Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, StarsDraft and DraftPot 9/30/15

A disclaimer on these daily baseball picks for tonight: many of the lineups are going to be altered due to the rain last night and the postseason coming up. Be sure to check the lineups of the players you ultimately decide to play and make sure they're starting before you submit your final lineup.

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Pitchers

Drew Smyly - FD 8700 DK 9900 StarsDraft
Opponent- Mia (Cosart) R Park- @TB
I don't really like any of the high priced arms going tonight, so I'm going to rely on the medium priced arms. Drew Smyly's price has risen a good amount throughout the season in large part because his performance has warranted it. Smyly has a 10+ K/9 rate and an xFIP that's hovering around 3.5. These numbers are well above average, and he's been really hot recently (putting up 17+ FD points in 3 of his last 5). The Marlins have been a little above average against lefties this year, so this makes me a little nervous, but I still think there's enough upside here. I don't love the matchup, but Smyly is one of the safest arms on the slate for your 50/50's and multipliers.

Andrew Cashner - FD 7300 DK 6100 StarsDraft
Opponent- Mil (Davies) R Park- @Sd
Another medium priced arm that you should consider is Andrew Cashner. He hasn't been quite as good as Smyly this year, but he does have a few things working in his favor tonight. For starters, he's facing the Brewers, who are below average against right-handed pitching. The Brewers are also striking out at about a 21% rate against righties, meaning there's potential for Cashner to pile up some K's. Lastly, this game is being played in the pitcher-friendly confines of Petco Park, which depresses power all around. This isn't the safest pick in the world, but I certainly think there's enough upside to grab Cashner, especially at this lowered price point.

Tyler Lyons - FD 5100 DK 4300 StarsDraft
Opponent- Pit (Cole) R Park- @Pit
This is strictly a large tournament play only, and even still comes with a few contingencies. The main reason we're writing him for the games tonight is that Lyons is a quality pitcher coming at a price point normally reserved for elite hitters. But what could really push this value over the top is if the Cardinals clinch the division, and the Pirates decide to rest a bunch of guys. If that happens, I'm rolling with Lyons in all my big tourney's. Otherwise, pick him at your own risk going against the likes of Andrew Mccutchen and Starling Marte.

Catchers

John Jaso - FD 2200 DK 2600 StarsDraft 3800
Opponent- Mia (Cosart) R Park- @TB
I don't really like any of the higher priced options at catcher tonight, so I recommend saving some money and moving on. John Jaso is an excellent way to go cheap and not get burned. Jason normally hits near the top of the order, which only adds to the value that his 0.800 OPS against righties already provides. Now add in the fact that he'll be facing Jarred Cosart, the owner of a less than stellar 4.43 xFIP, and you've really got something here.

Stephen Vogt - FD 2200 DK 3200 StarsDraft 4100
Opponent- LAA (Richards) R Park- @Ana
Again, another super cheap option you could go with is Stephen Vogt. He's a little more risky than Jaso because his pitching matchup is worse, but he also comes with a little more upside. Vogt has a 0.840 OPS against righties to go along with 18 HR's on the year, meaning he's got plenty of power to go around. Garret Richards is not quite as good as his ERA might suggest, so I think Vogt has a real chance to have a strong game tonight. He's not a lock to put up big numbers, but you could do a lot worse for this low of a price.

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First base

Albert Pujols - FD 3100 DK 3800 StarsDraft 5200
Opponent- Oak (Zito) L Park- @ana
Been absolutely in love with the price we are getting on Pujols right now. Last night he did damage against Bassitt and company, even throwing in a stolen base just to sweeten the pot. Even with the salary creeping up just a tad, I'm still all over him against Barry Zito today. Pujols is running ridiculously bad this season in his BABIP against lefties with the number sitting at a gross .179. Even for a guy who wouldn't be a favorite in a sprint at the local senior citizen center, this is an amazing amount of bad luck. Still buy while the power upside is there on the cheap.

Lucas Duda - FD 3800 DK 4100 StarsDraft 5100
Opponent- Phi (Asher) R Park- @Phi
Last time I recommended him he didn't play, then goes out last night and blasts two more HR's, bringing his count to 5 in his last 3 games. This dude is red-hot right now, and I'm a believer that this streak is going to last at least one more game. Alec Asher is rocking an xFIP above 5.2 against left-handed batters on the season, not to mention a BB/9 rate closing in on 3. He doesn't strike a lot of guys out either, meaning Duda should have plenty of opportunities to make contact with that red-hot bat of his. I like Duda across all formats.

Mike Napoli - FD 2200 DK 3400 StarsDraft 4400
Opponent- Det (Boyd) L Park- @Tex
Assuming he plays, this is an incredible high-upside play. Napoli absolutely destroys southpaw pitching, with an elite 0.947 OPS in this split. The only real downside Napoli presents is that he strikes out quite a bit. Enter Matt Boyd, owner of a K/9 rate south of 7, and a BB/9 rate getting awfully close to 3. Napoli will get plenty of chances to make some contact tonight, and when he does the ball usually goes a long way, particularly in the hitter-friendly Texas ballpark.

 

Second base

Jason Kipnis - FD 2900 DK 4700 StarsDraft 5000
Opponent- Min (Pelfrey) R Park- @Cle
As long as his price remains this low and he's facing a below average righty, we're going to keep throwing this guy out here. If you want an explanation, here's what Doug wrote about Kipnis last night as it holds true for tonight against Palfrey.
I think he's a little too expensive on DraftKings where you will need to allocate your dollars a bit more judiciously. But on FanDuel he remains an amazing bargain. Kipnis, form the leadoff slot is in a great spot to put up points in this matchup. Kipnis walks at around an 11% rate against righties and doesn't strike out a ton. On the flip side, Kyle Gibson doesn't strike many batters out and walks close to three per nine. I think the on base expectation is high for Kipnis in this matchup and his FD price is almost too good to pass up.

Jose Altuve - FD 3300 DK 4900 StarsDraft 5000
Opponent- Sea (Paxton) L Park- @Sea
Again, not to get repetitive, but he's got almost the exact same matchup as the past two days. Here's what Doug wrote the other day, and again it holds true tonight.
Altuve has just manhandled lefty pitching over the last couple of seasons with an OPS real close to 1.000 thanks in some part to an elevated BABIP. But luck doesn't tell the whole story here. He's very difficult for lefties to strike out and makes so much contact that he's a favorite to put up some points in this matchup. Altuve has a 169 wRC+ and .417 wOBA just this season in his lefty platoon. These are elite numbers and only the ballpark gives me a little hesitation about playing the guy.

 

Shortstop

Carlos Correa - FD 3500 DK 4600 StarsDraft 4600
Opponent- Sea (Paxton) L Park- @Sea
We've had him a few days in a row and I don't want to stop now. Not like he's the new Jhonny Peralta or anything (no one, in our eyes, will ever be Jhonny Peralta), but getting Correa in the mid 3K range on FanDuel for a middle of the order hitter who's crushed lefties this season is just too good a deal to pass up (and exhale). The ballpark does no favors, though the Astros have been fine enough scoring some runs here and there since coming to Safeco. Paxton is a better pitcher than Elias or Nuno, but I'm still comfortable playing Correa.

Erick Aybar - FD 2300 DK 2900 StarsDraft 4200
Opponent- Oak (Zito) L Park- @ana
This is what we said yesterday about Aybar, and sometimes great wisdom (as if there's another kind) holds true for more than a few days in a row in daily fantasy. When the relevant factors are rather static (batting order placement, bad pitcher, etc) then playing a guy a few days in a row at a similar price will make sense. What we said yesterday:
The only reason I'm even considering Aybar is if he's still hitting in the leadoff slot. As we've said all season, plate appearance expectation makes a huge difference in terms of your daily fantasy averages. And since most shortstops are physically averse to hitting, we don't mind taking ones on the cheap if their teams make a mistake and put them in in the leadoff slot. Aybar has no business there in real baseball, but what do we care? Hitting in front of Trout and Pujols has it's advantages at the minimums.

Third base

Adrian Beltre - FD 3500 DK 4400 StarsDraft 5400
Opponent- Det (Boyd) L Park- @Tex
Hey, here's a fresh pick! Adrian Beltre draws a nice matchup tonight against Matt Boyd, who just isn't quite ready for the big leagues. This bodes well for Beltre, who has an OPS nearly 0.200 points higher against southpaws. The ballpark factor is also a big plus here, as Beltre has an OPS nearly 0.250 points higher at home than on the road, and that's no accident. I like the floor, and I also like the potential for a big game here.

David Freese - FD 2500 DK 3100 StarsDraft 4100
Opponent- Oak (Zito) L Park- @ana
A nice play that goes against the grain is David Freese. Dude's been hurt for a considerable part of the season, but when he's healthy he's a nightmare for left-handed pitchers (and last time I checked, Barry Zito wasn't ambidextrous). For his career, Freese has a wOBA of 0.362 and an OPS close to 0.850, which are well above average. A little more on Zito, his best days are firmly behind him, which is sad for me to say since he used to be one of my favorite pitchers. But I digress. Go with Freese if you want a high-upside guy who a lot of people probably won't pick.

 

Outfield

Mike Trout - FD 4800 DK 4900 StarsDraft 5900
Opponent- Oak (Zito) L Park- @ana
I'm not going to continue to go after Barry Zito's reputation, but he is what he is at this point. And as we all know, Trout is the cream of the crop in terms of hitting in the big leagues, and this matchup is just too good to pass up. It might be tough to squeeze him into your lineup, but I'd highly recommend finding a way to make it work.

Curtis Granderson - FD 3500 DK 4700 StarsDraft 5100
Opponent- Phi (Asher) R Park- @Phi
Again, with the postseason on the horizon, it's hard to say whether or not Granderson is going to play in this one. I recommend monitoring the situation, and if he plays, you need to play him (that sounds weird, but oh well). Granderson is abusing right-handed pitching on the season with an OPS near 0.900 and a wOBA of 0.382 out of the lead-off spot. I've mentioned that Alec Asher isn't a very good pitcher, so Granderson is a pretty safe bet to put up some good numbers if he plays.

George Springer - FD 3300 DK 4200 StarsDraft 4900
Opponent- Sea (Paxton) L Park- @Sea
Another guy we've been big on the past couple of days due to his matchup against left-handed pitching is George Springer. If you read this site fairly regularly, you know by now that this guy is elite against southpaws, and that translates very well to his lowered price point. James Paxton is slightly below average at the big league level, so I expect Springer to have another strong game here.

Dexter Fowler - FD 2800 DK 4400 StarsDraft 4500
Opponent- Cin (Desclafani) R Park- @Cin
His price has really come down recently, and that's when we at DFSR like to buy, buy, buy. Fowler possesses a truly rare combination of power and speed, as evidenced by his 17 HR's and 20 SB's. DeSclafani has really struggled at home and against lefties this year, mainly due to the fact that Great American Ballpark acts as a launching pad for left-handed batters. Fowler drops a stinker every now and again, but he's got enough upside that I think you can scoop him up for these prices and be alright.

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