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featured Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

09/22/2015
Doug Norrie

Daily NFL Fantasy Football Thoughts for FanDuel and DraftKings Heading into Week 3

Week Two is in the books and it was a Sunday full of big plays, frustrating performances and a ton of injuries. The latter piece will really effect a bunch of games heading into Week 3. I won't get too much into prognosticating how the bumps and bruises will tilt this Sunday's action. That's typically better to do later in the week. For now, let's just look at a few things that came up in Week Two.

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Popular Defenses Made Many Unhappy

Starting Defensive/Special Teams in fantasy can be a tricky and often frustrating venture. Their point distributions will sometimes vary wildly because on the off chance one group gets in the end zone, or has a fumble (or two) bounce their way then the whole thing goes pear-shaped. If your process for choosing team defenses is targeting projected low scoring games with a money line favorite as your D, then you probably started one of these four team.

[table id=191 /]

That's 65% of the defenses i case games and they put up a combined 8 points. Now the good news was if started one of these defense, they probably weren't totally sinking your ship as a majority of the money got little to nothing out of their D. Employing a conservative strategy like, over the long haul, will net you points (assuming Vegas has it's sh@# together). But it was a tough one this week. It doesn't make me want to pivot off this process by any stretch of the imagination. But we also have to know that in the early weeks of an NFL season, Vegas is figuring things out just like we are.

Adrian Peterson Back to On-the-field AP

If this is going to be Adrian Peterson's workload, then watch out. After getting only a few looks in Week One, his first game back from his "time away" from the Vikings, Minny force fed him the ball in week two. And he delivered. We was responsible for about 55% of the Vikings total yards (192 ) from scrimmage, carrying the ball 29 time and getting 2 passing targets. This was about 52% of the Vikings plays. This week the Vikings play the Chargers who are coming off a game in which they allowed 162 to Gio Bernard and Jeremy Hill. The only thing that kept AP from really hitting the stratosphere was getting held without a touchdown. That doesn't figure to last and Peterson could put up monster numbers this week.

Antonio Brown, A Man Among Other Very Big Men

Is there a safer guy in the whole NFL than Brown? Now that I've said this have I doomed the guy for life? Probably. But all kidding aside, Brown's beginning to the season is nothing short of spectacular. Sure, he hasn't come out of nowhere. But this carryover from last season, the amount of targets and yards is just stunning. In the first two weeks he has 19% more receiving yards than the second highest player (Julio Jones) and a crazy 60% more than number three on the list (Rob Gronkowski). He's just been an animal.

But understand something about Brown, he's converted 81/% of his targets this season (he's about 66% for his career). His production in this respect probably isn't sustainable. This isn't to say he's going to lay an egg any time soon. But be wary, the yards and receptions might even out a bit as we move forward.

Is Belichick Trolling us With Dion Lewis?

This feels like a classic Belichik move right? He gets Lewis on the field a ton in the first two games, and dude becomes a seemingly vital cog in the offense machine that is New England. 22 carries and ten receptions in the first two weeks. We all start thinking, "Hey, the Pats have their RB and they'll use him all the time. Midrange value looks good against Jacksonville." And then bam, we get LegGarrette Blount all the time. I have no idea if this will happen, but I just feel like we've been down the New England running back hole before. It doesn't often end well for anyone but the Patriots.

 

image sources

  • A._Peterson_2013: By MN National Guard [CC BY 3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

2 Visitor Comments

  1. Thanks Doug. Some useful info there. When do Raybon’s picks come out? It’s Wednesday already. Time flies.

  2. What ever happened to the Podcast that ended abruptly last year? I always looked forward to listening to it before setting my Fanduel lineups each NFL Sunday. Hope you guys bring it back again someday!

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