Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, Yahoo and Victiv 7/29/15

It's a huge double slate going today and we're going to get you started with some plays to round out those lineups. Lots of solid pitchers going here so tread carefully, especially on the early slate.

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Pitchers

Early Slate
Look, here's the thing: Kluber, Archer, Liriano and King Felix are going on this early slate. One or more of them is going to have a great game because they are, in fact, great. The problem is that their prices are off the map and none of them have particularly good matchups. It's dicey to consider fading all four. But remember they are all facing above average teams in those splits and a lot can go wrong at these prices. The upside on each is limited. This is a long way to say, you should always consider these guys, but I have my reservations.

Jon Lester - FD 9500 DK 9100 Victiv Yahoo 54
Opponent- Col (Butler) R Park- @Chc
The Rockies no longer have Troy Tulowitzki. From an expert's opinion (some guy I talked to, not me) this makes them worse. Not to say one player is the crux of an entire team, but when one of the best hitters against lefties in all of the majors gets shipped off, you need to downgrade the whole squad. That's what I'm looking at for Lester here. The Rockies were already one of the worst teams in the league this season against lefty pitchers, striking out more than 23% of the time and ranking in the bottom third in terms of team wOBA. Lester, while not an ace, has solid peripherals with a low 3's xFIP. Great price and should be in line for the win.

Of all the big money guys, I think you can take a shot on Felix Hernandez because of the park and the D-Backs are the worst among the bunch against righties.

Late Slate
Tyson Ross - FD 8500 DK 10800 Victiv Yahoo 47
Opponent- NYM (Colon) R Park- @NYM
The good news on Ross is the K rate ranks among the best in the league. He's striking out almost ten batters per nine and rocks a 3.05 xFIP. And this is with a walk rate more than 4 per nine. You don't often see numbers like that, meaning when he's not walking batters there's very little opposing batters can do against him. The Mets are one of the worst teams in the league against righty pitching and the ballpark helps Ross a great deal here. This slate gets real weird after Kershaw and I actually don't think you need to spend all the way up for him today. Ross makes a nice middle point.

Garrett Richards - FD 8700 DK 9300 Victiv Yahoo 49
Opponent- Hou (McCullers) R Park- @Hou
I only like him from a tournament status because of the Astros' strikeout rate. Houston K's more than 24% of the time against righties and while you aren't getting Richards on a huge discount (he's struggled some this season) there's a case for him. If you are looking to grab some strikeout numbers with a hint of luck then I think he makes an okay spec play.

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Catchers

Early Slate
Kyle Schwarber - FD 3200 DK 3700 Victiv 4000 Yahoo 18
Opponent- Col (Butler) R Park- @Chc
He's a god among men and that's about all you need to know. At least where the BABIP is concerned of course. Schwarber looks like he has a bright future in front of him, but we can't ignore the luck factor when it comes to his early season returns. He's BABIP'ing at a cool .485 rate which clearly isn't sustainable. But our system doesn't factor in the early luck piece, just his projections going out and those are looking real good considering his price. The other big part of his projection is hitting second in the order. As long as he holds that down he'll come in over most catchers in terms of value.

Late Slate
Brian McCann - FD 3000 DK 3900 Victiv 4900 Yahoo 16
Opponent- Tex (Lewis) R Park- @Tex
Haven't written about McCann in a while as the price has been a little out of bounds for my liking. But he's rounding back into the discussion. McCann will never be a big BABIP guy because of the shifts and his plodding running style. But from a power perspective we should be running him out on the late slate against Colby Lewis. Lewis is a below average pitcher with a high flyball rate going in a power park. McCann, in and around the middle of the order, makes for an upside power play at catcher. The K rate this season is a little concerning, but that's less of an issue against an arm like Lewis.

Matt Wieters - FD 2500 DK 2900 Victiv 4400 Yahoo 15
Opponent- Atl (Foltynewicz) r Park- @Bal
He's had a horrendous time of things since coming back from the DL, that's for sure. That's a definite knock against him as there could be some lingering injury issues going on here. On the flip side, he probably isn't this bad even with some of the numbers trending in the wrong direction. Think you can take a chance on him because of the punt prices.

 

First base

Early Slate
Anthony Rizzo - FD 3100 DK 4800 Victiv 5300 Yahoo 17
Opponent- Col (Butler) R Park- @Chc
On FanDuel I think he's a must play. That price hasn't gotten into the silly range and I just don't see a reason to fade him at this point. The DraftKings price is a little closer to for me, but still very much in consideration. He's had a rough run of the luck in July with the BABIP which has driven his price down. The K's are up a little, but the walk rate is still there and he's facing Eddie Butler, a guy striking out less than five batters per nine and rocking an xFIP over five. Cubs' stacks are in order today.

Consider Carlos Santana on DraftKings

Late Slate
Jose Abreu - FD 3400 DK 4600 Victiv 5500 Yahoo 18
Opponent- Bos (Porcello) R Park- @Bos
We had him as a play yesterday against Wade Miley and he obliged with a huge game, 3-5 with a home run. I don't love him as much against the grounder-inducing Rick Porcello but the price is just about in the sweet spot on FanDuel. Abreu is a guy we write about a ton and honestly, I'm almost out of words for the guy. Not because he's so great, but because he's a consistent value on FD.

Freddie Freeman - FD 3400 DK 4700 Victiv 5500 Yahoo 19
Opponent- Bal (Tillman) R Park- @Bal
After being back for a few days from the DL I think it's fine to get Freeman rolling back in lineups. He's in a solid hitter's park in Camden Yards that plays as one of the best parks in baseball for lefty hitters. It's only behind Camden Yards and Yankee Stadium for this side of the platoon split. Chris Tillman allows a lot of flyballs, doesn't strike many folks out and walks the ballpark. Freeman is definitely back in the discussion.

 

Second base

Early Slate
Jason Kipnis - FD 3700 DK 4700 Victiv 5200 Yahoo 18
Opponent- KC (Guthrie) R Park- @Cle
Thing to know here is that Jeremy Guthrie really stinks and every five days it kind of shocks me that he still has a regular pitching gig. He can't strike anyone out and doesn't necessarily balance that out by inducing a ton of outs. The xFIP is closing in on five over a not insignificant sample size. You are getting a nice discount on Kipnis on FanDuel and I'm willing to consider him on DraftKings though that's a slightly bigger push because you will spend on pitching. He's putting it together this season for sure and I love him in leadoff spot.

Late Slate
Anthony Rendon - FD 3200 DK 3400 Victiv 5100 Yahoo
Opponent- Mia (Koehler) R Park- @Mia
Now here's a guy we've barely mentioned this season, mostly because he hasn't been around too much. But Rendon's prices are way down and if he sticks in the leadoff spot as he hit yesterday then this really bumps up his value. The thing about Rendon is his OBP is for sure there as he's walking more than 10% of the time. The power has been non-existent which is troubling considering there is some injury stuff to consider. I don't think it's purely bad luck that he's yet to hit a home run. But if he's a cheap leadoff hitter than can get on base then these prices are acceptable even with a power decline.

Howie Kendrick - FD 2600 DK 3700 Victiv 4600 Yahoo 14
Opponent- Oak (Chavez) R Park- @Lad
Love when this guy hits second in the lineup. More of a price play than anything else as Jesse Chavez is a decent pitcher, Kendrick's been an above average hitter against righties over the last couple of seasons with a 111 wRC+. So I'm not overly concerned with the righty on right matchup. Grab him on the cheaper side considering he can bang out an extra plate appearance.

 

Shortstop

Early Slate
Francisco Lindor - FD 2800 DK 3500 Victiv 3800 Yahoo 14
Opponent- KC (Guthrie) R Park- @Cle
You'll want to go very cheap here because you want to go cheap here almost everyday. Shortstop is one of those positions we often sound like a broken record. Go cheap and find guys high in the order. Lindor fits the bill. Hitting second for the Tribe and that spot in the order isn't in jeopardy at all. He's also coming out of some of the luck funk that plagued him early after his call up. He's not a masher by any means but as the BABIP has rounded out, lo and behold so has the OPS. He has a great matchup today and is coming on the cheap.

Starlin Castro - FD 2300 DK 3100 Victiv 4300 Yahoo 11
Opponent- Col (Butler) R Park- @Chc
Not to go all chalk-y here and just recommend Cubs until I'm blue in the face, but they are facing such a bad arm that almost all of them are in play. Castro doesn't hit high enough in the order to be considered safe, but the matchup means a play here.

Late Slate
Troy Tulowitzki - FD 4000 DK 4100 Victiv Yahoo 18
Opponent- Phi (Williams) R Park- @Tor
Welcome to Toronto my good man. Tulowitzki may have been hitting in the world's best power park for his entire career, but the Rogers Centre isn't too far behind. Don't expect a big power drop off. He's joining a crew of mashers and the counting stats should stay in line. Normally a lefty killer, I'm completely willing to play him against righties like Jerome Williams. Williams strikes out less than five and half batters per nine, has an xFIP in the mid 4's and is just generally a warm body able to walk out to the pitcher's mound when a team's in a pinch (or sucks like the Phillies). Tulo's prices are totally reasonable and I suspect he's a popular play on this slate.

Strongly consider Xander Bogaerts against the lefty Quintana

Third base

Early Slate
Kris Bryant - FD 3400 DK 5100 Victiv 5100 Yahoo 17
Opponent- Col (Butler) R Park- @Chc
With 4-5 legit ace pitchers going on this slate and only six total games it's not abnormal to see a concentration of plays from a team or two. And that's the case with the Cubs and Indians. Their prices are right in line with putting together solid lineups and they have sub par pitchers coming out of the opposite dugout. Bryant is another example of a guy coming cheap on FanDuel and these Cubbies are sure coming at discounts. Bryant is better against lefties of course, but the strikeout expectation is significantly decreased in facing Eddie Butler.

Strongly consider Evan Longoria because Justin Verlander is a shell now

Late Slate
Matt Carpenter - FD 2700 DK 3900 Victiv 4800 Yahoo 15
Opponent- Cin (Desclafani) R Park- @Stl
My goodness with the price drop on Carpenter. It's absurd. Look no further than his .203 BABIP in the month of July to know why you are getting a major discount on the guy. The rest of his numbers look totally reasonable and he's seen a dip because of bad luck. This is a guy with an .800 OPS and .355 wOBA against righties over the last couple of years. Anthony Desclafani is a mid range pitcher with no real K potential. I am playing Carpenter almost exclusively at these discounted prices.

 

Outfield

Early Slate
Michael Brantley - FD 3600 DK 4600 Victiv 5500 Yahoo 18
Brandon Moss - FD 2600 DK 3400 Victiv 4600 Yahoo 14
Opponent- KC (Guthrie) R Park- @Cle
We grouped these guys together yesterday and while the result wasn't what we were looking for, much of the process remains the same. Here's what Justin wrote about them yesterday. They exist on opposite ends of the spectrum in terms of deviations. Brantley is a contact guy who stays in the midrange because he gets on base and doesn't let the K's inhibit performance. But he doesn't put up tons of power. Moss on the other hand is a high K, high power guy who works more in a tournament setting.

Michael Bourn comes into play as well is he's in the lineup over Murphy.

Gregory Polanco - FD 2500 DK 3300 Victiv 4900 Yahoo 16
Opponent- Min (Santana) R Park- @Min
He was a popular play yesterday and with good reason. Hitting leadoff for the Pirates over a better part of the season and still coming on the cheap. Polanco's big value add is in his legs and he needs to get on base and start running in order to eclipse value. But that profile raises his floor considerably and he's not facing a huge arm in Santana.

 

Late Slate
Jacoby Ellsbury - FD 3700 DK 4400 Victiv 5100 Yahoo 18
Brett Gardner - FD 3700 DK 4900 Victiv 5100 Yahoo 18
Opponent- Tex (Lewis) R Park- @Tex
Understand that I don't have these guys on here because the Yankees happened to put up infinity runs last night againt Martin Perez and company. Against the lefty that seems a little fluky. But they have a great matchup against Colby Lewis today in a fantastic hitter's park. I like Ellsbury more across the board in terms of price and upside, but Gardner's in the mix as well. These guys aren't necessarily lights out against righty pitching (and have been rather platoon neutral over the last two years), but the speed ups the floor considerably. They are both in that midrange on FanDuel where pricing can get a little weird and wacky. But they fit a need in rounding out some lineups on the cheaper side.

Hanley Ramirez - FD 3400 DK 3900 Victiv 5300 Yahoo 18
Opponent- CWS (Quintana) L Park- @Bos
Oof, I never seem to get Hanley on the right night, but I'm headed back to the well again with him facing a lefty. He's had an enormous amount of success in this split over his career and the last two seasons have been right in line. A close to .900 OPS and wOBA over .380 in the lefty platoon makes him enticing against Jose Quintana. This is one of those situations where I need to get over my performance bias because I feel like I've gotten burned in the past. It's a tough thing with DFS, but I'll power through.

Joc Pederson - FD 2900 DK 3800 Victiv 4500 Yahoo 13
Opponent- Oak (Chavez) R Park- @Lad
Still hitting leadoff, but walking a whole lot less. Feel like the price is at a weird breaking point where either he snaps out of it or is dropped from the top spot in the lineup. Something has to give.

Strongly consider Jose Bautista And infinity cheap guys - for those, grab a free three day trial of our projection system. Good luck out there!

 

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