Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Victiv 8/20/15

Oh my goodness gracious there are a lot of bad pitchers going on this slate. It's almost too much to handle. Look, there are inevitably going to be guys who go off today that aren't on our list. It's the nature of this slate. There are simply too many dogs taking the mound.

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Pitchers

Patrick Corbin - FD 6700 DK 9300 Victiv
Opponent- Cin (Lamb) L Park- @Cin
We went in with Corbin last time he pitched (as a somewhat contrarian move at the time) and dude more than paid. Well, he got us paid and then some. And even with his sick peripherals (9 K's per nine, less than 2.5 walks) and 3.18 xFIP, the price remains criminally low on FanDuel. It's kind of a joke really and he should be a decent start on this slate now that he's more on the radar after the game against the Braves. There's still some risk here, but no other pitcher of his caliber is ever priced like this on FanDuel and you need to take advantage. He allows you to get in a plethora of bats against weaker arms. The Reds are a good team against lefties and this is a hitter's park. Both knocks on Corbin. But they don't outweigh his projected average. He's steep on DraftKings so I might avoid him there. But it makes a nice natural hedge if you play both sites.

Collin McHugh - FD 8600 DK 8700 Victiv
Opponent- TB (Archer) R Park- @Hou
If he wasn't matched up with Archer this would be a much clearer play. The Rays rate as one of the worst teams in the league against righty pitching, ranking 26th in team wOBA against that split. McHugh isn't a huge strikeout guy (though he does dabble from time to time). His value comes from the Rays rarely mounting any kind of significant offensive threat in this platoon. He's a dog for the win, which hurts him, but everything else is in his favor.

Strongly consider Chris Archer as the Astros are so strikeout prone that he could put up a monster line. He's just cost prohibitive on a day when bats could really go wild.

 

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Catchers

Victor Martinez - FD 3000 DK 3500 Victiv 4900
Opponent- Tex (Perez) L Park- @Det
Here's your standard disclaimer that he doesn't qualify at catcher anywhere else but on FanDuel. But there he's a sick play against the lefty Perez. V-Mart has a 1K OPS against lefties over the last couple of seasons with a .440 wOBA. There aren't too many other bats with the same kind of success in this split over that time period. He's very tough to strike out, going down on strikes only 8% of the time and that means it should be all about contact today against Perez. I think this is the easy FD play.

On the other sites I like going a bit cheaper at C with guys like Miguel Montero and Matt Wieters

 

First base

Paul Goldschmidt - FD 4500 DK 5700 Victiv 5700
Opponent- Cin (Lamb) L Park- @Cin
I'm all over Goldschmidt today. Been recommending him on the heavy for the last couple of days and it isn't going to stop now. Just about every relevant factor in making a pick like this works in Goldie's favor. He just crushes lefties and over the last couple of years has an absurd 1.144 OPS and .479 wOBA in that split. Those numbers are basically unheard of (outside of Hall of Famers). Now BABIP plays a part there, but even if you regress that some he's still f@#$ing crazy in this platoon. The ballpark boosts power all around. Only the matchup against John Lamb has me thinking twice as Lamb's a big K guy. But on FanDuel the price is simply too good to pass up. On DK it's a little closer.

Justin Bour - FD 2200 DK 3000 Victiv 3100
Opponent- Phi (Williams) R Park- @Mia
Had him as a top play yesterday and dude delivered big way with a home run and three RBIs as a min-priced punt play. Same story for Bour today. He faces a weaker arm in Jerome Williams who poses almost no strikeout upside. Bour's an above average hitter in this split. The ballpark does him a little dirty by depressing power to all fields. But Bour hitting in the middle of the lineup makes him a way to save some dough.

 

Second base

Anthony Rendon - FD 3400 DK 4000 Victiv 5400
Opponent- Col (Flande) L Park- @Col
Danny Espinosa - FD 3200 DK 3700 Victiv 4200
Opponent- Col (Flande) L Park- @Col
Willing to play whichever guy gets the start today. Espinosa hit second in the lineup yesterday, and though there wasn't much production from really any of the Nats, we should have them heavily targeted again today. Both guys are priced in the mid tier, very affordable and would have a great matchup against the lefty Flande. Flande's a big time groundball ball which does help his chances in Coors. But hey, this is Coors and the power expectation there is real. Both Rendon and Espinosa are well above average against lefties over the last couple of years with each sporting OPS's in the .800's. At a thinner position and coming fairly priced for the ballpark, either fits the bill.

 

Shortstop

Alcides Escobar - FD 2400 DK 3800 Victiv 4500
Opponent- Bos (Miley) L Park- @Bos
Best to just go cheap with shortstop today and be done with it. Which brings me to Alcides Escobar. A guy who couldn't hit his way out of a paper bag which is good enough to hit leadoff for the Royals. As we always say for him: the value comes in his slot in the batting order. Getting extra plate appearance expectation just means that much great of a chance of luckboxing his way into a hit. That's basically Alcides' batter profile. He doesn't take any walks and hits for zero power. Will steal a base every once in a while, but is mostly a body keeping your shortstop slot warm.

Erick Aybar - FD 2200 DK 2900 Victiv 4300
Opponent- CWS (Quintana) L Park- @ana
Kind of the same story as Alcides without the bonus of hitting leadoff anymore. Aybar has been dropped to around 6th in the lineup which all but kills his value except that he's coming so damn cheap. Quintana is a fine pitcher and to be honest, I don't love this play. The big problem is there really are no shortstops to consider on this slate with any semblance of excitement.

Consider Eugenio Suarez if you aren't playing Corbin

Third base

I hate third base today on FanDuel. It's a little different on DraftKings where so many guys have multi-position eligibility.

Kris Bryant - FD 3300 DK 4600 Victiv 5100
Opponent- Atl (Foltynewicz) r Park- @Chc
This is an overpay for sure, but there aren't a lot of other good options coming out of the hot corner. Mike Foltynewicz is an average pitcher who can dial up some K's, but also walks a ton of batters and sports an xFIP in the mid 4's. Bryant is a high K guy which makes him risky in cash games unless the price is super advantageous (which this isn't). He's here more as a byproduct of the position than as an actual sick value.

Todd Frazier - FD 2800 DK 4500 Victiv 5100
Opponent- Ari (Corbin) L Park- @Cin
He is coming so cheap on FanDuel, but I don't love the matchup against Corbin. Frazier is definitely a player in the lefty split and maybe I'm hesitating here because I made a big case for Corbin above. Removing that write up from the mix, Frazier rates out as the top points per dollar play on this slate for FanDuel third base.

Outfield

Mike Trout - FD 4500 DK 4700 Victiv 5800
Opponent- CWS (Quintana) L Park- @ana
This is a fantastic time to buy Trout on basically every site. His price has dropped into the mid 4K range on the major players like FanDuel and DraftKings. It can sometimes feel weird to think of that price as a "value" but it is for Trout. Look, he's about the best there is and is going through somewhat of a slump at the moment. It makes the perfect time to get money in on him safely. Even with the matchup against Quintana I'm buying all over the price. Think about it: he's typically over 5K and beyond. Take advantage of the market.

Jayson Werth - FD 3800 DK 3700 Victiv 5200
Opponent- Col (Flande) L Park- @Col
He's a sick deal on DraftKings even if he wasn't hitting leadoff, which he is. Werth as the table setter for the Nats increases his value a ton and the bonus of playing Coors makes up for his price getting corrected just some leading into this series. Werth is a mid 800's OPS guy over the last couple of seasons against southpaws and takes walks at 14% clip. Like I said before, Flande is a high GB% guy, but Werth's success in this split, plus the slot in the lineup make him a good play on FD and a must play on DraftKings.

J.D. Martinez - FD 3600 DK 4700 Victiv 5400
Opponent- Tex (Perez) L Park- @Det
Rajai Davis - FD 2300 DK 3300 Victiv 4100
Opponent- Tex (Perez) L Park- @Det
Love the price on both these guy pretty much all season long when facing lefty arm. Davis hits at the top of the order when southpaws are on the mound and rakes that split. He has an .845 OPS and 133 wRC+ in that split over the last couple of seasons and adds in speed to boot. This is a great matchup against Martin Perez who strikes out less than five batters per nine. Davis is a punt play with major upside. J.D. on the other hand is priced a bit higher, but has had a ton of success with an OPS over .900 in the last couple of seasons. Both these guys are on my radar in Tiger stacks and cash games.

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