Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, Victiv, Yahoo, and DraftKings 7/31/15

Full disclaimer - this is a massive slate, and there's no way I could ever possibly list every decent play today. So, I'll do my best in highlighting whom I believe to be the elite plays. If you want the rest? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster.

 

Pitchers

Note: I could recommend a number of pitchers at similar prices tonight, so instead I'll give you whom I believe to be the best plays at different tiers of pricing so you can make decisions at different salary points. Enjoy!

The big ticket
Matt Harvey - FD 9900 DK 11200 Victiv Yahoo
Opponent- Was (Gonzalez) L Park- @Nym
In the interest of full disclosure, our projection system actually likes Gio Gonzalez quite a bit today too - mostly because it acknowledges that people really underrate how well they can predict who will get the win in a given game. Now, it's going to feel a little awkward for some to pick against the Nats - they've got the best hitter of right handed pitching on the entire world on their team, after all. But it might surprise you to find out that, in spite of Harper's heroics, the Nats are still basically a middle of the pack team when it comes to the wOBA they have against right handed pitching, and have struck out with the 7th highest frequency. And, since one man can't dominate baseball the way he can, say, basketball, Harvey is still a solid start here. I don't know that there's Herculean upside here or anything, but for 50/50s and double ups, I think Harvey is a very solid play.

The middle-man
Jason Hammel - FD 8200 DK 8100 Victiv Yahoo
Opponent- Mil (Jungmann) R Park- @Mil
If you're looking for a cheaper option to consider in double-ups, or even a big tournament, consider Hammel. It might surprise you to know, for instance, that Hammel has a 3.40 xFIP and an 8.5 K/9 in the last two seasons. Those are damned solid numbers - the xFIP is better than Harvey's this year - and his K/9 means he'll have decent upside whenever he takes the mound. The Brewers are slightly below average against right handed pitching, making this a fairly safe play as well. He'll be facing Taylor Jungmann today, whose 3.93 xFIP (making him basically a league average starter) paints a much better picture of his true talent than his lofty 2.14 ERA. If things break right, this could be a big game.

The pure punt
Rubby De La Rosa - FD 7100 DK 7400 Victiv Yahoo
Opponent- Hou (Feldman) R Park- @Hou
We gave you Rubby as a sleeper two starts ago, and he was pretty decent. I passed on him last time around... and he was amazing. I won't make the same mistake here! Rubby's got a fantastic boom/bust situation going today. The Astros have the 7th highest wOBA in the majors against right handed pitching this season, but they've also struck out with the very highest frequency. Our projection system picked up on the disparity between Rubby's ERA and xFIP 2 starts ago, when it was 5.06. After two great starts, he's down to a 4.52 number that's still more than a full run worse than his 3.51 xFIP. His K rate is respectable as well, and I think he has the potential for another big start here.

Considered: Ian Kennedy against the Marlins, and Danny Salazar for upside.

 

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Catchers

Yadier Molina - FD 2200 DK 3100 Victiv 4200 Yahoo 12
Opponent- Col (Kendrick) R Park- @Stl
Why do I love Molina tonight? Kyle Kendrick. He's one of 3 pitchers in the majors with a higher xFIP than a K/9. That's just so awful, it hard to describe. Anyway, I suspect the Cards will butcher the Rockies' lousy pitching, and expect Molina will have a solid if unspectacular game. Mostly, he just lets you get away from the position very cheaply to spend up elsewhere.

Yasmani Grandal - FD 3000 DK 3300 Victiv 4500 Yahoo 14
Opponent- LAA (Santigao) L Park- @Lad
Make no mistake, Grandal is better against right handed pitching, and this is a little bit of an odd recommendation in some ways. But what's happening here is that Grandal's overall price has just dipped to the point where, from a value perspective, you can justify taking him against his preferred platoon situation. I mean, the man has still walked 15% of the time against left handed pitching this season, so he's far from an abomination or anything - it's just that a lot of his power goes away when he hits from the right side of the play. To that end, this feels little more like a double-up play than one for big tournaments, but I figured I could still throw it out there for you. Santiago is another guy who's ERA is way ahead of his lousy 4.29 xFIP, and his extreme fly-ball tendencies (30% groundball rate) could lead to more upside than I'm picture here. All in all, I like the play.

Salvador Perez - FD 2200 DK 3200 Victiv 4800 Yahoo 12
Opponent- Tor (Hutchison) R Park- @Tor
Wrote this about Perez last night, and believe it holds up tonight as well:

Drew Hutchison is a better pitcher than Marco Estrada at this point, but He's not a guy that should push you off a legit power threat at the minimum salary on FanDuel from the catcher position.

 

First base

Anthony Rizzo - FD 3100 DK 4900 Victiv 5400 Yahoo 17
Opponent- Mil (Jungmann) R Park- @Mil
Warning - there will be a lot of overlap between tonight's picks and last night's. The reasons for this are simple, of course - guys are playing the same teams in the same parks and their prices have held relatively constant. Here's what I wrote last night, which holds doubly true tonight since Jungmann is a worse pitcher than Nelson in my estimation.

And the main thing he'll be rolling the dice against is: "Can I keep Rizzo to merely hitting long fly balls instead of home runs?" After a little dry spell, Rizzo hit a shot last night, hopefully quieting any concerns you had about his power. His OPS for the season has dipped below .900, but I mean, he costs $3,000 on FanDuel - the same as guys like Justin Smoak, Ryan Howard, or Ben Paulsen. And Rizzo's not a one trick pony, either. His 14 steals only trail Paul Goldschmidt at the position, and he's double the guy in 3rd place. Love this play for safety and upside.

Jose Abreu - FD 3900 DK 4600 Victiv 5500 Yahoo 18
Opponent- NYY (Eovaldi) R Park- @Cws
We gave you Abreu last night, and as of this writing, he's blessedly homered in the first inning! Hope there's more coming from here. Anyway, Abreu is on an absolute tear recently - averaging 6.25 FanDuel fantasy points in the 5 games before this one where he's just homered.

EDIT: Abreu is now facing a right handed pitcher, but he's still a nice play with his career .900 OPS against right handed pitching.

Brandon Belt - FD 3000 DK 4200 Victiv 5100 Yahoo 17
Opponent- Tex (Martinez) R Park- @Tex
Brandon Belt's a guy you can't play every night, but on nights where you can play him, I just love to plug him in. If you were unaware (which means you just don't read here enough), Brandon Belt's 30% line drive rate this season is tops in the majors by a full percentage point over 2nd place. He's made "soft contact" on just 11.1% of his batted balls this season - good for 9th in the majors. What's not to love, right? Well, Belt strikes out like a maniac. His 26.2% K rate makes him an oddly risky play for a guy who sprays line drives all over the place. And, playing in San Fran is no picnic either. Well, tonight - all those concerns are out the window. He'll be facing the hapless Nick Martinez, a recent graduate of the "K rate lower than his xFIP" group. Still, his 5.41 K/9 and his 4.93 xFIP tell you about what you need to know. He can't strike guys out, meaning Belt should make contact, and when he does, he blasts the ball all over. That about sums it up.

 

Second base

Joe Panik - FD 2800 DK 4500 Victiv 4500 Yahoo 14
Opponent- Tex (Martinez) R Park- @Tex
Another Giant who gets a big bump from facing a terrible pitcher of the right handedness in a great hitter's park. At this point in his career, Panik is kind of a rich man's Howie Kendrick - he strikes out less, walks more, and has a better OPS in his positive platoon spot - but he gets by on making lots of hard contact and sporting a high BABIP. I love Panik in every format.

Howie Kendrick - FD 2800 DK 3800 Victiv 4600 Yahoo 14
Opponent- LAA (Santigao) L Park- @Lad
Speak of the devil! Second base is pretty rough tonight, so I'll present Kendrick as a pretty cheap high floor guy that I'm happy to roll with. Like I wrote with Grandal, Hector Santiago is pretty wildly overrated, and the high-contact, high BABIP Kendrick should be able to put a bunch of hard hits in play today. After that, it's anybody's guess - but getting a second baseman with a .750 OPS against left handed pitching this season at the top of a lineup against a below average pitcher is a pretty good spot from where I'm sitting.

Brandon Phillips - FD 2400 DK 3500 Victiv 4200 Yahoo 14
Opponent- Pit (Locke) L Park- @Cin
This one is a little bit to dream on - Phillips has been pretty bad recently, and his ISO has been drifting downward for 5 years in a row. Hmm, Phillips probably shouldn't hire me as his agent. Still - there's a lot to like. His 5 homers and 11 steals absolutely pass for upside at this position, and while you can't play him every night, I think he's still worth a look when he's super cheap against left handed pitching. Tonight is one such night. Locke is basically a pitch to contact below league average guy, and on the right night, you might be able to catch lightning in a bottle.

EDIT!

LOL - I just saw Phillips is 4/5 tonight with 2 homers and 2 steals (last night, by the time you're reading this - I swear I didn't see this when I did the original writeup!).

 

Shortstop

Jhonny Peralta - FD 2600 DK 3700 Victiv 4500 Yahoo 14
Opponent- Col (Kendrick) R Park- @Stl
More Cardinals, please! Peralta has actually been a little bit better against right handed pitching this season, and he's 2nd at his position in homers (14) and 3rd in wOBA. And, for some reason, he's still priced like the other bums who field his position. Against a terrible right hander like Kendrick, this pick frankly feels like a no-brainer, and I'll gobble up Peralta everywhere without strongly considering anyone else, methinks.

Brandon Crawford - FD 3200 DK 4600 Victiv 4600 Yahoo 16
Opponent- Tex (Martinez) R Park- @Tex
To be clear, I like Peralta better mostly on a points per dollar basis. In terms of raw production, Crawford could top him. In case you were wondering, Crawford is the guy with the most home runs at the position, and the 2nd highest wOBA. He's also $600 more on FanDuel, and his match-up isn't quite as good as Peralta's. But I gotta say, picking between Nick Martinez and Kyle Kendrick is like picking between organic chemistry and AP Spanish for my least favorite classes ever. And, right, we don't know each other, but I really hated those classes. Sra. Roth, if you're reading this, I really hope you're rethinking your teaching methods. Where was I? Crawford. I really like him for upside, here, and love him as part of your Giants stack lineups for big tournaments.

Alcides Escobar - FD 2200 DK 3500 Victiv 4800 Yahoo 14
Opponent- Tor (Hutchison) R Park- @Tor
Your token "cheap dude who bats at the top of the lineup," which I wind up recommending every night at this gods awful position. I'm very grateful to write-up the guys above, but if you do just want to spend nothing and get a guy who (for some reason) bats first in a tough lineup, I like Escobar. A fine grab for double-ups and 50/50s.
 

Third base

Matt Carpenter - FD 2700 DK 4100 Victiv 4800 Yahoo 15
Opponent- Col (Kendrick) R Park- @Stl
I'm going to go out on what feels like not so much of a limb and say that Matt Carpenter is criminally under-priced at the moment. Carpenter's batted ball profile looks very much like it has when he was performing at All-Star levels, and I'm confident that he'll keep being the high OBP high BABIP guy that made him one of the best at his position. Taking him against Kyle Kendrick in a good platoon spot is an absolute no brainer, and while he isn't normally a huge upside play, I'll happily grab him in any format at hope for the best.

EDIT:

Omfg, regular readers will know I don't do this ever, but I just had to race back here and say that I picked Carpenter before he also hit 2 homers last night. I guess our projection system is awesome at forecasting what happened yesterday! I'm dying here.

Evan Longoria - FD 2800 DK 3800 Victiv 5100 Yahoo 15
Opponent- Bos (Rodriguez) L Park- @Bos
Longoria hasn't blossomed into the world-beater I thought he would, but there's one thing he can still do plenty: hit bad left handed pitching. And Eduardo Rodriguez qualifies, at least at this stage in his career. He's wild, leaves a lot of balls up in the zone, and gives up a lot of hard contact. Longoria's got a .902 OPS against left handed pitching this season, and should be able to plenty in a very nice park for right handed hitters.

Mike Moustakas - FD 2400 DK 3900 Victiv 4300 Yahoo 15
Opponent- Tor (Hutchison) R Park- @Tor
Moustakas is another throw-back to last night's picks, and boy, did he totally suck. Still, not a whole lot has changed. He bats 2nd in a lineup that can really hit, and he's facing an average-ish right hander that should theoretically play into his biggest strengths - lots of hard contact and potential for good counting stats if things break right. Last night they didn't. Tonight is a new day. Bring it on! I like Moustakas in particular if you're not looking for big upside, but just need solid points per dollar production so you can spend up elsewhere.

 

Outfield

Yasiel Puig - FD 3100 DK 3400 Victiv 4900 Yahoo 16
Opponent- LAA (Santigao) L Park- @Lad
This little Puigy has been going to market against left handed pitching all season (good god that was awful but kinda awesome), and I see no reason why that shouldn't continue against Hector Santiago tonight. If you want the deets, Puig has put up a monstrous .942 OPS against left handed pitching this season on the back of a .282 ISO, and I love him here.

Adam Jones - FD 2900 DK 4700 Victiv 5300 Yahoo 16
Opponent- Det (Farmer) R Park- @Bal
It's a sort of a crime that I can't recommend more guys against "Buck Farmer," who sounds like an all-too-lucky strapping young man who's throwing hay bales when a neighbor gal comes by to borrow some salt, but here we are. Jones is another replica of last night's picks, and we certainly like him tonight more than we did last night. Mr. Farmer projects to be a back of the rotation guy - a polished college pitcher who probably doesn't have the stuff to cut it in the majors long term. Jones has been better against RHP during his career, and this should be a nice high-floor spot to grab him.

Yoenis Cespedes - FD 3600 DK 4400 Victiv 5300 Yahoo 18
Opponent- Bal (Chen) L Park- @Bal
Cespedes has just been brutal against lefties this season, but at least some of that can be attributed to some absurd BABIP luck. Baltimore's a fine place to hit, and Wei-Yin Chen is about a league average pitcher who shouldn't scare you much here. All in all, I think you can stack Cubans at outfielder tonight and do just fine!

Preston Tucker - FD 3300 DK 3600 Victiv 4400 Yahoo 15
Opponent- Ari (de la Rosa) R Park- @Hou
The young man has just tortured right handed pitching in AAA and the majors this year (.944 OPS in the majors!), and dusted them in AA in 2014. It still remains to be seen if he can pull it off against pitchers of every handedness, but stranger things have happened than him beating up on righties like de la Rosa at home. This is definitely a boom or bust play, but I love him for big tournaments.

Nelson Cruz - FD 4200 DK 5100 Victiv 5900 Yahoo 19
Opponent- Min (Milone) L Park- @Min
My token expensive outfielder for the day, Cruz has blistered lefties for a 1.161 OPS this season, and while it's definitely somewhat BABIP fueled, he also has a .321 ISO that just can't be ignored. Tommy Milone, in case you're unreasonably infatuated, simply isn't very good. His 4.32 xFIP and lack of command (in spite of not really having put away stuff) leaves me puzzled, but not so much major league hitters. Upside through the roof here.

As always, a million cheap guys, but in particular I love Trubmo against the left handed Tommy Milone.

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