featured Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

    09/04/2015
    Doug Norrie

    Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Victiv 9/4/15

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    Pitchers

    Jacob deGrom - FD 11800 DK 11400 Victiv
    Opponent- Mia (Koehler) R Park- @Mia
    Our system doesn't love him from a points per dollar standpoint, but it's hard to argue with deGrom on this slate. The Marlins are the equivalent of a little league team against righties (albeit a little league team that would like, win a bunch of games, but whatever) and are such a weak hitting bunch. This game is going off in Miami, a pitcher's haven and deGrom's been a borderline elite pitcher this season. He's striking out more than a batter and a half per inning and rocking a sub 3.00 xFIP. Again, this is a steep price to pay for deGrom, but with so much value among the bats it shouldn't be a big issue paying a premium here.

    James Shields - FD 8800 DK 8700 Victiv
    Opponent- LAD (Bolsinger) R Park- @Sd
    He's on the cheaper side of things and while I don't think he's on the same safety level of maybe a guy like deGrom. Shields still sports a close-to-elite 9.67 K/9 rate though he does give up a few too many walks. Two of his last three games have been more like it for the guy and while he's playing a Dodgers' team that's performed well against righties this season, they've struggled of late. Shields is more a tournament play than anything because he for sure has downside especially considering the amount of home runs he's given up this season. But the ballpark does help him and I like the price here.

     

    Catchers

    Catcher feels like a moderate disaster today.

    Salvador Perez - FD 2400 DK 3400 Victiv 4500
    Opponent- CWS (Danks) L Park- @KC
    This more about targeting a weaker arm than it is about any real love for a guy like Perez. Dude's never going to a have a high BABIP because he runs as fast as my daughter when she was two. But even for his slow self, Perez has run bad. Again, this is a price point play considering Danks is a rough shout when it comes to getting outs with a mid 4's xFIP and lower K rate. Perez won't cost and you can worry about hits from other, real positions.

    Yan Gomes - FD 2600 DK 3500 Victiv 5100
    Opponent- Det (Lobstein) L Park- @Det
    Speaking of players who I don't want to play but am forced to because position offers little in the way of excitement, I give you Yan Gomes. He's put on something of a power display over the last week after being mostly a mannequin with a bat in his hands for most of the season. Gomes has skills though they haven't been on display this season. But Kyle Lobstein's no Sandy Koufax. Hell he's not even Evelyn Koufax (Sandy's mom). The K rate's abysmal and he shuffles between the majors and the minors (never a good sign).

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    First base

    Albert Pujols - FD 3500 DK 4200 Victiv 5100
    Opponent- Tex (Perez) L Park- @ana
    For all of his home runs this season, there isn't a ton of other stuff going on for Pujols. He's deriving almost all of his value from the long ball. And that can be a scary proposition if you're looking for any kind of safety. Begging for a dong is no way to live life. That being said, Pujols has a good matchup against Martin Perez and Albert's run bad against lefties over the last couple of seasons. I like the price on Prince Albert as it's come down over the short term. While he's certainly not as tempting as the raw home run totals would presume, you can still get his salary in there on this slate.

    Carlos Santana - FD 3200 DK 4400 Victiv 5500
    Opponent- Det (Lobstein) L Park- @Det
    I'd call him a medium value on this slate. he has a fantastic walk rate against lefties over the last couple of seasons at 15.5% which is actually the same exact number as his K rate in that split. That's a lot of getting on base, which should play well against a guy like Lobstein. Santana isn't a huge power threat from this side of the plate, though he's above average with a 121 wRC+. I'll take him at slight discount on FD and like the multi-position eligibility on DraftKings. The pitching matchup does him some favors, especially considering the strike out expectation is greatly diminished.

     

    Second base

    Robinson Cano - FD 3300 DK 3700 Victiv 5400
    Opponent- Oak (Brooks) R Park- @Oak
    Feel like it's been a while since I've touted Robbie (after a solid couple months of extolling his virtues) but the price had climbed to a point beyond the value range. It's back in the right area now. After a horrendous start to the season, Cano's rounded back into shape somewhat and isn't the abomination from the first couple of months. Cano's been a .900 OPS dude since the All-Star break, which is much more in line with his career numbers. The price has dipped some and he's especially a deal on DraftKings, though I'll be inclined to play him just about everywhere.

    Honestly, I'm not seeing a ton to love beyond Cano at second base. You can consider Kelly Johnson if he's in the lineup. Like I said, second base is another rough shout.

     

    Shortstop

    Xander Bogaerts - FD 3200 DK 3800 Victiv 4700
    Opponent- Phi (Morgan) L Park- @Bos
    Adam Morgan strikes out less than five batters per nine and is rocking an xFIP in the mid 5's. He's been roughed up all along the way since getting called up and the Red Sox are in a decent spot today. Bogaerts is a mid .800's OPS guy over the last couple of seasons against lefties with a 129 wRC+. He's a mid range play on FanDuel but is coming a little cheaper on DraftKings where he makes a great deal.

    Jhonny Peralta - FD 2400 DK 3500 Victiv 4300
    Opponent- Pit (Happ) L Park- @Stl
    Still coming at just about the minimums which, for a shortstop who doesn't bat last and isn't a massive offensive drain on his team, is something to be applauded. Peralta is better against lefties for his career (though he isn't an extreme platoon guy). As always, his value comes from the middle of the order placement which is more than can be said for most other shortstops. He's had a rough go of it of late, but the price remains a fantastic value.

    Third base

    Todd Frazier - FD 2300 DK 4400 Victiv 5100
    Opponent- Mil (Garza) R Park- @Cin
    Oof, has he struggled in the second half of the season. Frazier's run into some BABIP issues for sure, and the K rate's climbed some in the short term. But there aren't a lot of other signs that his struggles are much more than a string of bad luck. And yet that price (at least on FanDuel) is basically at a minimum. To me, that's essentially must start territory. He's about an .800 OPS guy against righties over the last couple of seasons and is facing an average arm in Matt Garza.

    David Freese - FD 2400 DK 3100 Victiv 3900
    Opponent- Tex (Perez) L Park- @ana
    Has a couple of hits since coming back off the DL two days ago, which at least has me somewhat confident that he's over some of the finger issues. Two days do not a rehab make, but hand problems when it comes to hitting can be worrisome. Freese is an above average hitter against lefties and has a 128 wRC+ over the last couple of seasons in that split. Martin Perez is no great shakes and Freese is coming beyond cheap just about everywhere.

     

    Outfield

    Mike Trout - FD 4300 DK 4900 Victiv 5300
    Opponent- Tex (Perez) L Park- @ana
    As far as I'm concerned, he's still a stupid bargain on FanDuel because of some struggles a week or so ago. There's really no reason for the price to be this low and you need to take advantage. I'd call him basically a must play over there and it's close on DraftKings. Trout is actually better against righties for his career, but it's not like he's an extreme splits guy. He's elite all around. It's Trout. I don't need to roll through the superlatives. When you get prices like this, you take them and play him.

    Mookie Betts - FD 3600 DK 4800 Victiv 5400
    Opponent- Phi (Morgan) L Park- @Bos
    Remember when I was talking about Adam Morgan and the issues with actually striking batters out? Those concepts apply to Betts as well. He's basically above average against lefties for his career and really needs to make contact in order to be effective. Betts doesn't take a ton of walks in this split, though he doesn't strike out an inordinate amount of time either. This is a matchup he can work with and hitting out of the leadoff slot is where he snags his value in the mid tier price range.

    Jay Bruce - FD 2400 DK 3900 Victiv 4600
    Opponent- Mil (Garza) R Park- @Cin
    As long as the Reds want to bat him second in the order, Bruce has a ton of value at these prices just from the plate appearance expectation angle. Sure he strikes out all the time. And sure the walk rate isn't exactly where you want it to be. But Bruce at a $2400 FanDuel rate in a hitter's park against an arm like Garza, has Bruce's upside more than worth the price. He's a power hitter (and really little else) so that's what you'll need to see. Though when you can buy power expectation at a reduced cost then it makes a lot of sense.

    Carlos Gomez - FD 2900 DK 4100 Victiv 5300
    Opponent- Min (Pelfrey) R Park- @Hou
    Really like his FD price if he can just get into the middle of the order. Not an extreme platoon guy and Pelfrey is garbage-y.

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    1 Visitor Comment

    1. Change the date atop the page. It shows as 9/3/15 it might confuse some ppl.

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