Daily Fantasy NFL Picks for Draftpot - Week One

Welcome to the inaugural DFS NFL picks article for Draftpot, a brand new way to play fantasy sports. If you want a rundown of the site specifics there will be a site review article coming out very soon. In short, Draftpot is similar to other DFS sites except there is no salary cap restrictions. They offer two separate game types(Fan Mode/GM Mode). For NFL, Fan Mode allows you to build a roster of 1 QB,2 RB,3 WR,1 TE,2 FLEX,1 K,1 DEF without salary restrictions. You can roster anyone you want. In GM Mode, you also roster the same positions but have a Drafpot Points Per Game(DPPG) cap. Each player have a PPG value attached to their name which is a reflection of their previous 16 games played. This gives a more transparent look at player value.

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When making my picks I will be looking at a multitude of information (Vegas lines, totals and player props, targets, defensive matchups, injuries, offensive line rankings and of course DPPG) to break down all the players in the pool to provide you with the best analysis possible for the slate at hand.

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Remember, in a mode like DraftPot you will need some separation from the field. Players who stand to produce big games that give you a chance to break from the field some.

Quarterbacks

Matt Ryan - Atlanta Falcons vs. PHI (DPPG - 19.77)
This is my favorite matchup of the week. The Eagles were 2nd last, only to the Falcons themselves, in passing yards per game allowed last season. This game has a high over/under(55) and should be a fantasy points bonanza for the passing games. Your best bet in Fan Mode format would be to pair your QB with his #1 target and it just so happens Matt Ryan has one of the best in the game in Julio Jones. With the limited experience in the Falcons backfield I can see Ryan throwing it close to 40 times this game and it wouldn't be unreasonable to expect 300 yards and 2-3 TD's come Monday Night Football.
Tony Romo - Dallas Cowboys vs. NYG (DPPG - 19.2)
Eli Manning - New York Giants @ DAL (DPPG - 19.09)
I couldn't decide between the two so I am recommending both this weekend. When looking back at last years matchups vs. each other it went like this:
Week 7 in Dallas - Tony Romo threw for 279 yards and 3 Touchdowns(4th called back on review)
Eli Manning threw for 248 yards and 3 Touchdowns
Week 12 in New York - Tony Romo threw for 275 yards and 4 touchdowns
Eli Manning threw for 338 yards and 3 Touchdowns
They always seem to fill the scoreboard against each other, especially through the air and on our fantasy rosters. Both teams defenses ranked in the bottom half of the league in passing yards per game allowed and both have a superstars WR to pair them with in either format as the QB tag for these guys is very fair.

Also Consider: Ryan Tannehill - Miami Dolphins @ WSH (19.22 DPPG)

 

Running Backs

Eddie Lacy - Green Bay Packers @ CHI (DPPG - 17.29)
By far my favorite RB play of the week across the fantasy football world. The Packers go on the road to open their season and will be without their #1 WR for the entire year. Randall Cobb and Davante Adams will definitely see and uptick in targets but I feel the biggest beneficiary, this week anyway, will be Lacy. The Bears defense was 17th against the run last season and they just don't have a very good team. They lost Marshall to the Jets and their other WR(Jeffrey) is banged up going into the season. Green Bay should be able to get a lead in the first half leading to multiple carries for Lacy in the second half. When looking at GM Mode he presents tremendous value at 17.29 DPPG which ranks 7th among running backs.
Jeremy Hill - Cincinnati Bengals @ OAK (DPPG - 13.43)
Even with Gio Bernard in the mix, Hill should still see the fair share of 1st and 2nd down touches. He averaged 5.1 yards per carry in 2014 and runs behind a top 5 offensive line going into the season. Hill will be facing a Raiders team who allowed 119 rushing yards per game in 2014 which ranked 22nd in the NFL. The Bengals are a 3.5 point favorites and if they get a lead early look for multiple touches from Hill in the 2nd half. He is ranked 14th in DPPG in GM Mode and makes a near must play in that format.

Also Consider: Jonathan Stewart - Carolina Panthers @ JAX (10.18 DPPG)

 

Wide Receivers

Julio Jones - Atlanta Falcons vs. PHI (19.83 DPPG)
Dez Bryant - Dallas Cowboys vs. NYG (19.75 DPPG)
I chose to highlight both of these high end WR's as they are ranked very close at 4th and 5th in DPPG in GM Mode. I talked about each of their QB's earlier and when playing DFS football I almost always pair my QB with his #1 WR to capitalize on points when they go off. In my opinion these two QB/WR combo's are tops in the NFL. When you get a chance to roster them in great matchups you better jump on board.
Brandon Cooks - New Orleans Saints @ ARI (DPPG - 13.93)
Going down a tier I really like Brandon Cooks this week. He should see more targets this season with the exit of Jimmy Graham to Seattle. His matchup this week is pretty good when looking at the numbers. The Cardinals were 29th in the NFL in receiving yards per game. Cooks is very explosive and can break a WR screen for a TD at almost any point so he makes a great GPP play this week.
Davante Adams - Green Bay Packers @ CHI (6.29 DPPG)
A must play in all formats on Draftpot GM Mode this week. His DPPG are minimum and will climb dramatically after week 1 so get in on the bargain while you can. The Packers lost their #1 WR in Jordy Nelson for the season so their will be plenty of extra targets to go around. The Packers have always been a "next man up" kind of team and we already know Adams has the talent before he hits the field. He will function as the #2 WR in an explosive offense with the leagues best quarterback. Get him in your lineups!

Also Consider: John Brown - Arizona Cardionals vs. NO (DPPG 9.19)

 

Tight Ends

Greg Olsen - Carolina Panthers @ JAX (DPPG - 13.80)
Tight End is a tough position to start the year as there are so many question marks regarding roles and volume. One guy who will receive all the volume he can handle is Olsen. The Panthers were thin in the receiving core before losing Benjamin in the pre season. Now they are decimated at the position and desperate to have anyone catch passes from Cam Newton. He has always been a high usage guy in PPR formats and should also see some extra red zone targets as well.
Kyle Rudolph - Minnesota Vikings @ SF (DPPG - 8.36)
He comes in with the 20th ranked DPPG and presents some value at the thin TE position. He has been looking very comfortable with QB Teddy Bridgewater in preseason and if he can stay healthy is poised for a big year. We are only worried about this week against SF and it appears to be a good matchup. The 49ers were in the bottom 3rd of the league last year in fantasy points allowed to tight ends in PPR formats. The Vikings, with Adrian Peterson back and an improved Bridgewater, should be able to move the ball down the field and give Rudolph plenty of opportunities to score fantasy points.

 

Defenses

New York Jets vs. CLE (DPPG - 4.13)
They have the 4th lowest DPPG and one of the top matchups of the week. The Browns come to town with nothing close to resembling a scary offense and the Jets have the potential to be one of the top defenses in the league. New head coach Todd Bowles is very creative in his blitzing and and has great set of corners(Revis, Cromartie, Skrine) to play man coverage allowing him to be blitz heavy. Look for the Jets to be one of the top scoring defenses this week.
Miami Dolphins @ WSH (DPPG - 7.63)
The Dolphins rank 13th in DPPG this week and travel to Washington for, what should be, a good matchup for the defense. The Redskins offensive line ranks as one of the worst in the league heading into this season and rookie Brandon Scherff and the crew will have their hands full with the Dolphins rush this week. Ndamukong Suh adds to an already dangerous rush with Cameron Wake and Oliver Vernon. Their secondary is lead by corner Brent Grimes and Safety Reshad Jones. The Dolphins hold huge upside this week with the ability to record multiple sacks and interceptions. They make a nice GPP play this week.

Kickers

Brandon McManus - Denver Broncos vs. BAL (DPPG - 4.93)
He is the cheapest option if you are playing GM mode as he took over top duties when the Broncos released Connor Barth. A kicker in Denver is always a nice pick and even better when he comes this cheap.

Matt Bryant - Atlanta Falcons vs. PHI (DPPG - 10.5)
If you are playing Fan Mode I like Bryant this week as the game has a high total and both teams should be able to move the ball. When picking a kicker in DFS I really just try to find a Denver game or indoor game with a team projected for lots of points.

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