Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Starsdraft 9/22/15

There's really nothing like Tuesday MLB daily fantasy baseball contests. All of the NFL money finds its way into baseball contests - guys who know football, but mostly know they want to get even after a weekend loss. This is the time for sharks to circle. Tuesday's a nice big slate, but it's made very interesting by a decided lack of top tier pitching. This means lots of guys to pick from today, and a sea of possible options to wade through. No reason to be overwhelmed by the choice - let's dive in to it.

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Pitchers

While lots of bad pitching makes choosing hitters a little bit easier, it obviously makes choosing pitchers tough as well. It's interesting today because I can't really recommend guys outside a very narrow price window. That said - let's do this.

Danny Salazar - FD 9100 DK 11100 StarsDraft
Opponent- Min (Santana) R Park- @Min
I'll give you the biggest upside guy first. A quick glance at Salazar's game log tells you most of what you need to know about him. He's got some huge games - even against great hitting teams like the Blue Jays (7 IP, 10 Ks, 1 BB, 2 ER, W) and Yankees (7.1 IP, 8 Ks, 5 BB, 1 ER, W), and some truly horrible games as well. In that way, it's kinda hard to know which Salazar you're going to get from night to night. And... this sort of makes him perfect for deployment in a big tournament. Tonight's match-up with the Twins should raise Salazar's floor somewhat. They've struck out at the 8th highest rate vs. right handed pitching this year, and managed the AL's worst wOBA against northpaws. He's also got a nice match-up with Ervin Santana, who appears to be back to normal after his 2 game black-out to greatness. I get it if you like Ross better for safety, but I'm very tempted to just roll with Salazar everywhere.

Tyson Ross - FD 9100 DK 10600 StarsDraft
Opponent- SF (Heston) R Park- @Sd
I've written up Ross so many times this season that it's starting to get old hat for me, but I've gotta give you the best plays, so here you go. Let's get the elephant in the room out of the way - the Giants are actually a team that can hit right handed pitching (the 7th best wOBA in the majors against righties, as a matter of fact). So why push Ross? First things first - Petco. It's still one of the very toughest places to hit in the majors. And then there's Ross himself. Ross is generally underrated in the fantasy community because of his ungainly WHIP. In daily fantasy baseball, though, WHIP doesn't matter. Ross is able to erase a lot of his walks with his 3rd best in the majors ground-ball rate, and he's still striking out better than a guy an inning. He's also facing Chris Heston, who's taken a serious step back after coming out of the gate hot. I think Ross' ground-ball rate and Petco's spacious dimensions makes him a nice high floor play, even if the general goodness of the Giants limits his upside.

John Lackey - FD 9000 DK 10300 StarsDraft
Opponent- Cin (Sampson) R Park- @Stl
I've probably given Lackey too much grief this season for his run-hot ERA, but the fact of the matter is that he's put together three pretty solid seasons in a row, now. He's coming off two great games in a row, and one of those saw him cutting down these same Reds for 10 strikeouts in 7 innings pitched. It also doesn't hurt that he's up against Keyvius Sampson, a young right hander who is a true-talent 5 BB/9 guy at best, which should give the Cards plenty of opportunity to help Lackey get a win. I'm not ready to sign off on him for safety just due to the presence of a couple XL bats in the Reds lineup, but this could be another big start for him, and I doubt many will play him.

Catchers

Victor Martinez - FD 2600 DK 3500 StarsDraft 4800
Opponent- CWS (Quintana) L Park- @Det
After sitting in the second half of Monday's double-header, Martinez should be back in the lineup against the left handed Jose Quintana. While Quintana is a good pitcher, and Martinez's best days are behind him, he'll be batting 5th behind some right handed hitters that are just way better against lefties - Kinsler, Cabrera, and Martinez. Martinez's high contact approach and the preference of the fellas in front of him to hit against lefties should make for a nice high floor, relatively cheap combo.

Evan Gattis - FD 3300 DK 3900 StarsDraft 4900
Opponent- LAA (Santiago) L Park- @Hou
The man to turn to if upside is your thing. Gattis is now up to 26 home runs, which would tie him for the league lead at catcher if he qualified at the position. Thankfully, he does qualify for daily fantasy sports! Gattis has a couple of great things going for him here. First, he'll be hitting in his friendly home park. Next, he'll be facing one of the league's very worst starting pitchers, who also happens to allow tons of upside. Santiago has the league's 3rd worst xFIP (among qualified pitchers) largely on the back of the league's very worst ground-ball rate (30.4%). Get him out of the spacious Anaheim, and things can really go to plaid on him. Love Gattis for big tournaments here.

High floor options: Yasmani Grandal, Russell Martin.

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First base

So - a quick excuse here. I've just come down with some nasty bug in the middle of these picks, so I'm going to keep it fairly short as I finish things up. Wish me luck!

Paul Goldschmidt - FD 4000 DK 4900 StarsDraft 5300
Opponent- Lad (Wood) L Park- @Lad
The world's best hitter against left handed pitching (1.140 OPS) will often get the nod when he isn't at exorbitant prices. Alex Wood has taken a big step back this season - he's shaved his K/9 down from 8.91 down to 6.74, and he's walking 25% more batters as well. I'll take Goldschmidt basically everywhere, since this is absolutely a day you can afford him.

Freddie Freeman - FD 3400 DK 4300 StarsDraft 5200
Opponent- Nym (Verrett) R Park- @NYM
Freeman has a .908 OPS against right handed pitching this season, which is good, because his OPS against lefties is a positively dismal .669. Still, with a 12% BB rate and a 16% K rate, Freeman has a very solid approach that gives him a nice high floor against the non-ace right handers in the league. While Logan Verrett has had a few promising starts this season, it's pretty clear that he's something far removed from anything resembling an ace. If for some reason you want to not play Goldschmidt, he makes a good off-beat play.

Consider: Miggy was pretty close to Goldschmidt in our system, but I like Goldie better because of his match-up. You could also consider Brandon Belt, in a similar price range to Freeman.

 

Second base

Jason Kipnis - FD 2900 DK 4500 StarsDraft 5000
Opponent- Min (Santana) R Park- @Min
It was a toss-up for me between Kipnis and Cano, but I landed on Kipnis just due to this season's track record. He's tortured right handed pitching for a .902 OPS this season, and he has a great match-up with the Twins' Ervin Santana. Santana's gone back to being the pitcher he was during his sorry 2012 campaign - allowing home-runs at a breakneck pace, and posting a simply terrible 4.51 xFIP. While Kipnis doesn't have the conventional power/speed upside, he might get the counting stat opportunity here to make up for it.

Robinson Cano - FD 3200 DK 4300 StarsDraft 5400
Opponent- KC (Guthrie) R Park- @KC
It was hard to pass up on Cano given his match-up - the worst pitcher in the league to last a starter wire to wire this season. Guthrie would have the league's worst xFIP (5.17) if he could manage to stay in enough games to qualify, and he is also one of only a small handful of pitchers to have an xFIP higher than his Ks/9. While Cano's season line isn't as impressive as Kipnis', he's been a terror since the beginning of July, posting a .900+ OPS against pitchers of all handedness. I can definitely see playing him anywhere here.

 

Shortstop

Brandon Crawford - FD 2200 DK 3100 StarsDraft 3800
Opponent- SD (Ross) R Park- @SD
There's a pile of cheap guys at the top of the shortstop rankings in our system tonight (today being a day that ends in "Y" after all), so I'll just give you a little sample. Brandon Crawford's truly been terrible during September, and this is made him a minimum player. But his season line should help you realize he's something far more than a minimum player, especially against a right handed pitcher. He's got a .784 OPS and a .219 ISO against righties this season. Ross is a good pitcher, but this is a straight value play.

Carlos Correa - FD 3500 DK 4700 StarsDraft 4700
Opponent- LAA (Santiago) L Park- @Hou
Like I mentioned above, I prefer just going cheap at shortstop today, but if you want to spend up, our system can tolerate Correa against the awful Santiago. Correa's got a fantastic .899 OPS and 7 homers in 123 plate appearances against left handers this season, and it stands to reason that if he can do that against a random sampling of lefties, he can do even better against a bottom-feeder like Santiago.

Third base

Evan Longoria - FD 3100 DK 4000 StarsDraft 4900
Opponent- Bos (Owens) L Park- @Bos
Gave you Longoria last night for literally the exact same reasons, so why don't I quote my favorite fantasy analyst of all-time, myself:

He has a .953 OPS against left handed pitching this season, and this is just a tick up from his clearly sustainable .920+ figure that you've been able to count on him for even as he hasn't rounded out into the superstar many pictured he'd be.

As of this writing, Longoria has doubled in a run in the 1st, and life is good. The good news is, Henry Owens is an even better than Eduardo Rodriguez was last night, and our system likes Longo even more than it did then. He's a go in all formats.

Aramis Ramirez - FD 3500 DK 4400 StarsDraft 5200
Opponent- Col (Rusin) L Park- @Col
Okay, really feeling awful now (physically - I'm sick!), so I'm going to make these short. Ramirez blasted a homer last night against Jon Gray, and Chris Rusin is both A) worse and B) left handed, making A-Ram an even better play tonight. Just an upside play, since he can def disappear on you, but I love him for big tourneys.

Adrian Beltre - FD 3300 DK 4500 StarsDraft 5300
Opponent- Oak (Nolin) L Park- @Oak
Beltre's been a lefty-crusher his whole career, and has really turned a corner in terms of his approach in the second half of the season. He's got less upside than either of the above guys given his tough park, but Sean Nolin is barely a major leaguer. Great spot for Beltre here.

 

Outfield

Andrew McCutchen - FD 5200 DK 5800 StarsDraft 6300
Opponent- Col (Rusin) L Park- @Col
Starling Marte - FD 4200 DK 5300 StarsDraft 5400
Opponent- Col (Rusin) L Park- @Col
Coors against a lefty? That's probably all of the explanation you need here. Sure, I could patronize you with the career lefty splits for these guys (.989 and .881 OPS's respectively). Or that the ballpark is of course a launching pad. Or that Chris Rusin strikes out less than six batters per nine. I could tell you all that, but I won't. Just know that with the state of pitching today, you can afford these guys.

George Springer - FD 3300 DK 4400 StarsDraft 5200
Opponent- LAA (Santiago) L Park- @Hou
Springer's put together a very solid season thanks in part to cutting down the K's from his freshman campaign while really handling lefties on the season. Springer's put up elite splits against southpaws with an .882 OPS and 146 wRC+. Dude's mashed when these guys are on the mound and today he has another pitcher ripe for the picking. Hector Santiago spent the better part of the beginning of the season running super hot with ERA. Sure he K's some guys, but he also walks 3.5 per nine and has an xFIP real damn close to five. There are a few reasons to think about some Astros' stacks today.

Rajai Davis - FD 2700 DK 3600 StarsDraft 4400
Opponent- CWS (Quintana) L Park- @Det
Our system typically loves him when a lefty is on the mound. And with good reason. He has a career .794 in this platoon with a .348 wOBA. We'll take those king of numbers all day long from a guy in the leadoff slot, with speed to spare and whose salary is kept on the lower side because he bats ninth against righties. His splits are down a little bit this season, but the career track record makes up the difference I think. Jose Quintana's been a bit better than average this season and keeps walks to a minimum. But I just love the price and batting order placement on Rajai.

Jacoby Ellsbury - FD 2700 DK 4000 StarsDraft 4900
Opponent- Tor (Estrada) R Park- @Tor
Price has really come down thanks a very rough second half of the season. A lot (but not all) of it is BABIP related. The .249 mark since the All-Star Break is well below his career average and has driven down his production all around. But it's also driven down the price. He's still hitting at the top of the lineup and the Rogers Centre is right up there with the best hitter's parks in baseball. I like buying real low on Ells, especially on FanDuel.

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