiv 4500 Yahoo 14
The Angels sandwich 3 great hitters between two pretty bad ones. We gave you Giavotella at 2B, and we'll give you Aybar at SS! He'll be the one who gets to bat after Calhoun, Trout, and Pujols get to wipe the floor with Steven Wright. If they haven't hit home runs, he should have some pretty sweet RBI opportunities at a very affordable price.

Also considered: How could you not consider Tulo? If you can afford him, taking him against Nick Martinez is awfully enticing, even at this prices. What's his upside here? 15 Fantasy points on FanDuel? More? I honestly have no idea - it will just be tough to afford him and other good expensive guys.
 

Third base

Todd Frazier - FD 3500 DK 4900 Victiv 5400 Yahoo 18
SO MUCH BAD PITCHING TODAY! If you have forgotten about Clayton Richard, or purposefully erased him from your memory, let me give you a refresher. His 4.10 K/9 is literally as bad as it gets in the majors. I guess the Cubs thought his 4.02 K/9 in AAA ball this year meant he was back to his old form? IDK. The Reds' All-Star third baseman has a .968 OPS against left handed pitching this season, and this is one of the bigger mismatches at any position today.

Evan Longoria - FD 2800 DK 4000 Victiv Yahoo 15
David Buchanan is arguably the singularly worst pitcher whose team actually wants him to pitch every 5th day. His 15 Ks against 15 BBs in 29 IP this season is just awful, no matter the excuse. Longoria, for his part, is no great shakes at hitting right handed pitching. But can he hit straight batting practice offerings to the point where he can pay off a $2,800 investment on FanDuel? It's a risk I'm willing to take. It's not the safest play by any means, but hitting in the favorable Citizen's Bank park tips the scales for me and makes this the play of the day at the position.

Adrian Beltre - FD 3900 DK 4300 Victiv 5000 Yahoo
The sites are doing their best to price you out of playing guys against terrible pitchers in Coors, but I'm willing to make a run at Beltre. Yes, Adrian has lost a little bat speed this season, and his best seasons might be behind us. Still, though - he's got a .178 ISO against left handed pitching this season, and his season line against southpaws would look pretty good if not for a BABIP .080 points below his recent levels. He's also not only hitting in Coors, he's hitting against the left handed Chris Rusin, who has just a 5.80 K/9 this season. I love Beltre as a big money option today.

 

Outfield

Rajai Davis - FD 2500 DK 3500 Victiv 4400 Yahoo 8
For what you have to pay for him, Davis represents a phenomenal deal any time you can get him against a left handed pitcher. He's not a power threat obviously, but he does have considerable upside when you consider the following:

1) He's a 30 steal a season guy.
2) He's got a .841 OPS against lefties.
3) He bats in front of some guys that might murder JA Happ.

Love him for 50/50s and big tournaments alike.

Joc Pederson - FD 3100 DK 3800 Victiv Yahoo 15
Pederson has cooled off considerably after his early season breakout, but that's just the thing - Pederson's "breakout" really happened last year. He's a guy with real, major league skills. He went for 30/30 last season, and can absolutely torture right handed pitching that's less than the very top tier. If you haven't gathered it by now, Matt Wisler qualifies. I'm going to rock Joc against righties until the price rises or we see some injury news.

Mike Trout - FD 5200 DK 5600 Victiv 6100 Yahoo 23
Carlos Gonzalez - FD 4500 DK 4100 Victiv 4500 Yahoo
I list these two guys together because the idea is similar. You're overpaying on a points per dollar basis for positively ridiculous upside. Both are in positive platoon spots (Trout's actually been better against RHP for his career, in case you didn't know), and both are up against guys who don't belong in the majors. I list Trout first even though Gonzalez is hitting against one of the world's worst in Coors just because he is just so much better in general, but I could really flip a coin and feel great about either - if you can afford them.

Christian Yelich - FD 3000 DK 3800 Victiv 5000 Yahoo 16
Yelich is something less than a stellar offensive player at this point in his career, but there's still a lot to like. He's a 10/20 guy again this season (or at least he's on pace to be one), and he's been almost .100 OPS points better against right handed pitching for his career. While I want to be a believer in Rubby de la Rosa, the fact remains that he's giving up hard hit balls in droves, and is particularly getting feasted upon by lefties. Throw in a great hitter's park in Arizona, and this is a pretty good high floor play from where I'm sitting.

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